Football ratings

[Tomm]

Thanks Peter, I've had a go recently at forming expectations of the expected number of goals in a game with similar figures to yours, which I would class as a success! Do you factor possession at all in your calculations?

Side point, how do you form an expectation for games where the teams play in different leagues? Do you have a general attack/defence rating that you apply to each league?

[Euler]

I don't look at possession at all. Across leagues is tough, you have to insert a differential between leagues based purely on history, but then a top team may play a weaker side.

I ended up going to player level to derive a lot of ratings to solve these problems.

[minipeg]

any ratings for today peter cheers paul

[Tomm]

If anyone's interested, I've created my own expectations for today's premier league matches, most likely not as accurate as Peter's!

Bournemouth (1.648) Leicester (1.155)
Man United (2.27) Crystal Palace (0.81)
Stoke (1.144) Southampton (1.559)
West Brom (1.3) Watford (1.192)
West Ham (1.698) Swansea (0.922)
Chelsea (1.208) Man City (1.309)

[minipeg]

are these goal outcomes

[Euler]

Sorry, I couldn't get these out in time, just too much going on this morning and I was working overnight on the aussie stuff so needed some sleep.

[ShaunWhite]

If anyone's interested, I've created my own expectations for today's premier league matches, most likely not as accurate as Peter's!

Bournemouth (1.648) Leicester (1.155)
Man United (2.27) Crystal Palace (0.81)
Stoke (1.144) Southampton (1.559)
West Brom (1.3) Watford (1.192)
West Ham (1.698) Swansea (0.922)
Chelsea (1.208) Man City (1.309)

You seem pretty confident in your accuracy with predictions to within a 1000th of a goal.

[Tomm]

If anyone's interested, I've created my own expectations for today's premier league matches, most likely not as accurate as Peter's!

Bournemouth (1.648) Leicester (1.155)
Man United (2.27) Crystal Palace (0.81)
Stoke (1.144) Southampton (1.559)
West Brom (1.3) Watford (1.192)
West Ham (1.698) Swansea (0.922)
Chelsea (1.208) Man City (1.309)

You seem pretty confident in your accuracy with predictions to within a 1000th of a goal.

Confidence is key

[herbie]

3.56 : Home 3.07 Away 0.49 - Napoli vs. Feyenoord
3.53 : Home 2.95 Away 0.58 - Man City vs. Shakhtar
3.39 : Home 1.59 Away 1.80 - Dortmund vs. Real Madrid
3.36 : Home 2.95 Away 0.41 - Sevilla vs. NK Maribor
3.10 : Home 2.39 Away 0.70 - Wigan vs. Plymouth
2.96 : Home 0.92 Away 2.04 - Spartak Moscow vs. Liverpool
2.89 : Home 1.22 Away 1.67 - Oldham vs. Peterborough
2.87 : Home 1.31 Away 1.56 - Nottm Forest vs. Fulham
2.85 : Home 1.54 Away 1.31 - Brentford vs. Derby
2.76 : Home 1.57 Away 1.19 - Monaco vs. Porto
2.72 : Home 1.95 Away 0.77 - Bristol City vs. Bolton
2.65 : Home 1.22 Away 1.43 - Besiktas vs. RB Leipzig
2.60 : Home 0.66 Away 1.94 - APOEL vs. Tottenham
2.49 : Home 1.43 Away 1.06 - Cardiff vs. Leeds
2.48 : Home 1.35 Away 1.14 - Hull vs. Preston
2.47 : Home 1.50 Away 0.96 - Middlesbrough vs. Norwich
2.40 : Home 1.39 Away 1.01 - Millwall vs. Reading
2.39 : Home 0.92 Away 1.47 - Burton vs. Aston Villa
2.35 : Home 1.24 Away 1.10 - Ipswich vs. Sunderland

Trying an experimental layout for you to give more info.

