In play analysis from JonnyG Via the time of the opening goal / survival analysis / fightback analysis

[jonnyg]

Altach opened the scoring on 20

9/4 9/4 6/5 on 27 minutes

> in this profile in Europa Play off > away team open the scoring 0-20 minutes time band we see > lowered expectation of a draw >

the draw should be around 9/2 at 0-1 in this game <

at 1-1

4/5 13/8 11/2 < with high expectation of further goal(s) production in the 2nd half given the first half events and as a result lowered expectation of a draw < the draw should be much bigger then 13/8 >

1-2 < GETINNNNNNN

[jonnyg]

have a look at early away goal 0-20 minutes Europa playoff and what you see is that 1-1 FT is monster rare

i was speaking to a chap who is full time in the betting industry > i said I am blowing my own trumpet > I think I am a genius < he said > " if you are a genius then why have you never had a job offer in the betting industry "

[jonnyg]

a quick experiment re Portugal segunda 1-0 HT to the home team >

I am going to map out the pathway to see how a tech person would be able to show the format in a way that would be palatable >

F = fightback goal 46-70 time band

1-1 F > 2-1
1-1 F > 2-1
1-0
> 2-0 > 3-0
> 2-0 > 3-0
> 2-0 > 2-1
> 2-0>3-0
> 1-1
> 2-0
> 2-0 > 2-1 > 3-1 > 4-1
> 1-1F > 1-2> 2-2
>2-0 > 3-0
> 1-1 F > 1-2
> 1-1
> 2-0 > 2-1 > 3-1 > 4-1 > 5-1
> 1-1 F > 2-1
> 1-1 F > 1-2 > 1-3
> 1-1 > 1-2 > 1-3
> 1-1F > 1-2 > 2-2 > 2-3
> 2-0 > 2-1
> 1-1 F > 1-2
1-0
> 2-0
1-0
> 2-0 > 2-1
1-0
> 1-1F > 2-1
> 1-1F > 1-2 > 1-3
> 2-0 > 2-1
> 2-0 > 3-0
> 1-1F > 1-2 > 2-2
> 2-0
> 2-0
> 1-1
1-0
> 1-1 > 1-2
> 2-0 > 3-0 > 4-0
> 1-1F > 1-2 > 2-2
1-0
1-0
1-0
> 1-1F > 1-2
> 2-0
1-0
> 2-0 > 2-1
1-0
> 2-0 > 3-0
> 2-0 > 2-1 > 3-1
> 2-0 > 2-1
1-0
1-0
> 2-0 > 2-1 > 3-1
> 2-0
1-0
> 1-1F
> 1-1 > 2-1
1-0
> 2-0
> 2-0 > 2-1
> 1-1F
> 2-0 > 3-0 > 3-1
> 1-1 F > 2-1 > 3-1
> 2-0 > 2-1 > 3-1
> 2-0 > 3-0
> 1-1 F
> 1-1
> 2-0 > 3-0 > 4-0
> 2-0 > 3-0 > 3-1
> 2-0 > 3-0 > 4-0 > 4-1
> 2-0
> 2-0 > 2-1
> 2-0
> 1-1
1-0
1-0
> 2-0 > 3-0
> 1-1 F
> 2-0 > 2-1
> 2-0 > 3-0
> 1-1 F > 2-1
> 2-0
> 1-1
1-0
> 1-1
1-0
> 2-0
1-0
> 2-0 > 3-0
> 1-1
> 1-1F
1-0
1-0
1-0
2-0
2-0
> 2-0 > 2-1
> 1-1 F > 2-1 > 2-2
> 1-1
1-0
> 2-0 > 3-0
> 2-0 > 2-1 > 3-1 > 4-1 > 5-1
1-0
1-0
> 2-0
> 1-1
> 2-0 > 3-0
> 1-1F > 1-2 > 1-3 > 1-4 > 1-5
> 1-1
> 2-0 > 3-0
. 2-0 > 3-0
1-0
> 2-0 > 2-1 > 3-1
> 1-1 F > 2-1
> 1-1 F
> 1-1 F > 2-1
> 1-1
1-0
> 1-1F > 1-2
> 1-1F
> 2-0
1-0
> 1-1F > 1-2

you should note in the games above that produced the F > expectation of further goals(s) < in effect the fightback metric is acting as a catalyst for further goal(s) in Segunda <

[jonnyg]

when Altach opened the scoring on 20 minutes we should have seen expectation of acceleration of goal production and as a result lowered expectation of a draw < very rare in early away Europa play off BUT FT 2-2

