DOBing @ 50% & Back 2 Lay @ 20% Guardian Automation Bot

Post Reply
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 22673
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

Frogmella wrote:
Sat Jun 24, 2017 1:20 pm
I can't bear watching newbies wasting their time with this.

Automated Dobbing at 50% or Back to Lay at 30%, 20%, 10% or even just 10 ticks. Will NEVER make you ANY profit. (As you bring the target exit price closer to your entry point the winnings get smaller and smaller but the losses, while getting less frequent, are still the same size.)

And whatever you do, DON'T try and deploy an in-play stop to save your initial stake, if you do, you will LOSE even more, I can guarantee that.

Patternform ratings are useless, you might as well get a monkey to pick your dobbers.

Lay to Back is even worse.(Greater risk for smaller returns)

Don't waste your time with any of it.
I'd completely disagree with 'Will NEVER make you ANY profit'. This type of automation file along with a number of others that require the user to pick the selections its ran on can all be profitable - the only way not to be able to profit from these type of files is not being able to identify the right selections to apply it to, so i cant see how anyone could basically say;
'Its impossible for anyone to consistently be able to identify horses that will run well'

I do agree with you that 'Patternform' is useless and i personally don't bother with it but I do use the two sites listed at the beginning of the thread to shortlist potential selections. I've also looked at years of data and know which courses, distances even race types that tend to suit DOBing/B2L's etc (and the ones that dont). So that is always taken into consideration when I'm choosing my selections.

I don't do a massive amount of DOBing (on and off I may be do 12-15 selections a week sometimes less) but the ones i do are all carefully selected and ill generally get a strike rate of around 75%-80% in a given week.

Go to any site including the two i have listed at the start of the thread and blindly just choose to DOB the top 5 or 10 selections you can see and your probably going to lose money. However if you put the time and effort in to choosing the right runners then it can and will make a profit.
mhorro
Posts: 112
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Cheshire

I use DOBBING on UK horse racing but I have an advantage I am a horse form expert and will only pick selections that I know will run well.
You cannot just blindly pin hook a horse selection and hope for it's odds to go in the direction you want. You need to have your own opinion of a selection by doing the hard work.
I pay no attention to horse racing web sites for guidance as this is their opinion and if they were that good they would be millionaires. Just watch the racing pundits on TV the same applies to them which is a subject that really gets up my nose!!!!!!!! I think alot of newbies hope for a generic automation rule to fit all markets but it does not work like that.
Mark.
mhorro
Posts: 112
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Cheshire

I did forget to mention I only trade on UK Horse racing handicap races as I like to unravel the form and look for mistakes made by the handicapper. It's just a nerdy thing I like to do. I usually get some great prices.
Dadders
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:36 pm

Maybe I'm missing something but isn't a DOB a Back at say £10 and then Laying £20 at half your back odds?
In the Parameters of the Back Bet (DOB -Lay @50%) with the Action 'Offset bet with greening' won't the offset be another £10 stake same as your Back bet stake?

Thanks in advance

Matt
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 22673
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

Dadders wrote:
Sun Jun 25, 2017 6:18 pm
Maybe I'm missing something but isn't a DOB a Back at say £10 and then Laying £20 at half your back odds?
In the Parameters of the Back Bet (DOB -Lay @50%) with the Action 'Offset bet with greening' won't the offset be another £10 stake same as your Back bet stake?

Thanks in advance

Matt
Yes thats exactly what a DOB is and what this rule does.

If the option 'offset bet' was used then the lay stake placed would be the same as the back stake but with the 'offset bet with greening' used laying at odds 50% below the back bet would mean the lay stake would be double the back stake.
Dadders
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:36 pm

Ok, got it

Thank you

Matt
User avatar
ANGELS15
Posts: 844
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:57 am

I have to agree with you Dallas in that for this to be an effective strategy you have to use any analytical skills or resources youv'e discovered to be useful. I'm new to Bet Angel having only joined 3 months ago. I've used Betfair since 2000 but just for straight betting occasional laying. The dobbing automation on Youtube fascinated me I recreated it when I signed up and in the last 3 months must have 'DOBBED' about 500 horses.
The first 200 or so fantastic strike rate of about 60/70% however by about the 350th horse starting to level out so I've had to refine my strategy. But I do believe it is possible for it to be profitable.