Now its really interesting. Thank you

[Euler]

3.72 : Home 0.49 Away 3.23 - Dijon vs. Paris St-G
3.57 : Home 3.18 Away 0.39 - Celtic vs. Dundee
3.52 : Home 3.03 Away 0.49 - Man City vs. Stoke
3.31 : Home 0.80 Away 2.51 - Getafe vs. Real Madrid
3.17 : Home 2.83 Away 0.34 - Bayern Munich vs. Freiburg
2.89 : Home 1.01 Away 1.88 - Watford vs. Arsenal
2.79 : Home 1.59 Away 1.20 - Parma vs. Pescara
2.77 : Home 1.73 Away 1.04 - Hoffenheim vs. Augsburg
2.73 : Home 1.83 Away 0.90 - Juventus vs. Lazio
2.72 : Home 1.62 Away 1.10 - Fulham vs. Preston
2.70 : Home 1.72 Away 0.99 - Sheff Utd vs. Ipswich
2.69 : Home 2.10 Away 0.59 - Tottenham vs. Bournemouth
2.64 : Home 0.74 Away 1.90 - C Palace vs. Chelsea
2.58 : Home 1.17 Away 1.40 - Hamilton vs. Motherwell
2.58 : Home 1.23 Away 1.35 - Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona
2.57 : Home 1.12 Away 1.45 - Alaves vs. Sociedad
2.42 : Home 1.53 Away 0.89 - Leeds vs. Reading
2.39 : Home 1.36 Away 1.04 - Clermont vs. Le Havre
2.36 : Home 1.32 Away 1.04 - FK Krasnodar vs. CSKA Moscow
2.34 : Home 0.91 Away 1.43 - Bolton vs. Sheff Wed
2.30 : Home 1.12 Away 1.18 - Burnley vs. West Ham
2.27 : Home 1.15 Away 1.12 - Hertha Berlin vs. Schalke
2.20 : Home 1.33 Away 0.86 - Swansea vs. Huddersfield

[chakarabet]

Hi Peter,

Any new ratings for this weekend?
I am going to try them out on the under 2.5 market.

Happy i found this thread.

cheers

[Euler]

3.09 : Home 1.49 Away 1.60 - Mgladbach vs. Leverkusen
3.08 : Home 2.14 Away 0.94 - Napoli vs. Inter
3.02 : Home 2.27 Away 0.74 - Chelsea vs. Watford
2.92 : Home 1.64 Away 1.27 - Valencia vs. Sevilla
2.92 : Home 2.06 Away 0.86 - RB Leipzig vs. Stuttgart
2.84 : Home 1.12 Away 1.72 - Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Dortmund
2.84 : Home 1.39 Away 1.45 - Barnsley vs. Hull
2.71 : Home 0.89 Away 1.81 - Crawley Town vs. Luton
2.87 : Home 2.52 Away 0.35 - Man City vs. Burnley
2.65 : Home 1.43 Away 1.23 - Aston Villa vs. Fulham
2.64 : Home 1.72 Away 0.92 - Nottm Forest vs. Burton
2.58 : Home 1.47 Away 1.11 - Stoke vs. Bournemouth
2.52 : Home 0.60 Away 1.92 - Huddersfield vs. Man Utd
2.50 : Home 1.50 Away 1.00 - Augsburg vs. Hannover
2.46 : Home 1.53 Away 0.93 - Newcastle vs. C Palace
2.36 : Home 1.18 Away 1.17 - Swansea vs. Leicester
2.36 : Home 0.75 Away 1.61 - Amiens vs. Bordeaux
2.37 : Home 1.36 Away 1.01 - Bristol City vs. Leeds
2.30 : Home 1.42 Away 0.88 - Sheff Utd vs. Reading
2.27 : Home 1.29 Away 0.98 - Middlesbrough vs. Cardiff
2.20 : Home 1.13 Away 1.07 - Spezia vs. Perugia
2.21 : Home 1.28 Away 0.93 - Numancia vs. Granada
2.17 : Home 1.40 Away 0.78 - Southampton vs. West Brom

[jacks6666]

Can I ask what is significant, if anything, about the actual selections of the Football Ratings given to us?

Most of the Premier League and Bundesliga fixtures were included in the ratings list last Saturday (21st Oct), but those aside, there were only the odd selections from Italy, France, Spain, the English Championship, one from the English League two, one from Serie B and one from LaLiga 2.

I suppose what I am asking is, why were these fixtures included at the expense of others?

[Euler]

Liquidity, when I do the analysis I can only participate on really liquid markets so the cut off is liquidity. Sometimes if they clash with other events they may not make the list.

[jacks6666]

Hi Peter,

Many thanks for your prompt reply to my footy ratings question.

Much appreciated.