Back the Draw if a Team has a 1 Goal Lead at Half Time Guardian Automation Bot

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Dallas
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This is a basic Guardian automation rule which for use on Football Markets.

The bot will place a Back bet for £10 on the Draw if there is just one goal separating the teams at half-time, if that team equalizes during the 2nd half the bot will green up for a profit.

It works by setting a signal with a +1 value if there is a large jump in the draw odds as this will mean a team has scored, if the same team score again there will be another jump in the draw odds so the signal value will go to +2, if the opposing team then score the next goal this will cause the draw odds to fall (when there is a large fall in odds the signal value will decrease by -1). So, following from the above scenario where the signal value is currently +2 if the opposing team score next the value will become +1 and If the signal value is at +1 when it gets to half-time this means there should only be one goal separating the two teams so the back bet is placed on the draw.

The rule will work best on matches were the teams are fairly equal (no strong favourite) as the draw odds will move very similar no matter which team scores which makes tracking the score much easier. Also its more likely their will be an equalizer in this type of match than one where a strong pre-match fav has the lead.

To use the file just click on the Back Draw if a Team is Leading by 1 Goal.Baf attachment link below and this will download it to your computer, then with guardian open on the "Automation" tab click "Import a Rules File" as shown in the image, once imported it will now appear in the drop down box just above, you can now apply it to any markets you have added into guardian.

Once you have it imported into your Guardian the stake size along with any other aspects of this file can be edited very easily by clicking on "Edit Rules File".

If you require any data on the timing of goals to help with this or any other goal related strategy see the following thread which has every goal time for every match in every major league around the world going back more than 10 years in Excel and Json format which users can freely download
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=14776

With any automation bot always run in practice mode first to ensure everything is working fine, and repeat this each time you make any changes.
To see a video tutorial on how to download and import an automation file into your Bet Angel please see this link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7Im4pj683g
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Dallas
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TIP

Rather than search through and remove matches with a strong fav at K.O you can add a 'Set/Modify Signal' rule type to set a signal with a unique name and use 2 x fixed odds conditions to specify the fav and 3rd fav are within two prices, for example on one fixed odds condition you might want to say;

Fav back price is greater than 2.0
and on the other fixed odds condition
3rd fav lay price is less than 3.5

This would mean the odds of the home,away and draw all need to be between 2.0 & 3.5 for the signal to be set - which would indicate a fairly equal match.

Then on your Half-Time back bet rule add a condition to check if this signal name has been set signal before allowing the bet to trigger, if not set then it would mean their was a strong pre-match fav therefore no bet is to be placed at Half Time.
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eminbe
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Hi Dallas,

At the start of the bot is the signal is 0?
If there were a draw 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3 ... at half time will the signal be 0?
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Dallas
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eminbe wrote:
Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:30 am
Hi Dallas,

At the start of the bot is the signal is 0?
If there were a draw 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3 ... at half time will the signal be 0?
To start with there is simply no signal then after one is set it will go up or down 1 depending on the movement in odds so you could end up with '0' once a team has equalized.
As it is the rule is set to only trigger only on a +1 value
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jonnyg
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"The rule will work best on matches were the teams are fairly equal (no strong favourite) as the draw odds will move very similar no matter which team scores which makes tracking the score much easier. Also its more likely their will be an equalizer in this type of match than one where a strong pre-match fav has the lead. "

all my knowledge of survival analysis re football = the ability to hold a 1 goal lead tells me that you should be doing the reverse > lay the draw < but I will provide the exact data to show you the results for teams in the Prem that are winning 1-0 at HT with your pre off odds bracket <

another area that suggests that one should be laying the draw in general and not backing the draw is 1-0 HT game state / 0-1 HT game state added to > 1-1 in 46-70 minutes time band because in many leagues you will see lowered expectation of 1-1 FT and as a result lowered expectation of a draw >

anyway I will back fit the games that fit the profile 1-0 HT to the home team in the PL with pre off odds on home team Evens - 5/2 > we should see a low % of games that end a draw and indeed 1-0 HT goal 0-10 < a very low % will end a draw
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jonnyg
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In the table below I have added all the games since 2012-2013 in the Premier League where the home teams were winning 1-0 at half time with the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band, the home teams scored the second goal of the game in 49%, no second goal in 16% and the away teams scored the second goal in 35%

Game Pathway

Game pathway is simply the current score and in games in the Premier League that are 1-0 at half time to the home team added to the early home goal metric ( goal in the 0-10 minutes time band ) , expectation that the game will not go to the 1-1 pathway with a goal in the 46-70 minutes time band and if that does happen then high expectation that the game will not end 1-1.

In the table below 13 games (25% ) followed the pathway 1-1 with a goal in the 46-70 minutes time band and 1/13 ended 1-1.



