Today's Horse Racing

The sport of kings.
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Derek27
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Oct 21, 2017 4:47 am
Derek27 wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:36 pm
dragontrades wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:26 pm

Do things like this affect the following markets?
Punters having less money?
No, only punters who backed the loser will have less money and they won't have had their life savings on it!
Surely that's incorrect. Bookies win when favourites lose (generalisation), and if the fav was very short, some of the odds on boys will be losing lumps. The 100/1 outsider might only have had a tenner on it and the 1.2 shot will have 100s of 1000s. They'll cut and cut a popular fav because they don't want any more liability.

Are there any (ex)bookies here who can confirm that?

i'm judging it mainly by the amateur dramatics they do on a saturday after a string of favourites have landed, and by the way an afternoon can dry up after few losing shorties.

I also don't think Euler would have mentioned it unless it was going to have an effect. His comments are sometimes enigmatic but hardly ever just narrative.
Anyone who loses his life savings on the first race of the day, won't be out for the day but out for good!

You're making the assumption that there's a group of "odds on boys" who lump on every odd-on favourite big time. A punter may be interested in one odd-on favourite and not another, so a different group of people could be backing the other favourite.

One thing we can be certain about is that people who primarily back odd-on favourites lose - but they're getting the money from somewhere!
jjrrjj
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cross matching went crazy on that wolverhampton 20:15 IP, see it hit nearly 200% at one point
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Dallas
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jjrrjj wrote:
Sat Oct 21, 2017 8:27 pm
cross matching went crazy on that wolverhampton 20:15 IP, see it hit nearly 200% at one point
I didn't see the market but it was the same one that wouldn't load via streaming earlier today
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=7400&start=9536
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ShaunWhite
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Oct 21, 2017 4:45 pm
You're making the assumption that there's a group of "odds on boys" who lump on every odd-on favourite big time. A punter may be interested in one odd-on favourite and not another, so a different group of people could be backing the other favourite.
I didn't say that, I did say 'the odds on boys' but I didn't think I had to qualify that with 'some of...' rather than 'all of...' , which seemed pretty obvious. I basically agree with your statement, that's why I feel the issue is compounded when several lose.

No doubt the 'pros' carry on punting the value horses regardless, but the influence of 'pros' is slightly over-rated imho on a saturday. The daily volumes vary, maybe partly dependant on how many value horses the pros perceive there to be, but as traders we don't analyse that. Yet on a Saturday, volumes are consistantly high, therefore the proportion of pro money is probably lower. Don't shoot be down it's only a hunch. I just feel 'pro' money is a bigger factor midweek.
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Oct 21, 2017 4:45 pm
One thing we can be certain about is that people who primarily back odd-on favourites lose - but they're getting the money from somewhere!
Don't count me in that 'we', I couldn't disagree more. It totally depends on whether they're getting value. Value makes profit, not odds. Trading/gambling it's all about risk & reward aka value.

Do high profile losers affect later volume?...I dunno. Do I care? Probably not. I'm only speculating from what I think I see day in and day out. I'm sure you could find the definitive answer in the data but it might be difficult. It's not a big enough issue for me so I haven't looked for it.
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Euler
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Heavily backed losers do affect the rest of the card, but as always there are many variables.
invisiblelayer
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Fair punt in the first on the Mick Applejuice runner at Southwell
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to75ne
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easiest trade for ages, think i will pack and go down tyhe pub. :)
cyxstudio
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Euler!! Just saw your latest video about how prices move, when 1 horse steams the others will drift. These are fairly common knowledge but just want to know what was the point of you creating that video.

Even if we know that the prices in the same race react off one another they usually happen simultaneously so there isnt much to exploit?
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Derek27
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Oct 22, 2017 5:40 am
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Oct 21, 2017 4:45 pm
One thing we can be certain about is that people who primarily back odd-on favourites lose - but they're getting the money from somewhere!
Don't count me in that 'we', I couldn't disagree more. It totally depends on whether they're getting value. Value makes profit, not odds. Trading/gambling it's all about risk & reward aka value.
Apologies if my post sounded patronising.

The reason I said the above is because, although odd-on shots can represent value (Big Bucks was the last odd-on shot I recall backing), it is quite rare. So punters with a good sense of value are likely to back far more odds-against than odd-on. Punters who primarily back odds-on shots are not likely to be profitable.
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ShaunWhite
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Apolology accept Derek. No problem there.

I think value can be found on all horses these days ... Have you seen how those graphs move! One of those numbers is right and all the rest are wrong.

There's a lot of people in trading realising that overextended prices hold real straight punting value. But I'm going to leave the dark art of pricing markets to the pro 'gamblers'.

Even massive moves might just be going to true value so it's a minefield without being a guru on the fundamentals. In fact if bsp reflects outcomes (and I think they do in big samples) then the 'right' price is the last one. If you can predict where that will be, you can estimate the back or lay value at any time prior to that. That's another monster job that's in the notebook somewhere ;)
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LeTiss
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Some strange early morning activity on Cheque En Blanc in the 3.30 Plumpton
invisiblelayer
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LeTiss wrote:
Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:14 am
Some strange early morning activity on Cheque En Blanc in the 3.30 Plumpton
Bit of money around for Stoical Patient race before same yard, not on that scale though.
Korattt
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invisiblelayer wrote:
Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:33 am
LeTiss wrote:
Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:14 am
Some strange early morning activity on Cheque En Blanc in the 3.30 Plumpton
Bit of money around for Stoical Patient race before same yard, not on that scale though.
say no Moore..
Korattt
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wtf happened in the 14:50?
dt888
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Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2011 9:25 pm

ffs 14.50 turned in play 3 mins out
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