Newbie Trading Q

[Sundance_Kid]

Hey all, been reading the site on/off for the last couple of weeks and watched some of Peters videos on youtube - alot of great resources and contributors.
I would have an interest in football and have always liked a bet on the football. A good few years back I went through a phase of laying 0-0 on matches.

Anyway, I decided to deposit a small amount of cash into my BF account (based on some winnings I had on the horses recently).

I took the approach of selecting games I expected goals in and laying the draw and look to green up once a goal was scored (hopefully). I did this on a few games during the week in the Champions/Europa League and managed to win a small few quid.

I did it again today and took Euler's ratings for todays matches, I took the top 6 matches for goals (see below). Unfortunately I missed Chelsea v Watford as the game had already started/finished by the time he had posted his selections.

Below is is how I fared and what I did. Any tips/advice is greatly appreciated. Obviously I made a loss on the day so just looking for some feedback. Thanks

3.09 : Home 1.49 Away 1.60 - Mgladbach vs. Leverkusen - Laid the draw for stake of €20 @ 4.00 before ko. Using Cash Out option I greened up 14 mins into game after home team scored a goal after 7 mins. Home team was slightly bigger than away team in pre match odds. Profit before commission of €1.40.

3.02 : Home 2.27 Away 0.74 - Chelsea vs. Watford - didn't trade on as match was an early kick off.

2.92 : Home 1.64 Away 1.27 - Valencia vs. Sevilla - Laid the draw for €10 @ 3.75. Home team and favs scored
after 43mins. After 51 mins, the home team scored a second. I didn't cash out. Profit before commission of €10.00

2.92 : Home 2.06 Away 0.86 - RB Leipzig vs. Stuttgart - Laid the draw for stake of €10.00 @ 5.10 before ko.Home team & strong favs scored after 22 mins. I cashed out after 30 mins of ko (so 8 mins after goal). Profit before commission of €3.62

2.84 : Home 1.12 Away 1.72 - Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Dortmund - Laid the draw for stake of €12.71 @ 3.86 before ko. Away team and favourites scored after 19 minutes. I cashed out 32 mins after ko (13 mins after goal). Profit before commission of €2.70

3.08 : Home 2.14 Away 0.94 - Napoli vs. Inter - Laid the draw for stake of €10 @ 5.1 before ko. It was 0-0 and after around 82/83 mins or so, I cashed out. Loss of €33.16

[Derek27]

3.08 : Home 2.14 Away 0.94 - Napoli vs. Inter - Laid the draw for stake of €10 @ 5.1 before ko. It was 0-0 and after around 82/83 mins or so, I cashed out. Loss of €33.16

I don't know the first thing about football so I can only advise you purely from a betting/trading point of view. You made a small profit from most markets but your loss on the last wiped out all your profits, so you're effectively backing odds-on shots.

There are only two reasons for laying a selection at 5.1: either you think it has a significantly less than 19.6 % chance of winning and you're happy to see the bet out to the end, or you think the chances of a goal being scored allowing you to trade for a profit out-way the chances of a goal not being scored at the point where you are ready to stop your losses.

You also need to decide at what point you want to stop your losses, balancing the potential profit/loss. Allowing the trade to go to 82/83 minutes is close to just placing a bet on a horse at 1-5.

Basically when you are betting, you will lose unless you have an edge, so you need to decide where the edge is, before placing any particular bet or trade.

[Kafkaesque]

Lay the draw has been around forever as a love-hate thing among football traders. Haven't done it myself, as it seems a flawed approach to me. But if you happen not to be aware of it being a widespread strategy, Google is your friend and there should be TONS about the approach to find.

Quite apart from obvious of considering where your stop loss is at etc. (as the 83rd minut in Napoli seemed random?), I'll note one thing that's a commonly overlooked aspect of lay the draw. In the two @5.10 matches, to some extent in the @4.00 one, and also in the Chelsea matches, you're not really speculating that there'll be goals, as you state, but rather that there'll be goals for the favorites. If the dog scores first, the price on the draw actually drops and stays there for a long period, barring the dog looking the FAR superior team(and also a second goal by the dog obviously). Should this be a surprise to you, I'd strongly recommend sitting down and looking at how prices move during matches, before going further and/or using test mode. Soccer Mystic might help (haven't really used it, but other will know, I'm sure).

[ShaunWhite]

I'm afraid 6 games will give you zero indication of your strategy's success. You'll probably have to run it for many hundereds of games before you start to get an idea.

Have a look at the " Is your betting / trading strategy profitable?" video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-i3fSkT9LI

Your staking seems a bit random, why were some 20 and others 10? .... maybe you should just use 2 until you know it's a winning plan.

[ShaunWhite]

Using Cash Out option...

The 'cash out' option on the BF site? You will get a much better return using Bet Angel to 'Green Up' as you control the exit odds.