Today's Horse Racing

The sport of kings.
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Derek27
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Still haven't managed to sort out my Firefox issue with file types.
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Naffman
Posts: 5626
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

R1 Tampa didn't go inplay, interesting to see how they settle
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Dallas
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Well worth the wait on Zahirah eventual steam
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Euler
Posts: 24701
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

Returns to £100 stakes when backing the favourite yesterday and trading out at post time were £225.88

Ling - 12:10 - Lay to open @ 3.65 to 3.95 for 6 ticks & £7.59
Hex - 12:20 - Back to open @ 1.61 to 1.49 for 12 ticks & £8.05
Ling - 12:40 - Lay to open @ 5.00 to 5.20 for 2 ticks & £3.85
Hex - 12:50 - Lay to open @ 4.10 to 5.20 for 11 ticks & £21.15
Leic - 13:00 - Back to open @ 3.10 to 2.06 for 49 ticks & £50.49
Ling - 13:10 - Back to open @ 3.15 to 2.48 for 29 ticks & £27.02
Hex - 13:20 - Back to open @ 1.65 to 1.49 for 16 ticks & £10.74
Leic - 13:30 - Lay to open @ 2.10 to 2.16 for 3 ticks & £2.78
Ling - 13:40 - Back to open @ 2.14 to 1.80 for 27 ticks & £18.89
Hex - 13:50 - Back to open @ 2.82 to 2.36 for 23 ticks & £19.49
Leic - 14:00 - Lay to open @ 4.50 to 6.20 for 16 ticks & £27.42
Ling - 14:10 - Back to open @ 5.70 to 5.20 for 5 ticks & £9.62
Hex - 14:20 - Lay to open @ 6.20 to 6.40 for 1 ticks & £3.13
Leic - 14:30 - Back to open @ 2.76 to 2.08 for 34 ticks & £32.69
Ling - 14:40 - Lay to open @ 3.65 to 3.95 for 6 ticks & £7.59
Hex - 14:50 - Lay to open @ 3.80 to 4.30 for 7 ticks & £11.63
Leic - 15:00 - Lay to open @ 3.75 to 5.70 for 22 ticks & £34.21
Ling - 15:10 - Back to open @ 2.80 to 2.62 for 9 ticks & £6.87
Hex - 15:20 - Back to open @ 3.30 to 2.68 for 22 ticks & £23.13
Leic - 15:30 - Back to open @ 1.94 to 1.80 for 14 ticks & £7.78
Kemp - 15:40 - Back to open @ 3.45 to 2.76 for 21 ticks & £25.00
Kemp - 16:15 - Back to open @ 5.00 to 3.35 for 23 ticks & £49.25
Kemp - 16:45 - Back to open @ 2.88 to 2.16 for 36 ticks & £33.33
Kemp - 17:15 - Back to open @ 1.87 to 1.79 for 8 ticks & £4.47
Kemp - 17:45 - Back to open @ 3.40 to 3.35 for 1 ticks & £1.49
Kemp - 18:15 - Back to open @ 3.90 to 3.70 for 4 ticks & £5.41
Kemp - 18:45 - Lay to open @ 3.70 to 4.40 for 10 ticks & £15.91
Kemp - 19:15 - Back to open @ 3.95 to 3.10 for 17 ticks & £27.42
Nero Tulip
Posts: 686
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:29 pm

For a backing the favourite strategy there's a few lays crept into the mix... I see you've been on the forum for a while, you shouldn't be getting your backs and lays mixed up by now. :lol:
Euler wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:15 am
Returns to £100 stakes when backing the favourite yesterday and trading out at post time were £225.88

