comparing the early home goal in League 1 V the Premier Legue using minute by minute data

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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convoysur-2
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Dublin_Flyer
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Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am

Lock thread please, everyone's sick of this crap.
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jonnyg
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Oxford United
3 - 0
AFC Wimbledon View events More info
W. Thomas 12'
1 - 0
Ricardinho 48'
2 - 0
Xemi 85'
3 - 0


LEAGUE 1 last 5 completed seasons where home team opened scoring in 11-20 time band and 1-0 HT

sample = 117

90-19-8

go to 2-0 = 2.34

go to 1-1 = 3.34

1-0 FT = 3.66

btts yes = 2.21

over 1.5 = 1.38

over 2.5 = 2.6

at 2-0 on 48 < 1-0 < opening goal 11-20 >

sample = 58

53-2-3

> 3-0 = 2.9

> 2-1 = 3.05

2-0 FT = 3.05

BTTS YES = 2.52

over 2.5 = 1.49
over 3.5 = 3.22


what I have done over the last few years is to look at survival analysis in terms of the effect in a game of football > in basic terms when a team open the scoring > how likely is > 1-1 > 2-0/ 0-2 < or will the game stick at 0-1 / 1-0 < the automated data can work out to a high accuracy given the time of the opening goal < expectation of the other team fighting back >

I have also added minute by minute data which has also been automated
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jonnyg
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This game may not have caught your eye last night < BUT <

Criciúma
2 - 1
Londrina View events More info
0 - 1
12' Negueba
Alex Maranhão 45'
1 - 1
Lucão 50'
2 - 1

last 46 games in Brazil Serie B where the away team opened the scoring in 0-20 minute time band and 1-1 half time game state and 0/46 ended 2-2 < have a look at game pathway analysis >

23-14-9

GAME PATHWAY


14/46 1-1 FT

21/46 > 2-1 21-0-0 ;)

11/46 > 1-2 2-0-9

at HT over 3.5 was offered at 6/5 > in the last 46 games that fit the profile > 28% ended over 3.5 goals

1/0.28 = 5/2 <

if you have an in play model based around survival analysis / game state > it is possible to price games in play at a higher level then the betting industry algorithm >

at 2-1 bet365 offered 2-2 FT at 7/2 :P
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jonnyg
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Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:11 pm

Championship where home team opened the scoring in 0-10 time band and 1-1 with 46 minutes elapsed . 47 , 48 etc >>>> in terms of expectation of over 2.5 goals < looking at last 5 season completed data >

46 1.2
47 1.23
48 1.22
49 1.27
50 1.29
51 1.31
52 1.31
53 1.31
54 1.33
55 1.38
56 1.44
57 1.46
58 1.52
59 1.55
60 1.55
61 1.62
62 1.70
63 1.71
64 1.75
65 1.79
66 1.79
67 1.83
68 1.83
69 1.83
70 1.83

Premier League > in games where home team opened scoring in 0-10 minutes time band and 1-1 with 46 47 48 elapsed etc

46 1.28
47 1.28
48 1.28
49 1.27
50 1.29
51 1.3
52 1.31
53 1.31
54 1.32
55 1.33
56 1.33
57 1.35
58 1.35
59 1.35
60 1.38
61 1.43
62 1.42
63 1.43
64 1.45
65 1.45
66 1.48
67 1.53
68 1.56
69 1.53
70 1.53


you can see that the Premier League pricing expectation for over 2.5 goals is in a much narrow range then the Championship > the reason is that the away fightback metric in the PL ( 2nd half ) so 1-0 HT to home team and > 1-1 pathway in the 46-70 time band and much higher expectation of further goal(s) production then in the same profile in the Championship >
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Dallas
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Location: Working From Home

Dublin_Flyer wrote:
Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:37 am
Lock thread please, everyone's sick of this crap.
I actually done exactly what he's now doing a few months ago and even posted a screenshot of the underlying spreadsheet
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=14776&start=59
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