Trading the Tie-Break

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Copenhagen trader
Posts: 52
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2009 3:15 pm

Now when the grass season is under way: I often hear: "Don´t trade the tie break. Everything can happen."
I would like to ask the more experienced tennis traders if that really ought to be the case.
If we assume that there is little value before the tie-break starts (market prices adjusted to players individual probability to win the tiebreak), then the value could be found DURING the tie-break with massive price fluctuations when people overreact or try to get out?
KInd regards from Denmark
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Dallas
Posts: 22674
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

There is no right or wrong answer Its completely up to you and what suits your strategy best and maybe how the game itself is shaping up. As with most things if you think you can see an opportunity then you should go for it , yes the prices are far more volatile in a tie-break but value is found in volatility so the rewards can be great - but so to are the risks increased.

Personally i dont trade them much and all my rules have a condition that stops them at 5-5 but im quiet sure many will be just the opposite and look to trade the tie-break only and/or have special automation rules set up just for them.
eddie4
Posts: 7
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 10:07 pm

I tend to trade when there is little downside as the market has already factored in that the set is over. If it is 4-0 or 3-0 the tick loss wont be too great and if it goes to 4-2 for example you can move your red down the ladder by backing at high prices to give a risk free trade or let it run for a small loss. My 2p worth. I always try to look at the downside and upside and know exactly where the price will be so stake accordingly.
Copenhagen trader
Posts: 52
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2009 3:15 pm

Thanks for the reply.
:mrgreen:
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