Wow.
Thanks Peter.
Really like these new style ratings.
Football ratings
3.29 : Home 2.92 Away 0.37 - Juventus vs. Olympiakos
3.08 : Home 1.81 Away 1.27 - Paris St-G vs. Bayern Munich
3.03 : Home 0.83 Away 2.20 - Sporting Lisbon vs. Barcelona
2.69 : Home 1.37 Away 1.33 - Anderlecht vs. Celtic
2.51 : Home 1.08 Away 1.43 - FC Basel vs. Benfica
2.35 : Home 1.13 Away 1.23 - Birmingham vs. Sheff Wed
2.33 : Home 1.09 Away 1.24 - Sheff Utd vs. Wolves
2.23 : Home 0.76 Away 1.47 - CSKA Moscow vs. Man Utd
2.15 : Home 1.27 Away 0.88 - Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea
3.08 : Home 1.81 Away 1.27 - Paris St-G vs. Bayern Munich
3.03 : Home 0.83 Away 2.20 - Sporting Lisbon vs. Barcelona
2.69 : Home 1.37 Away 1.33 - Anderlecht vs. Celtic
2.51 : Home 1.08 Away 1.43 - FC Basel vs. Benfica
2.35 : Home 1.13 Away 1.23 - Birmingham vs. Sheff Wed
2.33 : Home 1.09 Away 1.24 - Sheff Utd vs. Wolves
2.23 : Home 0.76 Away 1.47 - CSKA Moscow vs. Man Utd
2.15 : Home 1.27 Away 0.88 - Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea
Found a video you may like: -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xog-QZvFWcA
Thanks Peter, I've had a go recently at forming expectations of the expected number of goals in a game with similar figures to yours, which I would class as a success! Do you factor possession at all in your calculations?Euler wrote: ↑Thu Sep 28, 2017 2:35 pmFound a video you may like: -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xog-QZvFWcA
Side point, how do you form an expectation for games where the teams play in different leagues? Do you have a general attack/defence rating that you apply to each league?
I don't look at possession at all. Across leagues is tough, you have to insert a differential between leagues based purely on history, but then a top team may play a weaker side.
I ended up going to player level to derive a lot of ratings to solve these problems.
I ended up going to player level to derive a lot of ratings to solve these problems.
If anyone's interested, I've created my own expectations for today's premier league matches, most likely not as accurate as Peter's!
Bournemouth (1.648) Leicester (1.155)
Man United (2.27) Crystal Palace (0.81)
Stoke (1.144) Southampton (1.559)
West Brom (1.3) Watford (1.192)
West Ham (1.698) Swansea (0.922)
Chelsea (1.208) Man City (1.309)
Bournemouth (1.648) Leicester (1.155)
Man United (2.27) Crystal Palace (0.81)
Stoke (1.144) Southampton (1.559)
West Brom (1.3) Watford (1.192)
West Ham (1.698) Swansea (0.922)
Chelsea (1.208) Man City (1.309)
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
You seem pretty confident in your accuracy with predictions to within a 1000th of a goal.Tomm wrote: ↑Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:12 pmIf anyone's interested, I've created my own expectations for today's premier league matches, most likely not as accurate as Peter's!
Bournemouth (1.648) Leicester (1.155)
Man United (2.27) Crystal Palace (0.81)
Stoke (1.144) Southampton (1.559)
West Brom (1.3) Watford (1.192)
West Ham (1.698) Swansea (0.922)
Chelsea (1.208) Man City (1.309)
Confidence is keyShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:08 pmYou seem pretty confident in your accuracy with predictions to within a 1000th of a goal.Tomm wrote: ↑Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:12 pmIf anyone's interested, I've created my own expectations for today's premier league matches, most likely not as accurate as Peter's!
Bournemouth (1.648) Leicester (1.155)
Man United (2.27) Crystal Palace (0.81)
Stoke (1.144) Southampton (1.559)
West Brom (1.3) Watford (1.192)
West Ham (1.698) Swansea (0.922)
Chelsea (1.208) Man City (1.309)
Now its really interesting. Thank youEuler wrote: ↑Tue Sep 26, 2017 6:34 pm3.56 : Home 3.07 Away 0.49 - Napoli vs. Feyenoord
3.53 : Home 2.95 Away 0.58 - Man City vs. Shakhtar
3.39 : Home 1.59 Away 1.80 - Dortmund vs. Real Madrid
3.36 : Home 2.95 Away 0.41 - Sevilla vs. NK Maribor
3.10 : Home 2.39 Away 0.70 - Wigan vs. Plymouth
2.96 : Home 0.92 Away 2.04 - Spartak Moscow vs. Liverpool
2.89 : Home 1.22 Away 1.67 - Oldham vs. Peterborough
2.87 : Home 1.31 Away 1.56 - Nottm Forest vs. Fulham
2.85 : Home 1.54 Away 1.31 - Brentford vs. Derby
2.76 : Home 1.57 Away 1.19 - Monaco vs. Porto
2.72 : Home 1.95 Away 0.77 - Bristol City vs. Bolton
2.65 : Home 1.22 Away 1.43 - Besiktas vs. RB Leipzig
2.60 : Home 0.66 Away 1.94 - APOEL vs. Tottenham
2.49 : Home 1.43 Away 1.06 - Cardiff vs. Leeds
2.48 : Home 1.35 Away 1.14 - Hull vs. Preston
2.47 : Home 1.50 Away 0.96 - Middlesbrough vs. Norwich
2.40 : Home 1.39 Away 1.01 - Millwall vs. Reading
2.39 : Home 0.92 Away 1.47 - Burton vs. Aston Villa
2.35 : Home 1.24 Away 1.10 - Ipswich vs. Sunderland
Trying an experimental layout for you to give more info.