[jonnyg]

last 122 games in Portugal Segunda 1-0 at HT to the home team >

49% over 2.5 goals = call it Evens < the offer at HT will be Evens - 11/8

GAME PATHWAY

28/122 1-0 FT = 23%

> 1-1 in 46-70 time band < 28/122 with 21/28 over 2.5 = 75%

> 1-1 43/122

> 2-0 51/122

if you read the academic research into survival analysis and football > the core conclusion is that the team conceding the opening goal will shoot more and score more > the flaw is that they failed to look at the effect of the time of the opening goal in individual leagues


the away teams won only 11/122

this is a key point > if you are obsessed with starting prices < the betting industry will spank you <

In portugal segunda in games 1-0 HT to home team with the away team the perceived much stronger < low expectation of an away win which the market will not factor <

[jonnyg]

Summary

Joe Public decides that want to look at 1-0 HT to the home team in Portugal Segunda <

they go to a site and pull out 1-0 HT portugal segunda <

it is not going to show < pathways < times of goals < fightback metrics <

[jonnyg]

keep an eye on wacker game < austria erste if 1-0 HT < because opening goal 0-10 minutes erste league and 1-0 HT game state >

low expectation of away team fighting back = survival analysis

Erste league in games where the home team opened the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and 1-0 HT

last 26

54% over 2.5 goals

21-3-2 < home teams won 81%, 35% produced a goal 80 + minutes

GAME PATHWAY

7/26 1-0 FT

11/26 > 2-0 10-1-0

8/26 > 1-1 4-2-2

[jonnyg]

wacker 1-0 HT

3/10 15/4 17/2 > Wacker are offered at 3/10 and should be around 1/4

> 2-0 = 21/10

1-0 FT = 3/1

> 1-1 = 13/8

over 2.5 is offered at evens < should be around 4/5

[LeTiss]

That's a lovely touch there JonnyG - Wacker now 3-0 up

[jonnyg]

wacker 1-0 HT

3/10 15/4 17/2 > Wacker are offered at 3/10 and should be around 1/4

> 2-0 = 21/10

1-0 FT = 3/1

> 1-1 = 13/8

over 2.5 is offered at evens < should be around 4/5

FT 3-0 > that is very strong analysis > I have no idea who plays for Wacker and no idea what the SP was and no idea what the shot on target production was

[jonnyg]

Celta early away goal and > 1-1

on 40 minutes we have the following prices >

6/4 8/5 13/5

Posted on: January 22nd, 2017

In the table below I have added the last 50 games in La Liga where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes and 1-1 half time , 88% ended over 2.5 goals and 44% ended over 3.5 goals .

29-11-10 home teams won 58%

GAME PATHWAY

6/50 1-1 FT

> 2-1 29/50 27-2-0 <> home teams won 93%

> 1-2 15/50 2-3-10 <> away teams won 67%

3/50 ended 2-2

[jonnyg]

If the Betis game is 1-1 HT you should look at backing betis draw no bet

betis 1-1 ht

13/8 6/4 13/5

betis 3rd goal = 6/5 , no 3rd goal = 5/2 , celta 3rd goal = 13/8

over 2.5 = 2/7 , over 3.5 = 6/5

[jonnyg]

1'
Mateo Cassierra
1 - 0
12'
Robert Muric
2 - 0
52'
Robert Muric
3 - 0
57'

3 - 1
Perr Schuurs
60'

3 - 2
Lisandro Semedo
75'
Dennis Johnsen
4 - 2

in 2014 the racing post advised that the opening goal on 1 minute does not lead to a landslide of goals

in general it does

[jonnyg]

Go Ahead Eagles
1 - 1
NEC View events More info
0 - 1
11' S. Braken
S. Hendriks 14'
1 - 1

this game not in line with expectation


Last 50 games in Holland Jupiler where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band and 1-1 HT

20-17-13 > away teams won 26%

1/0,26% = 3.85

42/50 over 2.5 goals = 84% , 1/0.84 = 1.19

50% over 3.5 goals = Evens

30% over 4.5 goals = 3.33

average goal production = 3.74

[jonnyg]

If the Betis game is 1-1 HT you should look at backing betis draw no bet

betis 1-1 ht

13/8 6/4 13/5

betis 3rd goal = 6/5 , no 3rd goal = 5/2 , celta 3rd goal = 13/8

over 2.5 = 2/7 , over 3.5 = 6/5

you will not find better free in play analysis on social media > I am a genius <