38-9-4 <> the home teams won 74.5% , 1/0.745 = 1.34



53% ended over 2.5 goals





Trading Strategy

In games in the Premier League that are 1-0 at half time to the home team added to the opening goal in the 0-10 minutes time band ;

1. At half time LAY ( Back against 1-1 correct score )

2. If the game is still 1-0 on 69 minutes then close the trade by backing 1-1 with the aim of avoiding any late goals by the away team.


data correct to Dec 1st 2016
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Dallas
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jonnyg wrote:
Mon Jul 24, 2017 6:49 pm
all my knowledge of survival analysis re football = the ability to hold a 1 goal lead tells me that you should be doing the reverse > lay the draw < but I will provide the exact data to show you the results for teams in the Prem that are winning 1-0 at HT with your pre off odds bracket <

another area that suggests that one should be laying the draw in general and not backing the draw is 1-0 HT game state / 0-1 HT game state added to > 1-1 in 46-70 minutes time band because in many leagues you will see lowered expectation of 1-1 FT and as a result lowered expectation of a draw >

anyway I will back fit the games that fit the profile 1-0 HT to the home team in the PL with pre off odds on home team Evens - 5/2 > we should see a low % of games that end a draw and indeed 1-0 HT goal 0-10 < a very low % will end a draw
The automation file is an example showing how to set up the foundations for this type of trade, it can just as easily be made to look for a 2 or 3 goal lead and after any mins have past not just wait for HT. There is also no reason why it must only trade the draw, it can just as easily be changed to back or lay either the home or away side.

Even if it was intended as a full strategy for users to follow exactly as it is then these stats would still be completely irrelevant for many reasons but the main two are

1) It’s looking for any 1 goal lead at Half Time NOT just scores of 1-0 or 0-1
2) It only needs the trailing team to equalize to achieve a profit - the final result does not matter.
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jonnyg
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Last 25 games in the Premier League where the home team winning 1-0 HT added to the factor that they were Evens -5/2 at K0 and 2/25 ended a draw :idea:

only 6/25 > 1-1 pathway ;)



Sat 06/05/17 Swansea City
1 - 0
Everton View events More info
Llorente 29'
1 - 0

Swansea at KO priced at 38/25


Wed 26/04/17 Middlesbrough
1 - 0
Sunderland View events More info
M. de Roon 8'
1 - 0

Boro at KO 117/100 < very low expectation of this game ending a draw given the first half events

Swansea City
2 - 0
Stoke City View events More info
Llorente 10'
1 - 0
T. Carroll 70'
2 - 0

Swansea at KO were 131/100 < < very low expectation of this game ending a draw given the first half events


Manchester United
2 - 0
Chelsea View events More info
M. Rashford 7'
1 - 0
Ander Herrera 49'
2 - 0

Man UTD at KO were 91/50 < very low expectation of this game ending a draw given the first half events


Stoke City
3 - 1
Hull City View events More info
M. Arnautović 6'
1 - 0
1 - 1
51' H. Maguire
P. Crouch 66'
2 - 1
X. Shaqiri 80'
3 - 1

Stoke were Evens at KO < < very low expectation of this game ending a draw given the first half events

Watford
1 - 0
Swansea City View events More info
E. Capoue 42'
1 - 0

Watford at Ko were 17/10


Stoke City
1 - 2
Liverpool View events More info
J. Walters 44'
1 - 0
1 - 1
70' Philippe Coutinho
1 - 2
72' Roberto Firmino

Stoke City at Ko were 123/50

West Ham United
1 - 0
Swansea City View events More info
C. Kouyaté 44'
1 - 0

West Ham at KO were 117/100

Watford
2 - 0
West Bromwich … View events More info
M. Niang 13'
1 - 0
T. Deeney 49'
2 - 0

Watford at KO were 147/100



Leicester City
2 - 0
Stoke City View events More info
W. Ndidi 25'
1 - 0
J. Vardy 47'
2 - 0

Leicester were Evens at KO

AFC Bournemouth
2 - 0
Swansea City View events More info
A. Mawson (OG) 31'
1 - 0
B. Afobe 72'
2 - 0

Bournemouth at K0 were 117/100

Watford
1 - 1
West Ham United View events More info
T. Deeney (PG) 3'
1 - 0
1 - 1
73' A. Ayew

Watford at Ko were 177/100


Crystal Palace
1 - 0
Middlesbrough View events More info
P. van Aanholt 34'
1 - 0

Palace at KO were 11/10

West Bromwich …
1 - 0
Stoke City View events More info
J. Morrison 6'
1 - 0

WBA at KO 7/5 < given the events of first half > low expectation of the game ending a draw

Chelsea
3 - 1
Arsenal View events More info
Marcos Alonso 13'
1 - 0
E. Hazard 53'
2 - 0
Fàbregas 85'
3 - 0
3 - 1
90' O. Giroud

Chelsea at KO were offered at 11/10


Swansea City
2 - 1
Southampton View events More info
A. Mawson 38'
1 - 0
1 - 1
57' S. Long
G. Sigurðsson 70'
2 - 1

Swansea at KO 221/100 < given the away fightback metric added to 1-0 HT game state in PL = lowered expectation of a draw for the simple reason that 1-1 FT will not be common in that profile in PL



