Trading Friendlies?

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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Speculator_3
Posts: 61
Joined: Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:01 pm

Has anyone here employed their usual trading repetitive strategies on friendly games? What were the results?

When the friendly season first began a month or so ago, I was at first cautious and wanted to abstain from trading these matches. But then I threw caution to the wind and employed my usual trading strategy anyway. These matches are so unpredictable that they seem to contribute to both my losses and profits in equal measure. Especially since I am trading the vast majority of matches without seeing the live video.

So what's everyone consensus on these? Stay away or not?
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Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Not worth it in my opinion.

The issue with friendlies is that there is no real incentive to score goals and to get results (and that's kinda the main thing for me), the only real incentive is to get fitness and sharpness. They can produce weird results because star players who are often involved in international summer competitions will most likely miss out on a good chunk of those friendlies so the lineups will be a mixed bag of youth and experience. The matches can be very random and hard to read what's going on since top players can be completely out of shape and be completely outperformed by unknown talented youngsters that have something to prove.

The second issue with friendlies is that they aren't really liquid enough compared to normal games, even for top teams. International Champions Cup and similar competitions are slightly more competitive and the liquidity is a bit higher but those are still friendly games.

And the last issue with friendlies is the seasonality, they are mostly being played over the summer period so even if you were a god tier friendlies trader you can't do much anyway and can't scale up anyway, it's just not worth it in my opinion. Even in a gap year like this (without World Cup and Euro) there are enough football tournaments going around as you've already seen this summer, and the next season is just around the corner anyway.
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Kafkaesque
Posts: 886
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

Inplay should be fine. In fact I find the vast number of subs helpful (so long as they don't come in bulk at HT), since it gives plenty of breaks to enter and exit with the ball not in play, and less often good spots for value as the dynamic changes due sides being weakened or strengthened through subs.

One things for sure, you don't want to take your hand off the wheel pre around the time line-ups are announced :)
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Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Kafkaesque wrote:
Fri Jul 19, 2019 2:13 pm
One things for sure, you don't want to take your hand off the wheel pre around the time line-ups are announced :)
That's a great rule for prematch in general. I may or may not have been caught with my pants down once or thrice by teamnews :D Quite literally, I really had to go at the wrong time. Big yikes.
nivi7
Posts: 163
Joined: Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:53 pm

well i just bet on Liverpool against Dortmund to score o1,5 on FH
odds re 5,85

let see
nivi7
Posts: 163
Joined: Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:53 pm

nivi7 wrote:
Sat Jul 20, 2019 1:13 am
well i just bet on Liverpool against Dortmund to score o1,5 on FH
odds re 5,85

let see
for the record i lost this bet
thy score only 1 goal
george
Posts: 137
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 4:07 pm

talking about friendly games today Ajax playing 2 games in a day i found that weird havent seen that before ,
both of them are with Greek teams one of them is right now Ajax vs OFI which looks like an easy win for Ajax and the sexond one
is Ajax vs Panathinaikos not so easy win if u ask me but the odds are way too short for ajax but been friendly games its so unpredictable most of the times
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