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Dallas
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Balmus wrote:
Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:35 pm
Trading96 wrote:
Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:10 am
Lots of big bets going in on the Wozniacki match (pre match), nothing like any of the other matches and it is still a long way off.
Seems very strange! over £1.5M matched pre match. Only thing I can find is about her diagnosis, i've linked the article below.

https://www.tennisworldusa.org/tennis/n ... diagnosis/
It seems a staggering amount of money for such a match
Trading96
Posts: 470
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:47 pm

Balmus wrote:
Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:35 pm
Trading96 wrote:
Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:10 am
Lots of big bets going in on the Wozniacki match (pre match), nothing like any of the other matches and it is still a long way off.
Seems very strange! over £1.5M matched pre match. Only thing I can find is about her diagnosis, i've linked the article below.

https://www.tennisworldusa.org/tennis/n ... diagnosis/
Yeah and Siegemund hasn't played that many tour level matches recently so uncertainty on both sides

Stats say Wozniacki should batter her fwiw, it's tempting to back her at the price, it doesn't really make sense because if you have only 66% chance of beating Siegemund on hard you would ordinarily be approx 3 figure price for the Aussie Open.

edit must have drifted in last couple of days just checked the price outright, was 25's last week. Makes a bit more sense.
Balmus
Posts: 158
Joined: Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:22 pm

Trading96 wrote:
Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:03 pm
Balmus wrote:
Tue Jan 01, 2019 5:35 pm
Trading96 wrote:
Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:10 am
Lots of big bets going in on the Wozniacki match (pre match), nothing like any of the other matches and it is still a long way off.
Seems very strange! over £1.5M matched pre match. Only thing I can find is about her diagnosis, i've linked the article below.

https://www.tennisworldusa.org/tennis/n ... diagnosis/
Yeah and Siegemund hasn't played that many tour level matches recently so uncertainty on both sides

Stats say Wozniacki should batter her fwiw, it's tempting to back her at the price, it doesn't really make sense because if you have only 66% chance of beating Siegemund on hard you would ordinarily be approx 3 figure price for the Aussie Open.

edit must have drifted in last couple of days just checked the price outright, was 25's last week. Makes a bit more sense.
FYI my model has Woz @ 1.23 / Sieg @ 5.35 so way off the market...
Balmus
Posts: 158
Joined: Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:22 pm

Pinnacle last traded price was 1.34, all very strange.
Balmus
Posts: 158
Joined: Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:22 pm

£1.55M matched on the Anderson v Djere match BEFORE the off. Anderson traded as low as 1.11 and as high as 1.57. :o
Balmus
Posts: 158
Joined: Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:22 pm

Anderson 1.36 SP, 1.19 on serve. Seems someone will take any price to be on. Image
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ec0n0mist
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Balmus wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:38 am
£1.55M matched on the Anderson v Djere match BEFORE the off. Anderson traded as low as 1.11 and as high as 1.57. :o
ATP generally attracts more volume but still, that is quite a chunk! So much for a decline in volume in recent times :D

The Wozniacki v Siegemund match was strange as well. Considering the SP and money piled on pre-match, I can't say at any point I was THAT convinced with her performance despite the final 6-3,6-2 scoreline
Trading96
Posts: 470
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:47 pm

Think Kontaveit early season form has been overvalued by the market I make Tsurenko slight fav.
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northbound
Posts: 737
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

Trading96 wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:22 pm
Think Kontaveit early season form has been overvalued by the market I make Tsurenko slight fav.
Hope you’re wrong.

Market vibes pre-tournament were really good on both Kontaveit and De Minaur. I expect either of them to reach the semis.
Balmus
Posts: 158
Joined: Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:22 pm

Trading96 wrote:
Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:22 pm
Think Kontaveit early season form has been overvalued by the market I make Tsurenko slight fav.
I agree, I make Tsurenko 1.86 max.
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mcgoo
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Thanks for the 30% Caroline :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :ugeek:
markyfletcher27
Posts: 8
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2018 11:49 am

Berdych @1.56 v Cecchinato seems pretty appealing. Over £500k matched and a lot of big chunks forcing the price out which seems a little strange to me.
Balmus
Posts: 158
Joined: Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:22 pm

markyfletcher27 wrote:
Fri Jan 04, 2019 3:03 pm
Berdych @1.56 v Cecchinato seems pretty appealing. Over £500k matched and a lot of big chunks forcing the price out which seems a little strange to me.
I make him 1.41 :D
Balmus
Posts: 158
Joined: Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:22 pm

Looks like Djokovic is in trouble. RBA serving for the match. I think Novak is too short at 2.24 for the Australian open and have taken a small lay position on him.
Balmus
Posts: 158
Joined: Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:22 pm

I think the market is giving too much to RBA, I make this an even money match. Either way I expect it to trade well.
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