Telegram Bots

[chakarabet]

Glad you’re finding them useful, LostShaman.

I use the early lead alerts sparingly myself, mostly looking at teams that are 3-0 up in the first half simply because all of their 3 attempts on goal found the net, not because of total domination.

Never hear of this strategy. How would i trade 3 goal lead in the first half?
So when i get an alert from the bot, what do i do next?

Thank you.

Cheers

[northbound]

Never hear of this strategy. How would i trade 3 goal lead in the first half?
So when i get an alert from the bot, what do i do next?

Lay the leading team if the stats show that the match has been evenly contested up to that point.

Or watch the game and lay the leading team if you feel that the loser is striking back.

These are just ideas. If you do this every game regardless, you are unlikely to make money long term.

[chakarabet]

thank you

[Speculator_3]

Northbound, why specifically when a team is 3 goals up? And why specifically at half time interval? Just because then you can lay at very low odds? Because then you'd be missing out on strong teams that by a flukey accident let in, say, 3 goals in the first 20 mins and then strike back already before half time...

Do you trade out all your stake as soon as the other team gets a goal back or wait till they reduce the deficit to one goal? (I'd guess with your selective strategy, waiting till the goal deficit is only one goal, or even for the unlikely event when a draw is reached, gives more value).

[northbound]

Northbound, why specifically when a team is 3 goals up? And why specifically at half time interval?

I never said half time, I said in the first half, so the alert would trigger at 20min if a team is 3 goals up.

As for the way to trade this angle, I’m not currently trading it myself.

[northbound]

Ultimately the objective of an alert is simply to inform you of a specific situation.

An alert should not be viewed as “hey you, it’s time to enter the market”.

Before opening a position, check the odds and assess whether in your opinion they represent value.

[Kai]

Northbound, why specifically when a team is 3 goals up? And why specifically at half time interval? Just because then you can lay at very low odds? Because then you'd be missing out on strong teams that by a flukey accident let in, say, 3 goals in the first 20 mins and then strike back already before half time...

Do you trade out all your stake as soon as the other team gets a goal back or wait till they reduce the deficit to one goal? (I'd guess with your selective strategy, waiting till the goal deficit is only one goal, or even for the unlikely event when a draw is reached, gives more value).

Sometimes it's not a bad idea to wait for halftime, the game resets and the 2nd half can turn out very differently as you're well aware. There's also a common theme among top football traders, that (early) 2 goal leads can often create some value as well.

[Derek27]

One of my preferred trades is laying teams that take a 3 goal lead during the first half.

When I used to tinker with football I remember quite a few occasions when a team 3 goals down came back to level the score. I bet you must have had the odd massive swing/payout using that strategy?

[northbound]

One of my preferred trades is laying teams that take a 3 goal lead during the first half.

When I used to tinker with football I remember quite a few occasions when a team 3 goals down came back to level the score. I bet you must have had the odd massive swing/payout using that strategy?

I did it quite religiously for a few months in 2016 and yes, you get used to plenty of small losses and the occasional big payout.

After a few months I was breaking even, so stopped, but still get involved occasionally now if there are two evenly matched teams and one scored 3 goals with 3 attempts and there’s still more than 45min to play.

[Speculator_3]

One of my preferred trades is laying teams that take a 3 goal lead during the first half.

When I used to tinker with football I remember quite a few occasions when a team 3 goals down came back to level the score. I bet you must have had the odd massive swing/payout using that strategy?

I did it quite religiously for a few months in 2016 and yes, you get used to plenty of small losses and the occasional big payout.

After a few months I was breaking even, so stopped, but still get involved occasionally now if there are two evenly matched teams and one scored 3 goals with 3 attempts and there’s still more than 45min to play.

Do you remember how many matches you traded before you came to the conclusion that you are only breaking even?

[northbound]

Do you remember how many matches you traded before you came to the conclusion that you are only breaking even?

Probably between 200-500 matches over a period of 6 months.

From what I recall, I was also often laying teams 2 goals up with 20min to go, if they were actively creating scoring opportunities.

[Kai]

Do you remember how many matches you traded before you came to the conclusion that you are only breaking even?

Probably between 200-500 matches over a period of 6 months.

From what I recall, I was also often laying teams 2 goals up with 20min to go, if they were actively creating scoring opportunities.

What kinda price were you looking to jump on with those? Or were you for the most part ignoring the price on offer?

Nice work with the bot alerts btw, not many would share these.

[northbound]

What kinda price were you looking to jump on with those? Or were you for the most part ignoring the price on offer?

Nice work with the bot alerts btw, not many would share these.

Thanks Kai.

Usually I checked the odds and if they felt low I layed right away. If they felt high, I offered a lower price until matched, especially if the game was still in the first half.

BTW do you always watch the match for a while before entering a trade or also dive in simply because of stats/metrics you saw for example on Sofascore?

[Kai]

I feel that's a good approach, from what I've seen most people ignore the prices and just trade what they think is going to happen.

I prefer not to watch a game if I don't have to, you can usually get a feel for the game after 10-20mins, everyone has their own style but for me personally watching every game just feels like I'm getting diminishing returns, and with that approach I would have no time to trade other markets either. If there's no obvious early inplay trend to jump on and if I'm not trying to catch that first goal, generally I like looking for weird results, undeserved goals, shock early leads etc, the earlier the better so that the result has plenty of time of reverting to mean if that makes sense, ideally with a semi free trade before time decay starts kicking in. That being said I'm more of a technical trader primarily so while I wait for a goal l I usually prefer trading the ebb and flow, particularly on the unders, a bit contrarian but somehow it works out.

[northbound]

Ebb and flow is something I wouldn’t normally associate with unders, though. They tend to go down in price except when there’s a set piece or a long injury time has been announced. What am I missing?