Ling - 12:10 - Lay to open @ 3.65 to 3.95 for 6 ticks & £7.59
Hex - 12:20 - Back to open @ 1.61 to 1.49 for 12 ticks & £8.05
Ling - 12:40 - Lay to open @ 5.00 to 5.20 for 2 ticks & £3.85
Hex - 12:50 - Lay to open @ 4.10 to 5.20 for 11 ticks & £21.15
Leic - 13:00 - Back to open @ 3.10 to 2.06 for 49 ticks & £50.49
Ling - 13:10 - Back to open @ 3.15 to 2.48 for 29 ticks & £27.02
Hex - 13:20 - Back to open @ 1.65 to 1.49 for 16 ticks & £10.74
Leic - 13:30 - Lay to open @ 2.10 to 2.16 for 3 ticks & £2.78
Ling - 13:40 - Back to open @ 2.14 to 1.80 for 27 ticks & £18.89
Hex - 13:50 - Back to open @ 2.82 to 2.36 for 23 ticks & £19.49
Leic - 14:00 - Lay to open @ 4.50 to 6.20 for 16 ticks & £27.42
Ling - 14:10 - Back to open @ 5.70 to 5.20 for 5 ticks & £9.62
Hex - 14:20 - Lay to open @ 6.20 to 6.40 for 1 ticks & £3.13
Leic - 14:30 - Back to open @ 2.76 to 2.08 for 34 ticks & £32.69
Ling - 14:40 - Lay to open @ 3.65 to 3.95 for 6 ticks & £7.59
Hex - 14:50 - Lay to open @ 3.80 to 4.30 for 7 ticks & £11.63
Leic - 15:00 - Lay to open @ 3.75 to 5.70 for 22 ticks & £34.21
Ling - 15:10 - Back to open @ 2.80 to 2.62 for 9 ticks & £6.87
Hex - 15:20 - Back to open @ 3.30 to 2.68 for 22 ticks & £23.13
Leic - 15:30 - Back to open @ 1.94 to 1.80 for 14 ticks & £7.78
Kemp - 15:40 - Back to open @ 3.45 to 2.76 for 21 ticks & £25.00
Kemp - 16:15 - Back to open @ 5.00 to 3.35 for 23 ticks & £49.25
Kemp - 16:45 - Back to open @ 2.88 to 2.16 for 36 ticks & £33.33
Kemp - 17:15 - Back to open @ 1.87 to 1.79 for 8 ticks & £4.47
Kemp - 17:45 - Back to open @ 3.40 to 3.35 for 1 ticks & £1.49
Kemp - 18:15 - Back to open @ 3.90 to 3.70 for 4 ticks & £5.41
Kemp - 18:45 - Lay to open @ 3.70 to 4.40 for 10 ticks & £15.91
Kemp - 19:15 - Back to open @ 3.95 to 3.10 for 17 ticks & £27.42
Nero Tulip
Posts: 686
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:29 pm

@Euler Slightly more seriously, yesterday was volatile, wasn't it ? Would really appreciate any time you could spend (and anyone else very experienced in horse racing markets) describing them in a little more detail, was there anything in particular that you felt was different? There were a lot of sharp moves all over these markets, it did not suit one of my strategies which was not able to keep up with the speed of the movement...Also seemed to be some sizable open interest on some runners.
sirtyro
Posts: 5
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:34 am

What influences your decision to lay or back?
Euler wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:15 am
Returns to £100 stakes when backing the favourite yesterday and trading out at post time were £225.88

