How to know if a strategy works with data?

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ruthlessimon
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Jukebox wrote:
Mon Dec 31, 2018 9:42 pm
World Cup was a distraction for many
Yea, an interesting shout there Juke, ty.

Only problem it'll literally take 4 years to confirm!
Jukebox
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:21 pm
Only problem it'll literally take 4 years to confirm!
Even then it might be tricky - this WC had perfect timing and UK interest to have 'possibly' had the impact you've detected.
It did seem to stomp all over the UK racing day and many traders and punters may have put their attention elswhere for the duration.

Monthly turnover comparison for 2018 and 2017 might show something.
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Roll up, roll up - market has just opened for my latest "strategy"

1.53: Won't work going forward (curve fit)
3.10: Won't work going forward (formula error)
8.2: It's worth a £2 stake
50: Marbella 2019
100: Peter hasn't found it
500: Kidnapped
1000: Jeff agrees it's an edge ;)
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CallumPerry
Posts: 575
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Location: Wolverhampton

I'll throw some at 8.2 ;) With over 450 markets, that looks very promising! :mrgreen:
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ShaunWhite
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CallumPerry wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 9:22 am
I'll throw some at 8.2 ;) With over 450 markets, that looks very promising! :mrgreen:
That was my first impression, but it needs to be scaleable. £10 a month barely covers the leccy. And it's always the case that there's some slippage when you go from theory to the real world, is it manually executed? But definately worth an investment I'd say if you can stand the idea of looking at the ladders for 6hrs a day to spot 2 chances.
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ruthlessimon
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Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:26 pm
worth an investment I'd say if you can stand the idea of looking at the ladders for 6hrs a day to spot 2 chances.
That is one of the serious issues, problem is it goes back all the way to that infamous Sept thread.

I mentally cannot cope with 1 or 2 valid markets (i.e. might not even be traded) per day
tradergreen
Posts: 21
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2015 3:07 pm

Dallas wrote:
Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:39 pm
The 'free' excel Betfair data files only contain so much info so it depends what is your trying to 'backtest' as to if it's even possible.

But you're going to need to provide some idea of what you're looking so someone can point you in the right direction
Hello Dallas again,

For me would be interest to know the winners, starting odds, distance, surface, age... in bold is the most important, because the other general characteristics of the race would be sure.

Do you know if there is a website where are winners with starting odds during a period of time like a year or season...?

Thank you. :)
tradergreen
Posts: 21
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2015 3:07 pm

Hello again,

Excuse me, but one newbie's question more, why people lay at low odds between 1.01 to 1.15 when the market is recent? The only thing that they are looking is a "miracle"? A lot of little loses looking a big win?

Sorry, I am newbie in a Horses Racing markets.

Thank you again. :)
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

tradergreen wrote:
Sat May 11, 2019 9:59 am
Hello again,

Excuse me, but one newbie's question more, why people lay at low odds between 1.01 to 1.15 when the market is recent? The only thing that they are looking is a "miracle"? A lot of little loses looking a big win?

Sorry, I am newbie in a Horses Racing markets.

Thank you again. :)
If you can be at the front laying at 1.01 is profitable long term. Many people choose to lay at low odds due to hedging / believing the course has a bias making it profitable although someone must be losing.
tradergreen
Posts: 21
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2015 3:07 pm

LinusP wrote:
Sat May 11, 2019 10:17 am
tradergreen wrote:
Sat May 11, 2019 9:59 am
Hello again,

Excuse me, but one newbie's question more, why people lay at low odds between 1.01 to 1.15 when the market is recent? The only thing that they are looking is a "miracle"? A lot of little loses looking a big win?

Sorry, I am newbie in a Horses Racing markets.

Thank you again. :)
If you can be at the front laying at 1.01 is profitable long term. Many people choose to lay at low odds due to hedging / believing the course has a bias making it profitable although someone must be losing.
Thanks LinusP.

Excuse, but one question more, have they automotion with a back bet a few ticks around 1.03 or 1.04? Or simply more than once each 100 times a horse who is matched a 1.01 loss the race?

Because the last situations it is difficult to believe.

Thank you again LinusP
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

The latter and you would be surprised, most guys on course and those sat at home have 1.01 plugged in when backing so it regularly gets turner over (£700 odd was matched at 1000 yesterday on a winner). Yes it’s mad and I have no idea how they make money (many don’t).
tradergreen
Posts: 21
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2015 3:07 pm

LinusP wrote:
Sun May 12, 2019 1:02 pm
The latter and you would be surprised, most guys on course and those sat at home have 1.01 plugged in when backing so it regularly gets turner over (£700 odd was matched at 1000 yesterday on a winner). Yes it’s mad and I have no idea how they make money (many don’t).
Ok, thank you for your help LinusP.

I appreciate so much this.
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