In play analysis from JonnyG Via the time of the opening goal / survival analysis / fightback analysis

[jonnyg]

LeTiss wrote: ↑Fri Aug 25, 2017 6:59 pm
That's a lovely touch there JonnyG - Wacker now 3-0 up

indeed

next I advised Betis draw no bet at HT

Real Betis
2 - 1
Celta de Vigo View events More info
0 - 1
10' M. Gómez
Sergio León 31'
1 - 1
Z. Feddal 77'
2 - 1

have a look at the opening goal by away team in La Liga 0-20 minutes and 1-1 HT >

1. lowered expectation of an away win >

2. if goes to > 2-1 pathway = monster high % end a home win

3. 2-2 FT in this profile is very rare >



consider how many people are offering free in play analysis on social media at such a high level for free > I think I am the only one

I gave 100% winners last night and Pete is not happy my mate Dave was delighted

back in a few weeks > love you

[Sovereign]

You mean unlike the high quality thread *and discussion* on this very forum, with data provided? It seems very foolish to poke PW when he owns this site.

Please come back with some humility and the ability to listen.

[jonnyg]

Premier League in games where the away team open the scoring in 40-HT time band and 0-1 HT

last 25

1-4-20

away teams won 80% = 1/4

GAME PATHWAY

6/25 0-1 FT

11/25 > 0-2 0-0-11

8/25 > 1-1 1-4-3

48% over 2.5 goals


Crystal Palace
0 - 2
Swansea City View events More info
0 - 1
44' T. Abraham
0 - 2
48' J. Ayew

[jonnyg]

AFC Bournemouth
1 - 2
Manchester City View events More info
C. Daniels 13'
1 - 0
1 - 1
21' Gabriel Jesus
1 - 2
90' R. Sterling

2014-2015 season in the Premier League in games where the home team opened the scoring 11-20 minutes , the home teams won 53% < some expectation of the away teams fighting back , and the average goal production was 3.3 > some expectation of acceleration of goal production

2015-2016 season in the Premier League in games where the home team opened the scoring 11-20 minutes , the home teams won 53% , and the average goal production was 4.00

2016-2017 in the Premier League in games where the home team opened the scoring 11-20 minutes

28-3-4 > home teams won 80%

43% produced a goal 80 + minutes

average goal production = 3.69

[jonnyg]

Newcastle United
3 - 0
West Ham United View events More info
Joselu 36'
1 - 0
C. Clark 72'
2 - 0
A. Mitrović 86'
3 - 0


west ham last 30 away in Pl when losing 1-0 HT game state

24-4-2 < lost 80% = 1/4

[jonnyg]

imagine you are preparing for the game below

Chelsea
13 : 30
Everton

Chelsea at Home in PL when conceding opening goal in 0-20 time band since 2003-2004 >26 games

15-7-4 <> lost only 15% which is incredible

46% produced a goal(s) 80+ minutes

23/26 over 2.5 and 15/26 over 3.5

Everton conceding the opening Goal Away in the League in the 0-10 Minutes Time Band since 2003-2004 > 30 games

18-9-3 < Everton lost 60%

67% over 2.5 goals and 50% over 3.5 goals

Chelsea at home in PL when winning 1-0 HT gam state < last 30 > 24-6-0

Chelsea at home in PL when 0-0 Ht game state , last 30 > 17-9-4

chelsea at home in PL when 0-1 HT game state , we have a small sample > last 12 > 5-2-5

Everton away when winning 1-0 HT game state in PL since 08-09

5-8-12 Everton won 48% < a very poor return away at that game state

Everton last 30 away when 0-0 HT game state in PL 4-16-10 < this is incredible < Everton only lost 4/30 at Man UTD , Chelsea X 2 and Spurs

Everton last 30 away when losing 1-0 HT game state in PL > 21-6-3

Everton lost 70%

[jonnyg]

it is easy to find half time game state data < for free > football data uk would be the best place in terms of downloading onto a spreadsheet .

the problem you will, face is time of the opening goal scraping >

I want data in format

home team open scoring 0-10 11-20 21-30 31-39 and 40-HT

and away team open the scoring 0-20 21-30 31-39 and 40 -HT

not one site is offering this banding >

the next problem is pathway data < i want that as well so > 1-0 > 1-1 etc etc and i want that to be incorporated into the time of the opening goal in an individual league <

I cannot find anyone that can do it thus far < but I have been approached by someone recently who says they can and will keep you updated if this does happen

[jonnyg]

Chelsea in the PL when opening the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band > at HOME

last 20 > 16-1-3

average goal production 4.00

how does the time of the opening goal in the PL effect expectation of the other team fighting back , effect accuracy ?

4-2 2-1 1-2 4-0 3-0 3-0 5-1 3-1 1-3 1-3 1-1 2-0 3-0 6-0 2-1 2-1 2-1 8-0 6-1 3-0

deans court advised my data format is chronic < well I added a beautiful spreadsheet to my blog for early goal data 08-09 - 15/16 for a number of leagues showing TEAM data < received zero exposure <

[jonnyg]

this is a serious point < what we are seeing re football data and analytics today is top heavy tech people who dont have strong data analytical skills dominating the landscape which is why football data and analytics is in such a rut today < years behind where it should be <

we simply dont have sharp people looking at football data and analytics > well not enough anyway <

A chap I am friendly with who has a high up role in a betting company said the same thing < not just me thinking this < honest >

[jonnyg]

Everton away in the PL when opening the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band > last 20 >

