Africa Cup Of Nations 2019

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northbound
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Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Tournament starts 21st of June in Egypt.

Most matches will be played in hot conditions, with temperatures of 30C+ and 40%+ humidity.

Group stage is made of 6 groups of 4 teams, meaning even finishing 3rd gives you a 66% chance of advancing to the Knockout Stage.

I remember Euro 2016, with a similar formula that meant the Group Stage was a pretty dull affair, with 25 matches out of 36 being under 2.5 goals and teams taking it easy.

It means that 69.4% of matches finished with less than 3 goals, meaning fair average odds would have been 1.44.

Heat combined with relative ease of advancing to next round: this makes me suggest to blindly back Under 2.5 goals on every single Group Stage match of this Africa Cup Of Nations.

You can currently get odds of 1.55+ on Under 2.5 Goals for 11 out of 12 first round of matches (there will be 36 in total in the Group Stage).

Good luck.
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Kai
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Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Not sure there's enough interest in AFCON to warrant a separate thread. Was looking forward to it but judging by the liquidity for tomorrow's opener it may not be that great.
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northbound
Posts: 737
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You’re probably right about the separate thread, but I wanted to have a place to track this specific betting angle and perhaps discussing it with other.
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northbound
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A quick update on this strategy idea of backing Under 2.5 Goals (U25) in every single Group Stage match.

So far:
- 12 out of 36 matches have been played.
- 9 out of 12 ended U25.
- Blindly backing U25 on every match with £1 returned a profit of £3.23.
- Expected Value of £0.27 per match.

For the sake of simplicity, the odds were fetched from Bet365 for all matches on the first day of the tournament.

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Screenshot 2019-06-25 at 23.01.48.png
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sa7med
Posts: 800
Joined: Thu May 18, 2017 8:01 am

northbound wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 10:09 pm
A quick update on this strategy idea of backing Under 2.5 Goals (U25) in every single Group Stage match.

So far:
- 12 out of 36 matches have been played.
- 9 out of 12 ended U25.
- Blindly backing U25 on every match with £1 returned a profit of £3.23.
- Expected Value of £0.27 per match.

For the sake of simplicity, the odds were fetched from Bet365 for all matches on the first day of the tournament.

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Screenshot 2019-06-25 at 23.01.48.png
Pretty darn good. I wonder, have you looked at an historical info? Keep us updated NB :)
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northbound
Posts: 737
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

No historical info. It was just a hunch based on the ease of advancing to the Knockout Stage (reminiscent of Euro 2016) AND the hot weather conditions.

On the other hand, the current Copa America has a similar format where even finishing 3rd gives you a 66% of advancing. The Under/Over distribution there has been 50-50 in the Group Stage, so probably this strategy would have failed there.
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northbound
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The second round of Group Stage games confirmed the same U25 Goals trend, with 11 out of 12 games having less than 3 goals.

Funny story: yesterday morning, looking at these stats and the Correct Scores, I was amazed to see that in spite of so many U25 results, there had not been a single 0-0. So I toyed with the idea of placing a mug acca on yesterday's three games to end exactly 0-0. It would have paid 200/1+. I didn't place it and of course all three games ended 0-0...

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Kai
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Absolutely horrific games, not much to do other than scalp but the prices are terrible as well. Would be very interested in seeing the % of ball out of play, seems like some matches have a ridiculous amount of fouls and set pieces etc.

EDIT: Whoops was talking about Copa America, haven't fully woken up yet :mrgreen:
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northbound
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Kai wrote:
Sun Jun 30, 2019 11:18 am
Would be very interested in seeing the % of ball out of play
I don't have that figure, but here are some generic stats for Group Stage games in the this year's AFCON and COPA AMERICA.

Score
[Shots On Target]
{Dangerous Attacks}

Code: Select all

AFCON 2019 - GROUP STAGE (SO FAR)
21 Jun / Egypt v Zimbabwe           1-0   [8-2]   {47-35}
22 Jun / Congo DR v Uganda          0-2   [2-5]   {38-25}
22 Jun / Nigeria v Burundi          1-0   [3-5]   {57-38}
22 Jun / Guinea v Madagascar        2-2   [3-3]   {40-22}
23 Jun / Morocco v Namibia          1-0   [6-0]   {82-20}
23 Jun / Senegal v Tanzania         2-0   [9-0]   {61-26}
23 Jun / Algeria v Kenya            2-0   [4-0]   {39-26}
24 Jun / Ivory Coast v South Africa 1-0   [3-0]   {46-32}
24 Jun / Tunisia v Angola           1-1   [2-2]   {34-48}
24 Jun / Mali v Mauritania          4-1   [9-2]   {34-39}
25 Jun / Cameroon v Guinea-Bissau   2-0   [5-0]   {66-29}
25 Jun / Ghana v Benin              2-2   [3-4]   {33-31}
26 Jun / Nigeria v Guinea           1-0   [4-0]   {50-40}
26 Jun / Uganda v Zimbabwe          1-1   [1-3]   {33-31}
26 Jun / Egypt v Congo DR           2-0   [3-3]   {26-55}
27 Jun / Madagascar v Burundi       1-0   [4-2]   {38-49}
27 Jun / Senegal v Algeria          0-1   [2-2]   {49-30}
27 Jun / Kenya v Tanzania           3-2   [9-4]   {37-23}
28 Jun / Tunisia v Mali             1-1   [2-3]   {27-29}
28 Jun / Morocco v Ivory Coast      1-0   [4-2]   {44-38}
28 Jun / South Africa v Namibia     1-0   [7-0]   {56-37}
29 Jun / Mauritania v Angola        0-0   [0-1]   {32-33}
29 Jun / Cameroon v Ghana           0-0   [2-2]   {42-23}
29 Jun / Benin v Guinea-Bissau      0-0   [0-1]   {48-19}

Code: Select all

COPA AMERICA 2019 - GROUP STAGE (ALL GAMES EXCEPT TWO)
15 Jun / Brazil v Bolivia     3-0   [5-1]   {84-16}
15 Jun / Venezuela v Peru     0-0   [5-7]   {33-33}
15 Jun / Argentina v Colombia 0-2   [6-2]   {45-41}
17 Jun / Japan v Chile        0-4   [0-5]   {39-52}
18 Jun / Bolivia v Peru       1-3   [2-10]  {22-57}
19 Jun / Brazil v Venezuela   0-0   [4-2]   {76-23}
19 Jun / Colombia v Qatar     1-0   [6-3]   {93-15}
20 Jun / Argentina v Paraguay 1-1   [3-2]   {49-16}
20 Jun / Uruguay v Japan      2-2   [10-4]  {58-34}
21 Jun / Ecuador v Chile      1-2   [2-3]   {39-33}
22 Jun / Peru v Brazil        0-5   [1-9]   {22-55}
22 Jun / Bolivia v Venezuela  1-3   [3-5]   {20-43}
23 Jun / Colombia v Paraguay  1-0   [6-2]   {46-30}
23 Jun / Qatar v Argentina    0-2   [2-7]   {25-59}
24 Jun / Chile v Uruguay      0-1   [3-2]   {38-52}
24 Jun / Ecuador v Japan      1-1   [2-8]   {56-27}
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northbound
Posts: 737
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Group Stage ended today, the strategy of straight backing Under 2.5 Goals in every single match was a success.

36 games
£1 bet per game (notional)
£7.35 overall profit
20% expected value

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Screenshot 2019-07-02 at 23.02.46.png
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