Still haven't managed to sort out my Firefox issue with file types.
Today's Horse Racing
Returns to £100 stakes when backing the favourite yesterday and trading out at post time were £225.88
Ling - 12:10 - Lay to open @ 3.65 to 3.95 for 6 ticks & £7.59
Hex - 12:20 - Back to open @ 1.61 to 1.49 for 12 ticks & £8.05
Ling - 12:40 - Lay to open @ 5.00 to 5.20 for 2 ticks & £3.85
Hex - 12:50 - Lay to open @ 4.10 to 5.20 for 11 ticks & £21.15
Leic - 13:00 - Back to open @ 3.10 to 2.06 for 49 ticks & £50.49
Ling - 13:10 - Back to open @ 3.15 to 2.48 for 29 ticks & £27.02
Hex - 13:20 - Back to open @ 1.65 to 1.49 for 16 ticks & £10.74
Leic - 13:30 - Lay to open @ 2.10 to 2.16 for 3 ticks & £2.78
Ling - 13:40 - Back to open @ 2.14 to 1.80 for 27 ticks & £18.89
Hex - 13:50 - Back to open @ 2.82 to 2.36 for 23 ticks & £19.49
Leic - 14:00 - Lay to open @ 4.50 to 6.20 for 16 ticks & £27.42
Ling - 14:10 - Back to open @ 5.70 to 5.20 for 5 ticks & £9.62
Hex - 14:20 - Lay to open @ 6.20 to 6.40 for 1 ticks & £3.13
Leic - 14:30 - Back to open @ 2.76 to 2.08 for 34 ticks & £32.69
Ling - 14:40 - Lay to open @ 3.65 to 3.95 for 6 ticks & £7.59
Hex - 14:50 - Lay to open @ 3.80 to 4.30 for 7 ticks & £11.63
Leic - 15:00 - Lay to open @ 3.75 to 5.70 for 22 ticks & £34.21
Ling - 15:10 - Back to open @ 2.80 to 2.62 for 9 ticks & £6.87
Hex - 15:20 - Back to open @ 3.30 to 2.68 for 22 ticks & £23.13
Leic - 15:30 - Back to open @ 1.94 to 1.80 for 14 ticks & £7.78
Kemp - 15:40 - Back to open @ 3.45 to 2.76 for 21 ticks & £25.00
Kemp - 16:15 - Back to open @ 5.00 to 3.35 for 23 ticks & £49.25
Kemp - 16:45 - Back to open @ 2.88 to 2.16 for 36 ticks & £33.33
Kemp - 17:15 - Back to open @ 1.87 to 1.79 for 8 ticks & £4.47
Kemp - 17:45 - Back to open @ 3.40 to 3.35 for 1 ticks & £1.49
Kemp - 18:15 - Back to open @ 3.90 to 3.70 for 4 ticks & £5.41
Kemp - 18:45 - Lay to open @ 3.70 to 4.40 for 10 ticks & £15.91
Kemp - 19:15 - Back to open @ 3.95 to 3.10 for 17 ticks & £27.42
Ling - 12:10 - Lay to open @ 3.65 to 3.95 for 6 ticks & £7.59
Hex - 12:20 - Back to open @ 1.61 to 1.49 for 12 ticks & £8.05
Ling - 12:40 - Lay to open @ 5.00 to 5.20 for 2 ticks & £3.85
Hex - 12:50 - Lay to open @ 4.10 to 5.20 for 11 ticks & £21.15
Leic - 13:00 - Back to open @ 3.10 to 2.06 for 49 ticks & £50.49
Ling - 13:10 - Back to open @ 3.15 to 2.48 for 29 ticks & £27.02
Hex - 13:20 - Back to open @ 1.65 to 1.49 for 16 ticks & £10.74
Leic - 13:30 - Lay to open @ 2.10 to 2.16 for 3 ticks & £2.78
Ling - 13:40 - Back to open @ 2.14 to 1.80 for 27 ticks & £18.89
Hex - 13:50 - Back to open @ 2.82 to 2.36 for 23 ticks & £19.49
Leic - 14:00 - Lay to open @ 4.50 to 6.20 for 16 ticks & £27.42
Ling - 14:10 - Back to open @ 5.70 to 5.20 for 5 ticks & £9.62
Hex - 14:20 - Lay to open @ 6.20 to 6.40 for 1 ticks & £3.13
Leic - 14:30 - Back to open @ 2.76 to 2.08 for 34 ticks & £32.69
Ling - 14:40 - Lay to open @ 3.65 to 3.95 for 6 ticks & £7.59
Hex - 14:50 - Lay to open @ 3.80 to 4.30 for 7 ticks & £11.63
Leic - 15:00 - Lay to open @ 3.75 to 5.70 for 22 ticks & £34.21
Ling - 15:10 - Back to open @ 2.80 to 2.62 for 9 ticks & £6.87
Hex - 15:20 - Back to open @ 3.30 to 2.68 for 22 ticks & £23.13
Leic - 15:30 - Back to open @ 1.94 to 1.80 for 14 ticks & £7.78
Kemp - 15:40 - Back to open @ 3.45 to 2.76 for 21 ticks & £25.00
Kemp - 16:15 - Back to open @ 5.00 to 3.35 for 23 ticks & £49.25
Kemp - 16:45 - Back to open @ 2.88 to 2.16 for 36 ticks & £33.33
Kemp - 17:15 - Back to open @ 1.87 to 1.79 for 8 ticks & £4.47
Kemp - 17:45 - Back to open @ 3.40 to 3.35 for 1 ticks & £1.49
Kemp - 18:15 - Back to open @ 3.90 to 3.70 for 4 ticks & £5.41
Kemp - 18:45 - Lay to open @ 3.70 to 4.40 for 10 ticks & £15.91
Kemp - 19:15 - Back to open @ 3.95 to 3.10 for 17 ticks & £27.42
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- Posts: 686
- Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:29 pm
For a backing the favourite strategy there's a few lays crept into the mix... I see you've been on the forum for a while, you shouldn't be getting your backs and lays mixed up by now.