3-2 1-3 0-3 1-1 1-2 0-1 3-2 2-1 1-3 0-2 2-2 0-2 3-1 2-1 1-3 1-3 1-2 2-2 1-1 2-3

5-4-11 > Everton won 55%

average goal production = 3.35

[jonnyg]

every time i post data < I am advised I am cutting and pasting < I am cutting and pasting my own data that I collated >


In the Premier League 2015-2016 season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band, 73% ended over 2.5 goals and 51% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 56% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 73%

The home teams won 78%, 15% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 7% < lowered expectation of the games ending a DRAW 31% of the games in the table below produced a goal 80 + minutes GAME PATHWAY

3/41 1-0 FT

26/41 > 2-0 24-2-0 <> home teams won 92%

12/41 > 1-1 5-4-3 home teams won 42%

32-6-3

In the Premier League 2016-2017 season where the home teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band,

75% ended over 2.5 goals and 54% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 65% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 71%

36-5-7 > the home teams won 75% < lowered expectation of the away teams fighting back average goal production = goal goal goal .65 44% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes GAME PATHWAY

4/48 1-0 FT

25/48 > 2-0 24-0-1 home teams won 96%

19 /48 > 1-1 8-5-6 home teams won 42%

89 games in the Premier League where the home team opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-10 minutes time band 2015-2016 -2016-2017

68-11-10 > the home teams won 76%

GAME PATHWAY

7/89 1-0 FT

51/89 > 2-0 48-2-1 > home teams won 94% > is a 2-0 lead ” precarious ” ?

31/89 > 1-1 13-9-9 > home teams won 42%


THIS IS MY DATA which I collated < took a long time to collate so please dont delete

[jonnyg]

2015-2016 season in the Premier League in games where the away teams opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band , 76% ended over 2.5 goals and 46% ended over 3.5 goals.

Both teams scored in 73% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 75%

The home teams won 13%, 25% ended a DRAW and the away teams won 62%

38% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes

GAME PATHWAY

6/63 0-1 FT

29/63 > 1-1 <> 7-13-9 away teams won 31%

28/63 > 0-2 <> 1-3-24 away teams won 86%

2016-2017 season in the premier League in games where the away team opened the scoring with a goal in the 0-20 minutes time band ,
82% ended over 2.5 goals and 66% ended over 3.5 goals .

Both teams scored in 83% and over 1.5 goals was landed in the first half in 70%

The home teams won 28.33%, 23.33% eded a DRAW and the away teams won 48.33%

38% produced a goal (s) 80 + minutes

GAME PATHWAY

1/60 0-1 FT

35/60 > 1-1 > 16-13-6 > away teams won 17%

24/60 > 0-2 > 1-1-22 away teams won 92%

123 games in the Premier League where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band 2015-2016-2016-2017

7/123 0-1 FT

64/123 > 1-1 23-26-15 away teams won 23%

52/123 > 0-2 2-4-46 away teams won 88%

[jonnyg]

The Effect of the Early Away Goal in the Premier League 2008-2009-2015-2016

away team opened the scoring in 0-20 minutes time band

2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016
Games 45 54 69 62 69 65 58 63

Over 2.5 % 73% 69% 71% 69% 81% 74% 75% 76%

Over3.5% 40% 41% 41% 42% 61% 55% 42% 46%

0-1 HT goal 0-20 % Over 2.5 53% 30% 54% 38.50% 61% 55% 48% 50%

0-1 HT goal 0-20 Away W% 58% 65% 58% 81% 48% 69% 95% 69%

0-1 HT goal 0-20 Draw % 26% 22% 29% 11% 35% 21% 0% 19%

0-1 HT goal 0-20 Home % 16% 13% 13% 8% 17% 10% 5% 12%

opening goal by away team 0-20 and 1-1 HT Away W% 27% 8% 15% 33% 30% 25% 13% 31%

Goal 80+ 42% 46% 45% 50% 33% 46% 44% 38%

Home Win 20% 33% 22% 13% 23% 25% 22% 13%

Draw 27% 24% 29% 15% 28% 18% 17% 25%

Away Win 53% 43% 49% 72% 49% 57% 61% 62%

BTTS YES 69% 78% 78% 68% 85.50% 69% 71% 73%

over 1.5 FH 58% 57% 65% 58% 67% 55% 66% 75%

that took me over 100 hours to produce and a site lifted the data and posted as their own to try and sell premium early goal tips

[jonnyg]

i will not mention their forum name < but just to say i received a lovely PM from a forumite that could not understand why the forum mod etc / owner is so keen to repel me <

appreciated

I am taking a holiday from social media for a few weeks > I intend to come back to this thread to power out intellectually stimulating high level data and analytics >

my humble advice is do your own research < dont let soccer mystic control your trading <

[Euler]

this is a serious point < what we are seeing re football data and analytics today is top heavy tech people who dont have strong data analytical skills dominating the landscape which is why football data and analytics is in such a rut today < years behind where it should be <

we simply dont have sharp people looking at football data and analytics > well not enough anyway <

A chap I am friendly with who has a high up role in a betting company said the same thing < not just me thinking this < honest >

That's not true, I know a lot of odds compilers and have studied and modeled matches since the mid-eighties and there are very highly intelligent people in the odds compiling business. There is a whole industry around analytics. I've met some of the big syndicates and academics they have it off to a tee and make a lot of money. You are on completely the wrong track in thinking that looking at matches years ago has any influence on a match taking place today.

If you think you have an edge keep it quiet, put it to use and go head to head with the industry, you would make a fortune if you have an edge. If you have an edge, use it.

You just don't seem to get it. But It's really annoying to everybody to post reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams and reams of the same stuff day after day after day.

Just pointless, it really winds people up.