Today's Football

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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Adamhoward
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Joined: Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:27 am
Location: USA

northbound wrote:
Mon Oct 16, 2017 6:43 pm
A few months ago I had a dream: Chelsea were losing 0-3 at home, it wasn’t clear who the opponents were. A few days later I put £2 on Chelsea v Burnley 0-3 and that set me up for a really profitable Correct Score trading session (the game ended 2-3).

A few nights ago I had a dream in which West Brom just scored the 2-1 goal, couldnt recognize the opponents. So tonight, I’ll probably stick £2 on them to win 2-1 in the Correct Score market and also perhaps bet on them on the Match Odds market, hoping to trade out during the game for a profit.
It's your another chance to make profit.

Football League Cup Round of 16
Tomorrow, 12:15 AM
Stamford Bridge, London

Chelsea vs Everton
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northbound
Posts: 737
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Adamhoward wrote:
Wed Oct 25, 2017 5:00 am
northbound wrote:
Mon Oct 16, 2017 6:43 pm
A few nights ago I had a dream...
It's your another chance to make profit.

Football League Cup Round of 16
Tomorrow, 12:15 AM
Stamford Bridge, London

Chelsea vs Everton
Last night I didn't see anything of note in my dreams. 8-)
Trading96
Posts: 470
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:47 pm

VAR Playing havoc in Atalanta v Verona match

2 disallowed goals
welshboy06
Posts: 165
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 2:06 pm

Trading96 wrote:
Wed Oct 25, 2017 6:19 pm
VAR Playing havoc in Atalanta v Verona match

2 disallowed goals
How would it be possible for an average trader like me to take advantage of this?
My initial thought would be to back the team that "scored" then lay when they goal gets disallowed. But since the market gets suspended, I'm not sure anyone (other than people attending the game) would be able to take advantage?
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LeTiss
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I think Spurs are a bit short tonight.

No Harry Kane and he's a huge player for them, plus a win for West Ham will relieve the pressure on Bilic, so they will be up for it
Trading96
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Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:47 pm

welshboy06 wrote:
Wed Oct 25, 2017 6:53 pm
Trading96 wrote:
Wed Oct 25, 2017 6:19 pm
VAR Playing havoc in Atalanta v Verona match

2 disallowed goals
How would it be possible for an average trader like me to take advantage of this?
My initial thought would be to back the team that "scored" then lay when they goal gets disallowed. But since the market gets suspended, I'm not sure anyone (other than people attending the game) would be able to take advantage?
On the first disallowed goal the market was trading at 1.15 or so for many minutes . The downside was very low as you can see by the graph because when Atalanta scored for real after half time and the goal was confirmed the price went to about the same level even though it was later in the game so the chance is even higher of a win. Obviously to take advantage, you need to estimate how likely it is that the goal is disallowed, then calculate your yield if it is disallowed (price will return to approx same level as before goal) , then compare it to your downside and the likelihood of that occurring. Once you've done that then the maths is straight forward to decide whether to back or lay or leave alone. Everything in the calculations can be worked out to a high level of accuracy with one exception the likelihood of the goal being disallowed. The subjectiveness of that creates the opportunities.

Your post is the wrong way but it is probably just typing mistake. You should lay first if you think the goal is certain to be disallowed.
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LeTiss
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Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

I was right to lay Spurs vs West Ham. I notice Kane is definitely out vs Man Utd too, so they could be good value at 2.10-2.20 with the match being played at Old Trafford. Spurs are half the team without Kane
cyxstudio
Posts: 297
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2014 11:18 pm

confession time, i backed arsenal at 1.2
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Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Plenty of time left
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Kafkaesque
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Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

The EFL Trophy really does throw out some curve balls. Given how important team/squad selection is with a number of the teams being U21's and the most of the rest taking it as something close to friendlies, it's likely best to steer clear, unless you've got inside knowledge. Doesn't stop it being interesting though. Point in case: Stevenage vs. Brighton U21. The away team has steamed in since yesterday-ish from about 2.60 and are now pushing 1.60 with money still pouring in. I can't seem to find any good sources for what is causing a push this big. Any good sources for this level of football? I can't recall seeing this big a shift in football before, and can't help feel it'll swing back to some extent.....if you can catch it at the right time....
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Rstrach
Posts: 103
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2017 12:33 pm

Kafkaesque wrote:
Tue Nov 07, 2017 3:33 pm
The EFL Trophy really does throw out some curve balls. Given how important team/squad selection is with a number of the teams being U21's and the most of the rest taking it as something close to friendlies, it's likely best to steer clear, unless you've got inside knowledge. Doesn't stop it being interesting though. Point in case: Stevenage vs. Brighton U21. The away team has steamed in since yesterday-ish from about 2.60 and are now pushing 1.60 with money still pouring in. I can't seem to find any good sources for what is causing a push this big. Any good sources for this level of football? I can't recall seeing this big a shift in football before, and can't help feel it'll swing back to some extent.....if you can catch it at the right time....
I find this a lot with my native development league in scotland.. hearsay regarding injured senior players given 45 etc. or illness in the camp - common reasons for big(ish) moves especially on markets with piss poor liquidity?

Has much been matched on stevenage game? Seen a little bit on twitter of people predicting stevenage will play their under 12s team.. perhaps bold but i would agree unless you catch the swing at right point maybe best to stay away!

R :D
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Kafkaesque
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Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

220.000 on the Stevenage one, but that's all the steaming. I've seen matches in this tournament this season with anywhere from less than 5.000 to 500.000 matched at kick-off. Which should be further evidence, that there's only anything to be gained by market movers, and it should really only be entered really proactively.

Drifted back out to the 1.75-1.80 mark, incidently. Should have gone in :evil:
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Interesting looking at the Ireland vs Denmark prices

The market is suggesting that an Ireland win is the least likely outcome.

I struggle to accept that, especially in front of a fired up Dublin crowd.
Denmark aren't exactly one of the experienced powerhouses of Europe
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Naffman
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The market is suggesting a Denmark win is most likely :)
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Euler
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

0-0 has 65% of the volume in the correct score market and is trading at 5.90. So it seems the market thinks Denmark will just shut up shop. I'd imagine Roy Keane may have something to say about that.
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