Open Golf 2016

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Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

£10 returns to the cut

Start to cut - Phil Mickelson - 44 to 3.75 - £107.33
Start to cut - Henrik Stenson - 30 to 4 - £65
Start to cut - Soren Kjeldsen - 260 to 14.5 - £169.31
Start to cut - Zach Johnson - 75 to 18.5 - £30.54
Start to cut - Rory McIlroy - 12.5 to 21 - £-4.05
Start to cut - Dustin Johnson - 9.4 to 23 - £-5.91
Start to cut - Sergio Garcia - 30 to 22 - £3.64
Start to cut - Keegan Bradley - 520 to 25 - £198
Start to cut - Charl Schwartzel - 65 to 34 - £9.12
Start to cut - Martin Kaymer - 48 to 55 - £-1.27
Start to cut - Matt Kuchar - 70 to 65 - £0.77
Start to cut - Rickie Fowler - 40 to 80 - £-5
Start to cut - Rafael Cabrera-Bello - 110 to 90 - £2.22
Start to cut - Tony Finau - 320 to 80 - £30
Start to cut - Bill Haas - 410 to 95 - £33.16
Start to cut - Andrew Johnston - 800 to 100 - £70
Start to cut - Patrick Reed - 75 to 110 - £-3.18
Start to cut - Jason Day - 10.5 to 110 - £-9.05
Start to cut - Adam Scott - 22 to 150 - £-8.53
Start to cut - Kevin Na - 410 to 160 - £15.63
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Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Billy Horshel missed the cut having shot a first round 67!
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Dublin_Flyer
Posts: 688
Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am

Question for ya Peter, are the prices taken at tee time or hours previous or does it vary?

Reason being a chap from work backed Stenson at 28/1 in PaddyPower or Boyles, I thought he would have been much higher on BF.
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Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

I capture them at or just before tee time. I was slightly late this year, but it looks like the price for Stenson is correct and hadn't move when captured.
shakespeare
Posts: 113
Joined: Sat May 21, 2016 1:43 pm

Is this list not misleading, since it suffers from Survivor's Bias? That is, it excludes all the players who didn't make the cut and therefore it conceals lots of £10 losses.
Grzemp
Posts: 8
Joined: Thu Nov 28, 2013 8:47 am

I believe this is a private bet list of Pete's choices he backed and layed for profit, not all players profit and loss list
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Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

shakespeare wrote:Is this list not misleading, since it suffers from Survivor's Bias? That is, it excludes all the players who didn't make the cut and therefore it conceals lots of £10 losses.
Only if you back every player, which would be illogical.

Imagine you backed 30 of them, then look at that list again.
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Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Also this doesn't include trading out on players at their low point, like Patrick Reed who traded at 15's
shakespeare
Posts: 113
Joined: Sat May 21, 2016 1:43 pm

Euler wrote:Only if you back every player, which would be illogical.

Imagine you backed 30 of them, then look at that list again.
You are a god. Obviously the hard part is knowing which 30 to back. :oops:

I wasn't expecting a personal reply. I thought on this forum the grownups like you talk about grownup things to each other while Dallas babysits the children (like me) and answers our tiresome questions. :lol:
Kev123in
Posts: 42
Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2016 1:13 pm

Managed to show a profit on the first 3 majors of the year using this strategy. Looking to do something more interesting with the profit now coming in to the weekend, perhaps lay the fav when entering the hard part of the course or even dutching the front of the field as suggested by Peter in one of his latest blogs.
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phillywilly72
Posts: 8
Joined: Mon Dec 01, 2014 10:59 pm

Great technique but the real skill is how to pick the 20 or 30 to back! Probably recent form is the most likely way unless euler is willing to elaborate ;)
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