Ling - 12:10 - Lay to open @ 3.65 to 3.95 for 6 ticks & £7.59
Hex - 12:20 - Back to open @ 1.61 to 1.49 for 12 ticks & £8.05
Ling - 12:40 - Lay to open @ 5.00 to 5.20 for 2 ticks & £3.85
Hex - 12:50 - Lay to open @ 4.10 to 5.20 for 11 ticks & £21.15
Leic - 13:00 - Back to open @ 3.10 to 2.06 for 49 ticks & £50.49
Ling - 13:10 - Back to open @ 3.15 to 2.48 for 29 ticks & £27.02
Hex - 13:20 - Back to open @ 1.65 to 1.49 for 16 ticks & £10.74
Leic - 13:30 - Lay to open @ 2.10 to 2.16 for 3 ticks & £2.78
Ling - 13:40 - Back to open @ 2.14 to 1.80 for 27 ticks & £18.89
Hex - 13:50 - Back to open @ 2.82 to 2.36 for 23 ticks & £19.49
Leic - 14:00 - Lay to open @ 4.50 to 6.20 for 16 ticks & £27.42
Ling - 14:10 - Back to open @ 5.70 to 5.20 for 5 ticks & £9.62
Hex - 14:20 - Lay to open @ 6.20 to 6.40 for 1 ticks & £3.13
Leic - 14:30 - Back to open @ 2.76 to 2.08 for 34 ticks & £32.69
Ling - 14:40 - Lay to open @ 3.65 to 3.95 for 6 ticks & £7.59
Hex - 14:50 - Lay to open @ 3.80 to 4.30 for 7 ticks & £11.63
Leic - 15:00 - Lay to open @ 3.75 to 5.70 for 22 ticks & £34.21
Ling - 15:10 - Back to open @ 2.80 to 2.62 for 9 ticks & £6.87
Hex - 15:20 - Back to open @ 3.30 to 2.68 for 22 ticks & £23.13
Leic - 15:30 - Back to open @ 1.94 to 1.80 for 14 ticks & £7.78
Kemp - 15:40 - Back to open @ 3.45 to 2.76 for 21 ticks & £25.00
Kemp - 16:15 - Back to open @ 5.00 to 3.35 for 23 ticks & £49.25
Kemp - 16:45 - Back to open @ 2.88 to 2.16 for 36 ticks & £33.33
Kemp - 17:15 - Back to open @ 1.87 to 1.79 for 8 ticks & £4.47
Kemp - 17:45 - Back to open @ 3.40 to 3.35 for 1 ticks & £1.49
Kemp - 18:15 - Back to open @ 3.90 to 3.70 for 4 ticks & £5.41
Kemp - 18:45 - Lay to open @ 3.70 to 4.40 for 10 ticks & £15.91
Kemp - 19:15 - Back to open @ 3.95 to 3.10 for 17 ticks & £27.42
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Euler
Posts: 24701
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

Nero Tulip wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:27 am
@Euler Slightly more seriously, yesterday was volatile, wasn't it ? Would really appreciate any time you could spend (and anyone else very experienced in horse racing markets) describing them in a little more detail, was there anything in particular that you felt was different? There were a lot of sharp moves all over these markets, it did not suit one of my strategies which was not able to keep up with the speed of the movement...Also seemed to be some sizable open interest on some runners.
There was a large backer in the market yesterday that amplified the results. You wouldn't usually expect such a large bias generally. I checked and it was the 7th highest return on that style in the last two years.
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Euler
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

Nero Tulip wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:22 am
For a backing the favourite strategy there's a few lays crept into the mix... I see you've been on the forum for a while, you shouldn't be getting your backs and lays mixed up by now. :lol:
That's the best trade in that market regardless of direction. So you will have to unpick various elements from that list.
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PDC
Posts: 2272
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2016 5:52 pm

Euler wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:33 am
Nero Tulip wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:22 am
For a backing the favourite strategy there's a few lays crept into the mix... I see you've been on the forum for a while, you shouldn't be getting your backs and lays mixed up by now. :lol:
That's the best trade in that market regardless of direction. So you will have to unpick various elements from that list.
I am confused, are you saying it was the best trade in that market after the market and then posting on the forum the best trade that would have been be it a back or a lay as decided once the market is over?

Or are you saying that it was what you thought was going to be the best trade in the market before opening the position and then posting the result on the forum what you decided regardless of if it actually turned out to be the best trade in the market.
Jukebox
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Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

If you check the total you'll see that Euler's total counts the Lays as negatives on a back strategy - and comes up with his £225
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Dallas
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Location: Working From Home

Actually enjoying today
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ruthlessimon
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Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Euler wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:15 am
Returns to £100 stakes when backing the favourite yesterday and trading out at post time were £225.88

Hex - 12:20 - Back to open @ 1.61 to 1.49 for 12 ticks & £8.05
Ling - 14:10 - Back to open @ 5.70 to 5.20 for 5 ticks & £9.62
Why do you prefer this analysis technique over a variable stake?
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brimson25
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This is a great question, since I think you advocate tick-based staking?

(This still makes me feels very uncomfortable)
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ruthlessimon
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brimson25 wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:59 pm
This is a great question, since I think you advocate tick-based staking?

(This still makes me feels very uncomfortable)
My question may be incorrect.

The answer could be "It's better to look at it with various staking techniques"

1. Variable stake
2. Fixed stake
3. Volume stake (i.e. most accurate in theory)

Problem is, I wouldn't call that a model, I'd call that 3 backtests :D
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