How often does the market predict the number of goals correctly based on price?

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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GaryCook
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The main one I am interested in is over/under 2.5 goals. When the odds are lower for one suggesting the market thinks that will win how often is it right, please?

The similar market stats would be cool too if possible.
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Kafkaesque
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GaryCook wrote:
Sun Apr 07, 2019 5:17 pm
The main one I am interested in is over/under 2.5 goals. When the odds are lower for one suggesting the market thinks that will win how often is it right, please?

The similar market stats would be cool too if possible.
I think you need to specify your query, and quantify it more precisely.

Unless I'm missing something, even if you do get the answer to your question, as it stands, said answer would be of zero value.

No matter if the market is correct 5, 55, or 95 percent of the time on the OU 2.5, that doesn't mean anything without taking into account the distribution among the shortest price of the two selections.
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GaryCook
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I get you but with the strategy I am doing all that really matters is how often the market is right on it.
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Kafkaesque
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Martingale? Just a stab, based on your request and (your) history, so fire at will if I'm out of bounds....

I'll be on the other side of your "the price doesn't matter" in OU 2.5 goals-markets, so now that I've tried advice once, then by all means don't let me stop you....
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GaryCook
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It's not a martingale lol. Just something im testing. Im just using it as a signal. And I'm quite successful at trading now anyway.
Been up quite a bit for 6 months.
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Kafkaesque
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GaryCook wrote:
Mon Apr 08, 2019 12:49 am
It's not a martingale lol. Just something im testing. Im just using it as a signal. And I'm quite successful at trading now anyway.
Been up quite a bit for 6 months.
Still sounds strange to me. Be that as it may, I stand corrected. Apologies and all the best with it :) Hope you find the data you need...
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GaryCook
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Kafkaesque wrote:
Mon Apr 08, 2019 1:02 am
Still sounds strange to me. Be that as it may, I stand corrected. Apologies and all the best with it :) Hope you find the data you need...
All good mate. :)
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firlandsfarm
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In an attempt to give you a guideline and nothing more ...

Season: 2017/18
League: EPL
MAtches: All (380)
Market: OU 2.5 only
Reasoning: Lowest Odds is Market Prediction
Odd Source: best bookmaker (Don't have Betfair odds)
Over-round Adjustment: adjusted to 100% book
Prediction Count: Yes=216 (57%) No=164 (43%)

But I totally agree with Kafkaesque it's not if correct but how correct and for that you have to include the actual odds.
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Euler
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

Generally, the market is pretty accurate overall but that includes big errors on both sides. Once the match is underway it starts to adjust according to the action on the pitch.
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firlandsfarm
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Kafkaesque wrote:
Sun Apr 07, 2019 6:59 pm
Unless I'm missing something, even if you do get the answer to your question, as it stands, said answer would be of zero value.

No matter if the market is correct 5, 55, or 95 percent of the time on the OU 2.5, that doesn't mean anything without taking into account the distribution among the shortest price of the two selections.
To demonstrate Kafkaesque's point. If you had placed a best bookie bet (so no commission) on the 'predicted' outcome of each of the matches analysed in my previous post you would have made a loss of 14.84 points. It's not if you win but how much you win.
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