Lay The Draw Half Time + Insurance

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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eminbe
Posts: 191
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2012 2:47 pm

Hi
When a game draws at half time 0-0 or 1-1 the liability odds drifts from the start of the game (2-3) odds and when a goal scored the draw odds shifts depending on the time been scored.

The insurance if it remains 0-0 half time back correct score 1-1 if it's 1-1 half time back correct score 2-2. The longer you wait the correct score 1-1 and 2-2 shifts up mean you pay less for insurance only if the score remains the same as from half time.

Cash out when a goal scored in (45-70) mins and in 70 min if no goals I back the 1-1 or 2-2 depending on the half time score for insurance and only cash out after only when the score 2-1 or 1-2 if I have the 1-1 insurance and 3-2 or 2-3 if I have the 2-2 insurance. I lose all the lay the draw liability plus insurance if there are no goals scored in the second half.

I would like to know your feedback on this strategy would it be wiser to get the insurance the same time you lay the draw or wait till its cheaper?

0-0 half time lay the draw
If a goal scored in (45-70) mins cash out and leave the market
In 70 mins back the correct score 1-1 for insurance
Only cash out if the score in 2-1 or 1-2
No goals lost

1-1 half time lay the draw
If a goal scored in (45-70) mins cash out and leave the market
In 70 mins back the correct score 2-2 for insurance
Only cash out if the score in 3-2 or 2-3
No goals lost

Information presented here is for educational or entertainment purposes only. You are responsible for your own actions should you use it.
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BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

I cant speak directly about the strategy you outline but.....

Look for games that meet the following criteria.

- The full-time correct score 0 - 0 back odds are >= 12. (You can still profit as long as its >= 7 but your profits are far less)
- The difference between the Home and Away back odds in the full-time match odds market are <= 0.5 apart
- The lay draw odds in the full-time match odds market is <= 4

When the above is true then you can either break even or make a profit when the Home or Away team scores first.

Average profit is between 30% - 50% of stake.

If in doubt then paper trade the QPR v Stoke game on Saturday 9th March 2019.

All the best,
tootall
Posts: 28
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:33 am

BetScalper wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:06 am
I cant speak directly about the strategy you outline but.....

Look for games that meet the following criteria.

- The full-time correct score 0 - 0 back odds are >= 12. (You can still profit as long as its >= 7 but your profits are far less)
- The difference between the Home and Away back odds in the full-time match odds market are <= 0.5 apart
- The lay draw odds in the full-time match odds market is <= 4

When the above is true then you can either break even or make a profit when the Home or Away team scores first.

Average profit is between 30% - 50% of stake.

If in doubt then paper trade the QPR v Stoke game on Saturday 9th March 2019.

All the best,
So is this just LTD or back 0-0 as well?
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BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

tootall wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:55 am
BetScalper wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:06 am
I cant speak directly about the strategy you outline but.....

Look for games that meet the following criteria.

- The full-time correct score 0 - 0 back odds are >= 12. (You can still profit as long as its >= 7 but your profits are far less)
- The difference between the Home and Away back odds in the full-time match odds market are <= 0.5 apart
- The lay draw odds in the full-time match odds market is <= 4

When the above is true then you can either break even or make a profit when the Home or Away team scores first.

Average profit is between 30% - 50% of stake.

If in doubt then paper trade the QPR v Stoke game on Saturday 9th March 2019.

All the best,
So is this just LTD or back 0-0 as well?
Both
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MemphisFlash
Posts: 2126
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
Location: Leicester

what happens if the score is 1-1 or 2-2? You still Lose
tootall
Posts: 28
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:33 am

MemphisFlash wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 3:25 pm
what happens if the score is 1-1 or 2-2? You still Lose
Think its a trade out when 1st goal goes in. Not sure profit would be that much.
JTEDL
Posts: 536
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 2:21 pm

Lay draw and back 1-1 at HT? I have heard of this one, ie trade out of both on a goal which should be a green on both. But as already said it's a double loss if no goals and got a decision to make at 70 ish mins as odds will start moving away from you fast at that point.
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BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

tootall wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 4:06 pm
MemphisFlash wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 3:25 pm
what happens if the score is 1-1 or 2-2? You still Lose
Think its a trade out when 1st goal goes in. Not sure profit would be that much.
PROFIT is fine if you select the correct games.

The key is the back odds of a Home, Away, Draw and CS 0-0 odds.

Don’t pick games with an odds on favourite because if the underdog scores first you will potentially in a big red situation.

Otherwise you can get out with a nice profit whoever scores first.

- You need evenly matched teams (back odds)
- The draw lay price <= 4
- Correct score 0-0 odds >= 12

Have fun,
thepressure
Posts: 160
Joined: Thu Aug 19, 2021 11:01 am

Ressurecting this thread.