I'm sorry to ask this here but how do you start a new thread/question? I can reply to forum threads but can't see how to start one?

Apologies again but I wanted to ask a question on how to create an automation for small open fields i.e
scenario 6 runners fav and 2nd fav around 3/1 so the idea would be to back the other 4 against the front two.

Any advice on how to do this would be greatly appreciated.
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 22673
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

ANGELS15 wrote:
Sun Jun 25, 2017 6:47 pm
I'm sorry to ask this here but how do you start a new thread/question? I can reply to forum threads but can't see how to start one?

Apologies again but I wanted to ask a question on how to create an automation for small open fields i.e
scenario 6 runners fav and 2nd fav around 3/1 so the idea would be to back the other 4 against the front two.

Any advice on how to do this would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks for posting your thoughts on DOBing

To start a new topic click 'board index' located in top left corner, then navigate to the section of the forum you want ie, 'Bet Angel - Automation' and when you click in on the top left you will see 'New Topic'
Dadders
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:36 pm

So, if I set an 'offset with greening' at 33% this will give me a Double DOB. Stake of £10 return of £20?

I read the tick offset link posted but I would like automation to work in % of.

I take it if I set a Lay exit at 50% and use an 'offset bet' this removes all the liability.

Would I also be able to set an extra Lay exit at 25% for double my original stake?

Thanks in advance.

Matt
User avatar
ANGELS15
Posts: 844
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:57 am

Thanks Dallas will give that a go
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 22673
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

Dadders wrote:
Sun Jun 25, 2017 7:53 pm
So, if I set an 'offset with greening' at 33% this will give me a Double DOB. Stake of £10 return of £20?

I read the tick offset link posted but I would like automation to work in % of.

I take it if I set a Lay exit at 50% and use an 'offset bet' this removes all the liability.

Would I also be able to set an extra Lay exit at 25% for double my original stake?

Thanks in advance.

Matt
No, at 33% the lay stake wont be double, it only works out to be double if greening up at 50% below.

If you use the 'offset bet' option that will take all liability away if matched, if you then want to try and green up at lower odds (increasing your profit while never being in danger of losing anything) you would need to add a new lay bet with some conditions to prevent it from triggering until after your offset lay is matched ie;
number of unmatched bets is equal 0
green all profit condition is greater than £X
Dadders
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:36 pm

Thanks, as ever, for the advice.

So I have another question in regard to taking out liability.

So I just crunched some numbers on a strat I was trying out.
I know it is a small sample but it was on 106 races over the last week.
DOBs yielded a strike rate of 56% (a strike rate of 51.28% is needed to break even).
Double Dobs (Laying Back odds at 1/3 for double the stake) yielded a 31% strike rate (a strike rate of 34.48% is needed to break even).

My question is if I remove a % of the liability I presume I am reducing the strike rate I need to make a +ev but I am reducing any potential profit. So am I just chasing my tail thinking about removing liability?

Thanks in advance.

Matt
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 22673
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

The only way to find these things out for sure is through testing over a large enough sample size
ibrady101
Posts: 3
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2017 9:00 am

Hi Dallas,

Would appreciate your assistance on the settings for your DOBing bot. Can the rule be modified to specify the lay stake relative to the back stake? For example, lay stake = 1.4 times the back stake? Many Thanks.
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 22673
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

ibrady101 wrote:
Thu Jul 20, 2017 9:33 am
Hi Dallas,

Would appreciate your assistance on the settings for your DOBing bot. Can the rule be modified to specify the lay stake relative to the back stake? For example, lay stake = 1.4 times the back stake? Many Thanks.
You would have to create a separate lay bet rule and have it place at 50% (or any % of the BSP) then you could set any stake you wanted
Post Reply

Return to “Bet Angel Automation - Horse racing - In-running”