Today's Horse Racing
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Today really feels like a POETS day. You can't beat being your own boss.
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Surely that's incorrect. Bookies win when favourites lose (generalisation), and if the fav was very short, some of the odds on boys will be losing lumps. The 100/1 outsider might only have had a tenner on it and the 1.2 shot will have 100s of 1000s. They'll cut and cut a popular fav because they don't want any more liability.Derek27 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:36 pmNo, only punters who backed the loser will have less money and they won't have had their life savings on it!dragontrades wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:26 pmDo things like this affect the following markets?
Punters having less money?
Are there any (ex)bookies here who can confirm that?
i'm judging it mainly by the amateur dramatics they do on a saturday after a string of favourites have landed, and by the way an afternoon can dry up after few losing shorties.
I also don't think Euler would have mentioned it unless it was going to have an effect. His comments are sometimes enigmatic but hardly ever just narrative.
I remember reading an article about this ages ago (no idea where) but someone had done some research into bookies profits if a string of short priced favs win. Their conclusion was (surprise surprise) it made very little difference to their bottom line, they still made a profit.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sat Oct 21, 2017 4:47 am
i'm judging it mainly by the amateur dramatics they do on a saturday after a string of favourites have landed, and by the way an afternoon can dry up after few losing shorties.
The bookies like us to think they have been hit in the pocket when a lot of favs win but if they are managing their books correctly they should still come out on top no matter the outcome of the race.
Anyone who loses his life savings on the first race of the day, won't be out for the day but out for good!ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sat Oct 21, 2017 4:47 amSurely that's incorrect. Bookies win when favourites lose (generalisation), and if the fav was very short, some of the odds on boys will be losing lumps. The 100/1 outsider might only have had a tenner on it and the 1.2 shot will have 100s of 1000s. They'll cut and cut a popular fav because they don't want any more liability.Derek27 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:36 pmNo, only punters who backed the loser will have less money and they won't have had their life savings on it!dragontrades wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:26 pm
Do things like this affect the following markets?
Punters having less money?
Are there any (ex)bookies here who can confirm that?
i'm judging it mainly by the amateur dramatics they do on a saturday after a string of favourites have landed, and by the way an afternoon can dry up after few losing shorties.
I also don't think Euler would have mentioned it unless it was going to have an effect. His comments are sometimes enigmatic but hardly ever just narrative.
You're making the assumption that there's a group of "odds on boys" who lump on every odd-on favourite big time. A punter may be interested in one odd-on favourite and not another, so a different group of people could be backing the other favourite.
One thing we can be certain about is that people who primarily back odd-on favourites lose - but they're getting the money from somewhere!
I didn't see the market but it was the same one that wouldn't load via streaming earlier today
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=7400&start=9536
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
I didn't say that, I did say 'the odds on boys' but I didn't think I had to qualify that with 'some of...' rather than 'all of...' , which seemed pretty obvious. I basically agree with your statement, that's why I feel the issue is compounded when several lose.
No doubt the 'pros' carry on punting the value horses regardless, but the influence of 'pros' is slightly over-rated imho on a saturday. The daily volumes vary, maybe partly dependant on how many value horses the pros perceive there to be, but as traders we don't analyse that. Yet on a Saturday, volumes are consistantly high, therefore the proportion of pro money is probably lower. Don't shoot be down it's only a hunch. I just feel 'pro' money is a bigger factor midweek.
Don't count me in that 'we', I couldn't disagree more. It totally depends on whether they're getting value. Value makes profit, not odds. Trading/gambling it's all about risk & reward aka value.
Do high profile losers affect later volume?...I dunno. Do I care? Probably not. I'm only speculating from what I think I see day in and day out. I'm sure you could find the definitive answer in the data but it might be difficult. It's not a big enough issue for me so I haven't looked for it.