comparing the early home goal in League 1 V the Premier Legue using minute by minute data

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jonnyg
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league 1 where home team opened the scoring in 0-10 time band and 1-1 with 46 minutes elapsed . 47 , 48 etc >>>>


46 1.73
47 1.78
48 1.78
49 1.75
50 1.78
51 1.78
52 1.75
53 1.77
54 1.81
55 1.85
56 1.92
57 1.96
58 2.0
59 2.05
60 2.05
61 2.14
62 2.14
63 2.14
64 2.26
65 2.26
66 2.25
67 2.32
68 2.39
69 2.47
70 2.39

and expectation of over 2.5 goals > looking at last 5 season completed data


Premier League > in games where home team opened scoring in 0-10 minutes time band and 1-1 with 46 47 48 elapsed etc

46 1.28
47 1.28
48 1.28
49 1.27
50 1.29
51 1.3
52 1.31
53 1.31
54 1.32
55 1.33
56 1.33
57 1.35
58 1.35
59 1.35
60 1.38
61 1.43
62 1.42
63 1.43
64 1.45
65 1.45
66 1.48
67 1.53
68 1.56
69 1.53
70 1.53
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jonnyg
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which sample would you rather back over 2.5 goals in at 1-1 ?

which sample will have the most draw bias ?
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jonnyg
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Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

league 1 last 5 completed seasons where home team opened the scoring in 0-10 minutes time band and 1-1 half time game state

14-21-3 < note the draw bias and the low expectation of an away win <

> 2-1 = 11/8

1-1 FT = 11/8

> 1-2 = 6.33 = just over 5/1


the market will have much more expectation of over 2.5 goals in this profile then they should have in league 1 < hence the draw bias

Premier League last 5 completed seasons where home team opened the scoring in 0-10 minutes time band and 1-1 half time game state

12-15-14 < no home bias at all >

> 2-1 = 2.41 = 7/5

1-1 FT = 4.56 = 7/2

> 1-2 = 2.73 = 7/4

we can clearly see in the Premier League HT sample that there will be a much higher expectation of over 2.5 goals which as a result will lower the draw bias <
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jonnyg
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Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

we will see a new wave of football data sites competing for market share <


http://www.thestatsdontlie.com/football/

here is an example <

what they are not offering is time of the opening goal data and game state data <

the obvious point is that this is an area that is not getting any exposure so by definition people are not looking for that data <

which I am now in a position to offer on a minute by minute basis in a number of leagues >
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Dallas
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Location: Working From Home

jonnyg wrote:
Sat Oct 07, 2017 10:56 am
we will see a new wave of football data sites competing for market share <

what they are not offering is time of the opening goal data and game state data <

the obvious point is that this is an area that is not getting any exposure so by definition people are not looking for that data <

which I am now in a position to offer on a minute by minute basis in a number of leagues >
There is no need to begin posting realms of messages like those at the start of this thread again, several sites have all the goal time data going back over 15years for just about every worthwhile league on the planet which anyone can access. I gave the name of one site in another thread which Welshboy kindly scraped and shared all the data with the whole forum community in several different formats making it easy to work with and accessible by anyone wanting to look at it even if they dont know how to scrape for themselves.
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=14776

Not only is it easy to work with but it’s in far greater depth than you have been able to manually collect in the last five years which makes cutting and pasting this sort of stuff on here completely pointless when everyone who’s interested already has access to it.

In answer to your earlier question

"which sample would you rather back over 2.5 goals in at 1-1 ? and which sample will have the most draw bias ?"

To find the answer took less than half the time than it did to type this post
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jonnyg
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"Not only is it easy to work with but it’s in far greater depth than you have been able to manually collect in the last five years which makes cutting and pasting this sort of stuff on here completely pointless when everyone who’s interested already has access to it ".

you may have missed the point dallas ?

I am now offering automated data in a number of leagues looking at opening goal

0-10

11-20

21-30

31-39

40 _HT > home team added to game state as time decays

and for away

0-20

21-30

31-40

40-HT

on a minute by minute basis as shown above > key point is the minute by minute basis > ;)
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jonnyg
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Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

the leagues I can offer at the moment on a minute by minute basis

PL
championship
league 1
Veikausliga
ligue 1 and 2
Bundesliga 1 and 2
serie a
Norway prem
alsvenskan
La liga

with more leagues to be added < this data is now fully automated >

the additional edge is that I also am happy to provide in play commentary / trading strategy to compliment the data >

TEAM data will also be added at a future data < automated >
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jonnyg
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Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

Southend United
2 - 1
Blackpool View events More info
A. Wordsworth 5'
1 - 0
S. Cox 46'
2 - 0
2 - 1
56' K. Vassell


i can look at the automated data 1-0 HT to home team in league 1 added to opening goal 0-10 time band to produce

a sample of 115 games

80-22-13

< 2-0 which was the pathway in this game averages out at 2.17

> 1-1 = .288

> 1-0 FT = 5.23

over 1.5 = 1.24

over 2.5 = 2.13

btts yes = 1.85

at 2-0 < I can go to my automated app and key in the information >

we now have a game which is opening goal 0-10 and 2-0 on 46

sample = 62

58-3-1

> 3-0 = 2.21

> 2-1 = 3.1

2-0 FT = 4.43

BTTS YES = 2.21

over 2.5 = 1.29

over 3.5 = 2,58

at 2-1 on 56 I can go back to the automated app and key in the data >

sample is now 35

27-4-4

.> 3-1 = 2.69

> 2-2 = 3.18

2-1 FT = 3.18

at 2-1 I can re visit on 575859606162 etc etc to define the expected outcome which is the prices as time decays in the game > minute by minute data

as long as there is an opening goal in the first half > I can cover every game in the leagues above > and offer minute by minute data for next goal , btts yes / no over 1.5 , 2.5 . 3.5 <
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jonnyg
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Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

jonnyg wrote:
Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:46 am
league 1 where home team opened the scoring in 0-10 time band and 1-1 with 46 minutes elapsed . 47 , 48 etc >>>>


