Here you go:
Betfair chart / Betfair graph of the day
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
Thanks LinusP, that's impressive.
Good charts, and as I posted yesterday (but in the reverse direction), you can see just how little it takes to move prices to outlandish levels. Not only that, but the market collectively pays you for doing so! This stuff is happening dozens of times a day now.
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
Perhaps too many people tried to catch the knife
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- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
I thought the mantra was that a big volume spike initiates a drift? {search this thread for 'volume spike drift'}
I know there's always an exception that proves every rule, but shouldn't that have been a textbook 2.0 bottom Simon? I guess the argument will be that the spike didn't start a drift so a minute later the steam would continue. Or is that just aftertiming?
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
That £5000 was front-run, then matched very "gently" - it was "nibbled at" by lots of small traders (£100's, £200's). That still classed as a spike?ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Nov 27, 2018 3:13 pmI thought the mantra was that a big volume spike initiates a drift? {search this thread for 'volume spike drift'}
I know there's always an exception that proves every rule, but shouldn't that have been a textbook 2.0 bottom Simon? I guess the argument will be that the spike didn't start a drift so a minute later the steam would continue. Or is that just aftertiming?
That said, I wasn't even looking at volume & if Peter thinks I'm bullshittin', I'll send him why I didn't need it - then he can hopefully explain how these big volume spikes will make my trading even better (although he is dang risk averse when it comes to sharing cold hard instantly tradable knowledge)
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- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
So you could see that as backing money and not a big lay? It can't have been that slow if the volume showed up like that on the BF chart. It looked just like all the other prime examples that get posted...and I don't see much qualification about fillrate/'is it really a spike'/'what direction was it' on those? But I guess that's why a manual trader staring at a ladder has an edge over a statistitianruthlessimon wrote: ↑Tue Nov 27, 2018 4:16 pmThat £5000 was front-run, then matched very "gently" - it was "nibbled at" by lots of small traders (£100's, £200's). That still classed as a spike?
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
That's right, someone, possibly Peter (cos he rarely uses market orders does he) - wanted a £5k back @ 2.0. Data can't see the £5k - but given that same token - that makes it difficult to "backtest" longtermShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Nov 27, 2018 4:29 pmSo you could see that as backing money and not a big lay? It can't have been that slow if the volume showed up like that on the BF chart. It looked just like all the other prime examples that get posted...and I don't see much qualification about fillrate/'is it really a spike'/'what direction was it' on those? But I guess that's why a manual trader staring at a ladder has an edge over a statistitian
But the idea that if that money gets filled, means that £5k trader is instantly wrong is ludicrous to me.
Bceause:
1. He pulls the £5k - labelled as "manipulation" - possible drift
2. He gets filled - labelled as a "lay spike" - possible drift
Doesn't make sense to me - Might as well not use volume if both occurrences = potential drift
Also there was other stuff going on in that market - so perhaps it was an exception (lay spike, steam) - but was overridden due to stronger signals elsewhere.
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Your comments don't really need a +1.... but in this case... +1.
Stats are a guide, but the more you can see, the less you need a guide....i guess.