Tottenham Hotspur
2 - 0
Chelsea View events More info
D. Alli 45'
1 - 0
D. Alli 54'
2 - 0

Spurs at ko 169/100

Stoke City
2 - 0
Watford View events More info
R. Shawcross 45'
1 - 0
P. Crouch 49'
2 - 0

Stoke at KO were Evens


Liverpool
1 - 0
Manchester City View events More info
G. Wijnaldum 8'
1 - 0

Liverpool at KO were 29/20 > low expectation of the game ending a draw as a result of the first half events


Burnley
4 - 1
Sunderland View events More info
A. Gray 31'
1 - 0
A. Gray 51'
2 - 0
A. Gray 53'
3 - 0
A. Barnes (PG) 67'
4 - 0
4 - 1
71' J. Defoe

Burnley at KO were Evens

Leicester City
1 - 0
West Ham United View events More info
I. Slimani 20'
1 - 0

Leicester at KO were 11/10

AFC Bournemouth
1 - 0
Leicester City View events More info
M. Pugh 34'
1 - 0

Bournemouth at KO were 63/50

Manchester United
1 - 0
Tottenham Hotspur View events More info
H. Mkhitaryan 29'
1 - 0

UTD at KO were 29/25

Hull City
3 - 3
Crystal Palace View events More info
R. Snodgrass (PG) 27'
1 - 0
1 - 1
52' C. Benteke (PG) < note how the away fightback metric and low expectation of 1-1 FT in the PL
1 - 2
70' W. Zaha
A. Diomande 72'
2 - 2
J. Livermore 78'
3 - 2
3 - 3
89' F. Campbell

at KO Hull were 229/100

Manchester City
1 - 3
Chelsea View events More info
G. Cahill (OG) 45'
1 - 0
1 - 1
60' Diego Costa > note how the away fightback in the PL and low expectation of 1-1 FT
1 - 2
70' Willian
1 - 3
90' E. Hazard

at KO City were offered at 23/20


since 08-09 in the Premier League home team winning 1-0 HT and 17% ended a draw

2-1 HT and 15% ended a draw


when should we back the draw in a game in the PL when the home team is winning 1-0 HT or 2-1 HT ?
Last edited by jonnyg on Tue Jul 25, 2017 7:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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jonnyg
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In games in the Premier League where the home team open the scoring in the first half and 1-0 half time < your instinct is likely to take over if you believe that the 2 teams are of similar perceived strength in terms of expectation of a draw <

what you should understand is that the game state ( current score ) added to the time of the opening goal can weaken the perceived strength of a team >

in basic terms when you bet / trade in play > do not focus on the league table :idea:
ArticalBadboy
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Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:43 pm

Last year in the Premier league, OPTA stats show teams that opened the scoring only went on to win 52.2% of the time.
I am trialing a system that lays the first goal scorer, can someone remind me how I work out the average lay odds I would need to make this profitable please?

I am also looking at the tangent of greening up in play, thus catching anytime a team equalize.
This scalps some nice events (Fav scores first, opp equalizes, fav scores and wins), but obviously erodes getting the full lay odds if indeed the first scorer doesn't win.

Any comments on these ideas would be gratefully received, thanks
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Dallas
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ArticalBadboy wrote:
Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:36 am
Last year in the Premier league, OPTA stats show teams that opened the scoring only went on to win 52.2% of the time.
I am trialing a system that lays the first goal scorer, can someone remind me how I work out the average lay odds I would need to make this profitable please?

I am also looking at the tangent of greening up in play, thus catching anytime a team equalize.
This scalps some nice events (Fav scores first, opp equalizes, fav scores and wins), but obviously erodes getting the full lay odds if indeed the first scorer doesn't win.

Any comments on these ideas would be gratefully received, thanks
I assume you mean working out the odds from the implied %? If so that would just be 100/Implied %
100/52.2 = 1.91
ArticalBadboy
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Thank you Dallas, much appreciated.
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jonnyg
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.
Last edited by jonnyg on Tue Jul 25, 2017 9:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
ArticalBadboy
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Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:43 pm

Sorry, yes you are correct...the 52.2% was for the entire Premier League era. (source: SkySports article By Adam Smith 18/07/17)

You have clearly spent a lot of time and effort researching this and I bow to your superior knowledge.

Have you managed to turn that knowledge into:
a) A profitable system?
b) A BetAngel automation?

Cheers
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jonnyg
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ArticalBadboy wrote:
Tue Jul 25, 2017 8:04 pm
Sorry, yes you are correct...the 52.2% was for the entire Premier League era. (source: SkySports article By Adam Smith 18/07/17)

You have clearly spent a lot of time and effort researching this and I bow to your superior knowledge.

Have you managed to turn that knowledge into:
a) A profitable system?
b) A BetAngel automation?

Cheers

dallas deleted my response > you were looking at the wrong data > the data re 52% does not refer to the opening goal < last 7 seasons re opening goal in PL and 69% of teams that opened the scoring won >
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