hello everyone
as the title says,this thread is about finding the best Poisson distribution calculator for football matches
there re a few quite simple to use,all the need is just to fill the expected goals for the home and away teams
and the software calculates the possibilities
is there a better one with more details needed,like elo ratings,rank possition,home importance etc?
this one looks interesting but personaly i do not know how to use it
https://annabet.com/en/poissoned/
What is the best Poisson distribution calculator on line?
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If your using it for football don't it underestimates the draw.
I agree, it's a long way from finding value, but a useful exercise.footysystems wrote: ↑Mon Jul 15, 2019 5:00 pmIf your using it for football don't it underestimates the draw.
footysystems wrote: ↑Mon Jul 15, 2019 5:00 pmIf your using it for football don't it underestimates the draw.
hello my friends
thank you for the respond
in which one you re referring?
the thread is about finding specific calculator not discuss its use
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With a simple poisson distribution the parameters you're using are the expected goals for each team nothing more.
None of the online calculators will be using anything else, the poisson formulas are easily available in excel to calculate individual outcomes, from there you simply aggregate the various win scores/ aways scores and draw scores to get your rough prediction of a likely win or score etc. Like other's have pointed out it understimates draw and has many flaws in that you're simply using previous data and not taking into account team selections etc.
Give it a shot calculating your own probablities by all means but you'll be up against people who have put in a lot more effort than using an online form. I'll have a search see if I still havr an excel calculator sheet.
None of the online calculators will be using anything else, the poisson formulas are easily available in excel to calculate individual outcomes, from there you simply aggregate the various win scores/ aways scores and draw scores to get your rough prediction of a likely win or score etc. Like other's have pointed out it understimates draw and has many flaws in that you're simply using previous data and not taking into account team selections etc.
Give it a shot calculating your own probablities by all means but you'll be up against people who have put in a lot more effort than using an online form. I'll have a search see if I still havr an excel calculator sheet.
personally i bet only for overs or btts and over so draws is not an issue for mespreadbetting wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:43 pmLike other's have pointed out it understimates draw and has many flaws in that you're simply using previous data and not taking into account team selections etc.
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If your calculations underestimate the draw it means it will overestimate the wins.nivi7 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:53 pmpersonally i bet only for overs or btts and over so draws is not an issue for mespreadbetting wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:43 pmLike other's have pointed out it understimates draw and has many flaws in that you're simply using previous data and not taking into account team selections etc.
Your best bet is to simply set up the poisson distribution in excel and start working out your own total goals and supremacy figures then comparing those to the industry odds or the spread firms supremacy/goals markets. From there you'd concentrate on the ones that are out of line wth the bookies and try to figure out if there's a reason why you disgree with the bookmaker's prices.
the question is how can i engage more parameters than expected goals on the poisson calculatorspreadbetting wrote: ↑Tue Jul 16, 2019 6:20 pm
Your best bet is to simply set up the poisson distribution in excel and start working out your own total goals and supremacy figures
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What others parameters? Your poisson distribution is calculated from the expected goals and no other data. Any other parameters , like team selection etc would be used to calculate your initial expected goals not go into a poisson calculator. You might tweak the distribution probabilities after calculating to take into account known errors with poisson and football.
There are plenty of academic papers regarding poisson and football scores using univariate or bivariate distributions. You should read a few of those as they've put in the hard work for you and all available from Google searches.
There are plenty of academic papers regarding poisson and football scores using univariate or bivariate distributions. You should read a few of those as they've put in the hard work for you and all available from Google searches.
spreadbetting wrote: ↑Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:02 amWhat others parameters? Your poisson distribution is calculated from the expected goals and no other data.
my bad