What is the best Poisson distribution calculator on line?

[nivi7]

hello everyone

as the title says,this thread is about finding the best Poisson distribution calculator for football matches

there re a few quite simple to use,all the need is just to fill the expected goals for the home and away teams
and the software calculates the possibilities

is there a better one with more details needed,like elo ratings,rank possition,home importance etc?


this one looks interesting but personaly i do not know how to use it

https://annabet.com/en/poissoned/

[Euler]

Create your own in Excel I suggest.

[nivi7]

Create your own in Excel I suggest.

have you created one for yourself?
what parameters did you use?

[footysystems]

If your using it for football don't it underestimates the draw.

[Euler]

If your using it for football don't it underestimates the draw.

I agree, it's a long way from finding value, but a useful exercise.

[nivi7]

If your using it for football don't it underestimates the draw.

hello my friends
thank you for the respond

in which one you re referring?

the thread is about finding specific calculator not discuss its use

[nivi7]

I agree, it's a long way from finding value, but a useful exercise.

have you created one for yourself?
what parameters did you use?

[spreadbetting]

With a simple poisson distribution the parameters you're using are the expected goals for each team nothing more.

None of the online calculators will be using anything else, the poisson formulas are easily available in excel to calculate individual outcomes, from there you simply aggregate the various win scores/ aways scores and draw scores to get your rough prediction of a likely win or score etc. Like other's have pointed out it understimates draw and has many flaws in that you're simply using previous data and not taking into account team selections etc.

Give it a shot calculating your own probablities by all means but you'll be up against people who have put in a lot more effort than using an online form. I'll have a search see if I still havr an excel calculator sheet.

[nivi7]

Like other's have pointed out it understimates draw and has many flaws in that you're simply using previous data and not taking into account team selections etc.

personally i bet only for overs or btts and over so draws is not an issue for me

[spreadbetting]

Like other's have pointed out it understimates draw and has many flaws in that you're simply using previous data and not taking into account team selections etc.

personally i bet only for overs or btts and over so draws is not an issue for me

If your calculations underestimate the draw it means it will overestimate the wins.

Your best bet is to simply set up the poisson distribution in excel and start working out your own total goals and supremacy figures then comparing those to the industry odds or the spread firms supremacy/goals markets. From there you'd concentrate on the ones that are out of line wth the bookies and try to figure out if there's a reason why you disgree with the bookmaker's prices.

[nivi7]

Your best bet is to simply set up the poisson distribution in excel and start working out your own total goals and supremacy figures

the question is how can i engage more parameters than expected goals on the poisson calculator

[spreadbetting]

What others parameters? Your poisson distribution is calculated from the expected goals and no other data. Any other parameters , like team selection etc would be used to calculate your initial expected goals not go into a poisson calculator. You might tweak the distribution probabilities after calculating to take into account known errors with poisson and football.

There are plenty of academic papers regarding poisson and football scores using univariate or bivariate distributions. You should read a few of those as they've put in the hard work for you and all available from Google searches.

[nivi7]

What others parameters? Your poisson distribution is calculated from the expected goals and no other data.

my bad