OU3.5 Scalping

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jimibt
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I'm wondering if anyone has any experience in scalping the ou35 market at the off as i've noticed that this market can have a few nice jumps just after the beginnning of the game (depending on the opening action). one game i'm watching (academically) is the Roma U19 v Sassulolo U19 (https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/f ... .152662977). the odds here quickly shaped up after the 1st 2-3 minutes and have had a very pronounced decay/drift on both sides.

I've only really started looking at ou3.5 but for 10-15 minutes of play, it would appear that you could reap a 20% reward on your stake. of course, all could go t!ts up with an early goasl but just wondered what the experiences were out there... (btw -the below is a memphis market [i.e. practice mode]). the 1st image is taken at 18 minutes, the 2nd at 30 mins.

[edit] - i actually made 2 trades when both the unders and overs were both on 2 odds. i then closed each trade seperately to achieve a rather weird balance between the two selections as shown in the 3rd image. this is a WIP and just looking at how to play around in the 2nd half with two skewed selections..
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Last edited by jimibt on Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
sionascaig
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I don't have stats to back this up but intuitively would the U19, U21 games etc not on average have more goals scored so maybe more risky than 1st appears?
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jimibt
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sionascaig wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:43 am
I don't have stats to back this up but intuitively would the U19, U21 games etc not on average have more goals scored so maybe more risky than 1st appears?
potentially, yes i agree (and maybe a contrarian approach).

was just wondering on the broader perspective on this as it's just something that i've noticed recently. potentially, if the skewed balance (as shown in 3rd image in OP) were to be greened after a gaol, it would make for a more interesting trade type. as for whether waiting for two goals is an option -who knows.
spreadbetting
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All the goal markets are basically derivatives of the supremacy and total goals markets. I'd check to see if these quirks you think you're seeing at 10-15 mins are actual quirks or simply following expected decay.

The problem you'll find with lower liquidity markets like U19's is that the market movements may not be too reliable and can easily be skewed by one or two players who may, or may not, have better info than you.
JTEDL
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For unders scalping 3.5 tends to move slower than 2.5 and 1.5 early in a match, but less of a red if a goal goes in and if no more goals you'll be back where you started towards end of first half.
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jimibt
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SB - i am aware of the adage that if it looks to good to be true, it ain't true. just really seemed out of kilter when reviewing it in tandem with the other decaying markets... potentially was a one off and my retirement at xmas will be somewhat delayed :D

here's how the memphis market eventually looked on closure:
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jimibt
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JTEDL wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:33 am
For unders scalping 3.5 tends to move slower than 2.5 and 1.5 early in a match, but less of a red if a goal goes in and if no more goals you'll be back where you started towards end of first half.
yes, that was definitely my understanding until i saw this one today... will review all the pre match odds markets to see if there are any clues.

[edit] - i think this game may well have been an anomaly insofar as the ou3.5 odds were very close on both sides and that the game was a bit stilted in the opening 45 mins. worth looking out for this type tho...
JTEDL
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You can get good very good odds on 3.5 with a heavy fav, sometimes near evens, this can drop quite quickly early in a game with no goals. Obviously goals are expected, but some of these teams can be slow starters.
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jimibt
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JTEDL wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:49 am
You can get good very good odds on 3.5 with a heavy fav, sometimes near evens, this can drop quite quickly early in a game with no goals. Obviously goals are expected, but some of these teams can be slow starters.
i think this is exactly what this game was tbh... MO odds were 1.72 vs 4.5 (quotient = 0.38), so a medium strong fave in many ways. it was the ou3.5 that were somehow a little skewed from the off literally both on evens after the 5th minute of play).

contrast with another game about to start, which has pretty similar MO odds : https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/f ... .152665242 but has a wider split on the ou3.5 odds -at least ahead of the match start (again,i'm taking these lower league teams with a heavy pinch of salt).
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jimibt
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another one - Kasimpasa 0-0 Menemen - 18th minute:

[Edit] - as it happened, this one was goal free until the 27th minute, then 3 goals inside 12 minutes, so looks like the decay was factored in!
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spreadbetting
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Have you compared these to any predicted decay charts, plus the problem with Betfair charts is that's there isn't a reliable time line attached to them so may be ore accurate if you simply do your own charts from the API feeds rather than rely on the Betfair ones.
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jimibt
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spreadbetting wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 2:49 pm
Have you compared these to any predicted decay charts, plus the problem with Betfair charts is that's there isn't a reliable time line attached to them so may be ore accurate if you simply do your own charts from the API feeds rather than rely on the Betfair ones.
i may just do that as i'm keen to discount or explore further without wasting too much time.
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