Ive been looking at the LTD strategy as its quite simple, but so many games ive tried today hardly move when the first goal goes in, so you lose your 0-0 back money and are lucky to have a profit on exiting lay the draw. What am I doing wrong, just picking games without a high enough 0-0 odds?

Also - whats the ideal insuance, say my liability is £10 for a £4 win on LTD, does my 0-0 bet need to cover £10 fully, is that the best way?
Michael5482
Posts: 1216
Joined: Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:11 pm

thepressure wrote:
Wed Dec 27, 2023 9:47 pm
Ressurecting this thread.
@
Ive been looking at the LTD strategy as its quite simple, but so many games ive tried today hardly move when the first goal goes in, so you lose your 0-0 back money and are lucky to have a profit on exiting lay the draw. What am I doing wrong, just picking games without a high enough 0-0 odds?

Also - whats the ideal insuance, say my liability is £10 for a £4 win on LTD, does my 0-0 bet need to cover £10 fully, is that the best way?
Separate the two P&L's between correct score and lay the draw. Then see what happens to your P&L, is your P&L more or less with the addition of correct score insurance?
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Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

thepressure wrote:
Wed Dec 27, 2023 9:47 pm
Also - whats the ideal insuance, say my liability is £10 for a £4 win on LTD, does my 0-0 bet need to cover £10 fully, is that the best way?
Ideal insurance is no insurance, surely. Wouldn't betting with value be the best insurance against loss?

Indeed, for people reading this thread (and like Michael implied above) with the concept of "insurance bets" you have to make sure it's not just textbook loss avoidance and loss aversion etc, which would in short obviously be a cognitive bias that suggests that the pain from losing is twice as powerful as the pleasure from gaining. I fell into this trap early on, like most people do.

Technically, if you've got nothing better to do while you wait for your goal you might as well try to win as many ticks as you can if you've got fast enough pictures. But even this would not really be insurance, it would just be using two different edges during the same match. This concept in general is actually one of my staple approaches when I work a match, albeit not as an LTD strategy.
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Archangel
Posts: 1987
Joined: Thu Jun 27, 2013 3:03 pm
Location: Polo Lounge, Beverly Hills Hotel

I agree with the above. In the financial markets I see this a lot, people use the concept of 'hedging' , but all it really is doing is taking away profits from the initial trade. Stop losses are another thing people cling to a lot in trading, but often will find in the long run it costs them profits.

In the options world the general public tend to like to buy them because they offer limited liability and unlimited profits, sound great! (in theory). But the math tells you the premium seller generally has the edge
Michael5482
Posts: 1216
Joined: Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:11 pm

Yes I concur with you both, I was hopefully pushing thepressure towards seeing that insurance isn't really a viable option by separating the two hopefully seeing that with cold hard numbers which I hope he does, then pursue his LTD further on it's own.

It does make me wonder how many times people have been so close to a profitable strategy and the penny hasn't dropped because they've came across something like insurance trading/betting and it's been detrimental to their original idea and binned everything.

Just a thought/observation not a reflection on the poster.
thepressure
Posts: 160
Joined: Thu Aug 19, 2021 11:01 am

Kai wrote:
Thu Dec 28, 2023 1:16 pm
thepressure wrote:
Wed Dec 27, 2023 9:47 pm
Also - whats the ideal insuance, say my liability is £10 for a £4 win on LTD, does my 0-0 bet need to cover £10 fully, is that the best way?
Ideal insurance is no insurance, surely. Wouldn't betting with value be the best insurance against loss?

Indeed, for people reading this thread (and like Michael implied above) with the concept of "insurance bets" you have to make sure it's not just textbook loss avoidance and loss aversion etc, which would in short obviously be a cognitive bias that suggests that the pain from losing is twice as powerful as the pleasure from gaining. I fell into this trap early on, like most people do.

Technically, if you've got nothing better to do while you wait for your goal you might as well try to win as many ticks as you can if you've got fast enough pictures. But even this would not really be insurance, it would just be using two different edges during the same match. This concept in general is actually one of my staple approaches when I work a match, albeit not as an LTD strategy.
Thanks for the response, what do you mean win some ticks?
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Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

thepressure wrote:
Thu Dec 28, 2023 11:31 pm
Thanks for the response, what do you mean win some ticks?
Just meant through scalps, swings, etc, any way you can really. The more strategies/edges you apply and the more trades you push through a market the more you stack the odds in your favour, so to speak, that's the only real "insurance" that I'm aware of, on any one particular match.

Since it's a game of winning ticks in a nutshell, no? Like getting value is. Whether it's in big batches or smaller ones, that's one way you could simplify trading.

Or you could complicate it further by falling into the many cognitive bias traps!
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