Euler wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:15 amReturns to £100 stakes when backing the favourite yesterday and trading out at post time were £225.88
Ling - 12:10 - Lay to open @ 3.65 to 3.95 for 6 ticks & £7.59
Hex - 12:20 - Back to open @ 1.61 to 1.49 for 12 ticks & £8.05
Ling - 12:40 - Lay to open @ 5.00 to 5.20 for 2 ticks & £3.85
Hex - 12:50 - Lay to open @ 4.10 to 5.20 for 11 ticks & £21.15
Leic - 13:00 - Back to open @ 3.10 to 2.06 for 49 ticks & £50.49
Ling - 13:10 - Back to open @ 3.15 to 2.48 for 29 ticks & £27.02
Hex - 13:20 - Back to open @ 1.65 to 1.49 for 16 ticks & £10.74
Leic - 13:30 - Lay to open @ 2.10 to 2.16 for 3 ticks & £2.78
Ling - 13:40 - Back to open @ 2.14 to 1.80 for 27 ticks & £18.89
Hex - 13:50 - Back to open @ 2.82 to 2.36 for 23 ticks & £19.49
Leic - 14:00 - Lay to open @ 4.50 to 6.20 for 16 ticks & £27.42
Ling - 14:10 - Back to open @ 5.70 to 5.20 for 5 ticks & £9.62
Hex - 14:20 - Lay to open @ 6.20 to 6.40 for 1 ticks & £3.13
Leic - 14:30 - Back to open @ 2.76 to 2.08 for 34 ticks & £32.69
Ling - 14:40 - Lay to open @ 3.65 to 3.95 for 6 ticks & £7.59
Hex - 14:50 - Lay to open @ 3.80 to 4.30 for 7 ticks & £11.63
Leic - 15:00 - Lay to open @ 3.75 to 5.70 for 22 ticks & £34.21
Ling - 15:10 - Back to open @ 2.80 to 2.62 for 9 ticks & £6.87
Hex - 15:20 - Back to open @ 3.30 to 2.68 for 22 ticks & £23.13
Leic - 15:30 - Back to open @ 1.94 to 1.80 for 14 ticks & £7.78
Kemp - 15:40 - Back to open @ 3.45 to 2.76 for 21 ticks & £25.00
Kemp - 16:15 - Back to open @ 5.00 to 3.35 for 23 ticks & £49.25
Kemp - 16:45 - Back to open @ 2.88 to 2.16 for 36 ticks & £33.33
Kemp - 17:15 - Back to open @ 1.87 to 1.79 for 8 ticks & £4.47
Kemp - 17:45 - Back to open @ 3.40 to 3.35 for 1 ticks & £1.49
Kemp - 18:15 - Back to open @ 3.90 to 3.70 for 4 ticks & £5.41
Kemp - 18:45 - Lay to open @ 3.70 to 4.40 for 10 ticks & £15.91
Kemp - 19:15 - Back to open @ 3.95 to 3.10 for 17 ticks & £27.42
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- Posts: 686
- Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:29 pm
@Euler Slightly more seriously, yesterday was volatile, wasn't it ? Would really appreciate any time you could spend (and anyone else very experienced in horse racing markets) describing them in a little more detail, was there anything in particular that you felt was different? There were a lot of sharp moves all over these markets, it did not suit one of my strategies which was not able to keep up with the speed of the movement...Also seemed to be some sizable open interest on some runners.