46 1.73
47 1.78
48 1.78
49 1.75
50 1.78
51 1.78
52 1.75
53 1.77
54 1.81
55 1.85
56 1.92
57 1.96
58 2.0
59 2.05
60 2.05
61 2.14
62 2.14
63 2.14
64 2.26
65 2.26
66 2.25
67 2.32
68 2.39
69 2.47
70 2.39

and expectation of over 2.5 goals > looking at last 5 season completed data


Premier League > in games where home team opened scoring in 0-10 minutes time band and 1-1 with 46 47 48 elapsed etc

46 1.28
47 1.28
48 1.28
49 1.27
50 1.29
51 1.3
52 1.31
53 1.31
54 1.32
55 1.33
56 1.33
57 1.35
58 1.35
59 1.35
60 1.38
61 1.43
62 1.42
63 1.43
64 1.45
65 1.45
66 1.48
67 1.53
68 1.56
69 1.53
70 1.53
the app has been christened

GAME STATE and match > which i think is appropriate :lol:
convoysur-2
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Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am

Dallas ,
I do believe someone is pushing you just to see how far you will go,
Marc
convoysur-2
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Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am

edit
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Dublin_Flyer
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Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am

Lock thread please, everyone's sick of this crap.
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jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

Oxford United
3 - 0
AFC Wimbledon View events More info
W. Thomas 12'
1 - 0
Ricardinho 48'
2 - 0
Xemi 85'
3 - 0


LEAGUE 1 last 5 completed seasons where home team opened scoring in 11-20 time band and 1-0 HT

sample = 117

90-19-8

go to 2-0 = 2.34

go to 1-1 = 3.34

1-0 FT = 3.66

btts yes = 2.21

over 1.5 = 1.38

over 2.5 = 2.6

at 2-0 on 48 < 1-0 < opening goal 11-20 >

sample = 58

53-2-3

> 3-0 = 2.9

> 2-1 = 3.05

2-0 FT = 3.05

BTTS YES = 2.52

over 2.5 = 1.49
over 3.5 = 3.22


what I have done over the last few years is to look at survival analysis in terms of the effect in a game of football > in basic terms when a team open the scoring > how likely is > 1-1 > 2-0/ 0-2 < or will the game stick at 0-1 / 1-0 < the automated data can work out to a high accuracy given the time of the opening goal < expectation of the other team fighting back >

I have also added minute by minute data which has also been automated
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jonnyg
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Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

This game may not have caught your eye last night < BUT <

Criciúma
2 - 1
Londrina View events More info
0 - 1
12' Negueba
Alex Maranhão 45'
1 - 1
Lucão 50'
2 - 1

last 46 games in Brazil Serie B where the away team opened the scoring in 0-20 minute time band and 1-1 half time game state and 0/46 ended 2-2 < have a look at game pathway analysis >

23-14-9

GAME PATHWAY


14/46 1-1 FT

21/46 > 2-1 21-0-0 ;)

11/46 > 1-2 2-0-9

at HT over 3.5 was offered at 6/5 > in the last 46 games that fit the profile > 28% ended over 3.5 goals

1/0.28 = 5/2 <

if you have an in play model based around survival analysis / game state > it is possible to price games in play at a higher level then the betting industry algorithm >

at 2-1 bet365 offered 2-2 FT at 7/2 :P
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jonnyg
Posts: 691
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

Championship where home team opened the scoring in 0-10 time band and 1-1 with 46 minutes elapsed . 47 , 48 etc >>>> in terms of expectation of over 2.5 goals < looking at last 5 season completed data >

46 1.2
47 1.23
48 1.22
49 1.27
50 1.29
51 1.31
52 1.31
53 1.31
54 1.33
55 1.38
56 1.44
57 1.46
58 1.52
59 1.55
60 1.55
61 1.62
62 1.70
63 1.71
64 1.75
65 1.79
66 1.79
67 1.83
68 1.83
69 1.83
70 1.83

Premier League > in games where home team opened scoring in 0-10 minutes time band and 1-1 with 46 47 48 elapsed etc

46 1.28
47 1.28
48 1.28
49 1.27
50 1.29
51 1.3
52 1.31
53 1.31
54 1.32
55 1.33
56 1.33
57 1.35
58 1.35
59 1.35
60 1.38
61 1.43
62 1.42
63 1.43
64 1.45
65 1.45
66 1.48
67 1.53
68 1.56
69 1.53
70 1.53


you can see that the Premier League pricing expectation for over 2.5 goals is in a much narrow range then the Championship > the reason is that the away fightback metric in the PL ( 2nd half ) so 1-0 HT to home team and > 1-1 pathway in the 46-70 time band and much higher expectation of further goal(s) production then in the same profile in the Championship >
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