3.72 : Home 0.49 Away 3.23 - Dijon vs. Paris St-G
3.57 : Home 3.18 Away 0.39 - Celtic vs. Dundee
3.52 : Home 3.03 Away 0.49 - Man City vs. Stoke
3.31 : Home 0.80 Away 2.51 - Getafe vs. Real Madrid
3.17 : Home 2.83 Away 0.34 - Bayern Munich vs. Freiburg
2.89 : Home 1.01 Away 1.88 - Watford vs. Arsenal
2.79 : Home 1.59 Away 1.20 - Parma vs. Pescara
2.77 : Home 1.73 Away 1.04 - Hoffenheim vs. Augsburg
2.73 : Home 1.83 Away 0.90 - Juventus vs. Lazio
2.72 : Home 1.62 Away 1.10 - Fulham vs. Preston
2.70 : Home 1.72 Away 0.99 - Sheff Utd vs. Ipswich
2.69 : Home 2.10 Away 0.59 - Tottenham vs. Bournemouth
2.64 : Home 0.74 Away 1.90 - C Palace vs. Chelsea
2.58 : Home 1.17 Away 1.40 - Hamilton vs. Motherwell
2.58 : Home 1.23 Away 1.35 - Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona
2.57 : Home 1.12 Away 1.45 - Alaves vs. Sociedad
2.42 : Home 1.53 Away 0.89 - Leeds vs. Reading
2.39 : Home 1.36 Away 1.04 - Clermont vs. Le Havre
2.36 : Home 1.32 Away 1.04 - FK Krasnodar vs. CSKA Moscow
2.34 : Home 0.91 Away 1.43 - Bolton vs. Sheff Wed
2.30 : Home 1.12 Away 1.18 - Burnley vs. West Ham
2.27 : Home 1.15 Away 1.12 - Hertha Berlin vs. Schalke
2.20 : Home 1.33 Away 0.86 - Swansea vs. Huddersfield
3.57 : Home 3.18 Away 0.39 - Celtic vs. Dundee
3.52 : Home 3.03 Away 0.49 - Man City vs. Stoke
3.31 : Home 0.80 Away 2.51 - Getafe vs. Real Madrid
3.17 : Home 2.83 Away 0.34 - Bayern Munich vs. Freiburg
2.89 : Home 1.01 Away 1.88 - Watford vs. Arsenal
2.79 : Home 1.59 Away 1.20 - Parma vs. Pescara
2.77 : Home 1.73 Away 1.04 - Hoffenheim vs. Augsburg
2.73 : Home 1.83 Away 0.90 - Juventus vs. Lazio
2.72 : Home 1.62 Away 1.10 - Fulham vs. Preston
2.70 : Home 1.72 Away 0.99 - Sheff Utd vs. Ipswich
2.69 : Home 2.10 Away 0.59 - Tottenham vs. Bournemouth
2.64 : Home 0.74 Away 1.90 - C Palace vs. Chelsea
2.58 : Home 1.17 Away 1.40 - Hamilton vs. Motherwell
2.58 : Home 1.23 Away 1.35 - Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona
2.57 : Home 1.12 Away 1.45 - Alaves vs. Sociedad
2.42 : Home 1.53 Away 0.89 - Leeds vs. Reading
2.39 : Home 1.36 Away 1.04 - Clermont vs. Le Havre
2.36 : Home 1.32 Away 1.04 - FK Krasnodar vs. CSKA Moscow
2.34 : Home 0.91 Away 1.43 - Bolton vs. Sheff Wed
2.30 : Home 1.12 Away 1.18 - Burnley vs. West Ham
2.27 : Home 1.15 Away 1.12 - Hertha Berlin vs. Schalke
2.20 : Home 1.33 Away 0.86 - Swansea vs. Huddersfield