What influences your decision to lay or back?
Euler wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:15 amReturns to £100 stakes when backing the favourite yesterday and trading out at post time were £225.88
Ling - 12:10 - Lay to open @ 3.65 to 3.95 for 6 ticks & £7.59
Hex - 12:20 - Back to open @ 1.61 to 1.49 for 12 ticks & £8.05
Ling - 12:40 - Lay to open @ 5.00 to 5.20 for 2 ticks & £3.85
Hex - 12:50 - Lay to open @ 4.10 to 5.20 for 11 ticks & £21.15
Leic - 13:00 - Back to open @ 3.10 to 2.06 for 49 ticks & £50.49
Ling - 13:10 - Back to open @ 3.15 to 2.48 for 29 ticks & £27.02
Hex - 13:20 - Back to open @ 1.65 to 1.49 for 16 ticks & £10.74
Leic - 13:30 - Lay to open @ 2.10 to 2.16 for 3 ticks & £2.78
Ling - 13:40 - Back to open @ 2.14 to 1.80 for 27 ticks & £18.89
Hex - 13:50 - Back to open @ 2.82 to 2.36 for 23 ticks & £19.49
Leic - 14:00 - Lay to open @ 4.50 to 6.20 for 16 ticks & £27.42
Ling - 14:10 - Back to open @ 5.70 to 5.20 for 5 ticks & £9.62
Hex - 14:20 - Lay to open @ 6.20 to 6.40 for 1 ticks & £3.13
Leic - 14:30 - Back to open @ 2.76 to 2.08 for 34 ticks & £32.69
Ling - 14:40 - Lay to open @ 3.65 to 3.95 for 6 ticks & £7.59
Hex - 14:50 - Lay to open @ 3.80 to 4.30 for 7 ticks & £11.63
Leic - 15:00 - Lay to open @ 3.75 to 5.70 for 22 ticks & £34.21
Ling - 15:10 - Back to open @ 2.80 to 2.62 for 9 ticks & £6.87
Hex - 15:20 - Back to open @ 3.30 to 2.68 for 22 ticks & £23.13
Leic - 15:30 - Back to open @ 1.94 to 1.80 for 14 ticks & £7.78
Kemp - 15:40 - Back to open @ 3.45 to 2.76 for 21 ticks & £25.00
Kemp - 16:15 - Back to open @ 5.00 to 3.35 for 23 ticks & £49.25
Kemp - 16:45 - Back to open @ 2.88 to 2.16 for 36 ticks & £33.33
Kemp - 17:15 - Back to open @ 1.87 to 1.79 for 8 ticks & £4.47
Kemp - 17:45 - Back to open @ 3.40 to 3.35 for 1 ticks & £1.49
Kemp - 18:15 - Back to open @ 3.90 to 3.70 for 4 ticks & £5.41
Kemp - 18:45 - Lay to open @ 3.70 to 4.40 for 10 ticks & £15.91
Kemp - 19:15 - Back to open @ 3.95 to 3.10 for 17 ticks & £27.42
There was a large backer in the market yesterday that amplified the results. You wouldn't usually expect such a large bias generally. I checked and it was the 7th highest return on that style in the last two years.Nero Tulip wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:27 am@Euler Slightly more seriously, yesterday was volatile, wasn't it ? Would really appreciate any time you could spend (and anyone else very experienced in horse racing markets) describing them in a little more detail, was there anything in particular that you felt was different? There were a lot of sharp moves all over these markets, it did not suit one of my strategies which was not able to keep up with the speed of the movement...Also seemed to be some sizable open interest on some runners.
That's the best trade in that market regardless of direction. So you will have to unpick various elements from that list.Nero Tulip wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:22 amFor a backing the favourite strategy there's a few lays crept into the mix... I see you've been on the forum for a while, you shouldn't be getting your backs and lays mixed up by now.
I am confused, are you saying it was the best trade in that market after the market and then posting on the forum the best trade that would have been be it a back or a lay as decided once the market is over?Euler wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:33 amThat's the best trade in that market regardless of direction. So you will have to unpick various elements from that list.Nero Tulip wrote: ↑Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:22 amFor a backing the favourite strategy there's a few lays crept into the mix... I see you've been on the forum for a while, you shouldn't be getting your backs and lays mixed up by now.
Or are you saying that it was what you thought was going to be the best trade in the market before opening the position and then posting the result on the forum what you decided regardless of if it actually turned out to be the best trade in the market.
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
Why do you prefer this analysis technique over a variable stake?
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2094
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
My question may be incorrect.
The answer could be "It's better to look at it with various staking techniques"
1. Variable stake
2. Fixed stake
3. Volume stake (i.e. most accurate in theory)
Problem is, I wouldn't call that a model, I'd call that 3 backtests