swanst1991 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:28 am
Hi all,
i have a few strategies but the one showing promise is an over 1.5 IP strategy betting at 30 mins and 50 mins with stop loss at 70 if no goals which i am using automation to complete, i have now calculated my average profit per trade, strike rate etc, across 120 bets so far.
after trading for 2 years i have really been around the houses, won a lot lost a lot more etc and I have now dialed it back and am using small stakes and making sure it is profitable before i scale up.
i am now looking to refine this strategy and my first thought it to remove any leagues that are minus profit i have also looked at prices but there appears to be no correlations between price and the trade winning, is this how anyone would refine their strategy? or does anyone have any advice in refining a strategy?
i'm not expecting anyone to feed me their steps but thought it would be worth asking considering the knowledge this forum has.
Thanks in advance
Conor
Obviously you are just putting money in a market where the movement of the odds will be roughly-speaking accurate (in general, averaged over time).
So this is just the same as betting on any outcome at any period of time, in-play.
Therefore you need additional determination of how likely the outcome you are wagering on is in relation to the odds. That would be the usual indicators which show the teams' past behaviour, and their current behaviour.
But basically I think this is the right approach. I think it's good to be very familiar with the odds in the markets you're interested in over certain periods of play, and to understand that these odds are basically a representation of the average match with conventions governing how they move (although skewed depending on the team's playing, etc). Then you can recognise when these odds are very inaccurate (often due to convention), this given the events of the game in question. But I think you need many strategies and time-periods you're familiar with, otherwise you start over-relying (and over-using) the one you feel most familiar/comfortable with.