US PGA Championship 2017

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northbound
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Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

It's the last major of the year and here are some pointers:

- Played at the Quail Hollow golf course
- This course hosted Wells Fargo Championship every year until 2016
- Since last year's Wells Fargo Championship, the course has been toughened up
- Par 5s are OK
- Par 4s are long and challenging
- Tough start: the course designer says that it's unlikely to see a player scoring many birdies on the first six holes
- Tough finish: the final three holes (16, 17, 18) are nicknamed "The Green Mile" and are quite challenging
- Rory McIlroy won twice here
Last edited by northbound on Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:03 am, edited 2 times in total.
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northbound
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The above should give you some ideas on how to formulate a trading strategy for this tournament.

Meanwhile, I've done some digging on historic Betfair data of the last two tournaments held at this course and these are my personal DOB suggestions for this tournament:

Anirban Lahiri (current odds 600.00)
Patrick Reed (160.00)
Kevin Chappell (75.00)
Phil Mickelson (80.00)
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Euler
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I'm curious why McIlroy is favourite?
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northbound
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Because he's won twice on this golf course already.

Here's Rory's recent record at the Wells Fargo Championship, which is always played on this golf course:

2012 - 2nd
2013 - 10th
2014 - 8th
2015 - 1st
2016 - 4th

Also, with many Par 4 holes being longer than 500yd, this course suits powerful drivers like him.
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Euler
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Betdaq are doing 0% commission on the US PGA: -

https://twitter.com/BETDAQ/status/895560816203898881
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Euler
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2017-08-10_12-02-01 - Paul Casey - Manipulation.png
On each Major this year there has been somebody sat on at least one player priced at 50, this time it was Paul Casey.
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gazuty
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Location: Green land :)

Euler wrote:
Thu Aug 10, 2017 12:25 pm
2017-08-10_12-02-01 - Paul Casey - Manipulation.png

On each Major this year there has been somebody sat on at least one player priced at 50, this time it was Paul Casey.
C + C music factory. Things that make you go hmmmm
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northbound
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Not surprised about Casey, as he had several Top 10 finishes on the PGA Tour this year.

Perhaps this trader goes in big on in-form players at decent odds, with a view to lay them lower in-play.

Last time Paul Casey played on this golf course, at Wells Fargo 2016, he went off at 55.00 on Betfair, and traded as low as 15.00 in-play.
steven1976
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What time does coverage in UK for PGA on sky start?
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Euler
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Massive drift on Spieth
Wildly
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Euler wrote:
Thu Aug 10, 2017 12:25 pm
2017-08-10_12-02-01 - Paul Casey - Manipulation.png

On each Major this year there has been somebody sat on at least one player priced at 50, this time it was Paul Casey.
That's just trading the transition point in the odds. Laying at 50 gives upside of 10% for each tick of drift and downside of 2% for each tick firmed.
Pre-off in golf majors would be among the few sporting events with with stable enough markets at that price.
Need deep pockets to use that strategy.
weemac
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Wildly wrote:
Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:44 am

That's just trading the transition point in the odds. Laying at 50 gives upside of 10% for each tick of drift and downside of 2% for each tick firmed.
Only if you can actually get out at 48, which clearly has not happened here, and would be impossible to assume you ever would at such large stakes. And why all on one player?

27 £231 £6,793
28 £586 £4,743
29 £2,414
30 £1,499
32 £884
34 £274
36 £136
38 £35
40 £22
42 £246
44 £111
46 £399
48 £4,055
50 £38,366
Bluesky
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Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:26 pm

steven1976 wrote:
Thu Aug 10, 2017 4:39 pm
What time does coverage in UK for PGA on sky start?
I couldn't find it on Sky yesterday. I think its only on BBC2 (the red button).
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Euler
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Day one positive movers

Hideki Matsuyama - 13.5 to 11 : £2.27
Dustin Johnson - 15.5 to 12.5 : £2.40
Rickie Fowler - 17 to 8.8 : £9.32
Brooks Koepka - 26 to 8.8 : £19.55
Jon Rahm - 29 to 20 : £4.50
Jason Day - 36 to 30 : £2.00
Paul Casey - 50 to 27 : £8.52
Matt Kuchar - 100 to 90 : £1.11
Tony Finau - 85 to 34 : £15.00
Tommy Fleetwood - 110 to 55 : £10.00
Kevin Kisner - 130 to 21 : £51.90
Patrick Reed - 150 to 44 : £24.09
Gary Woodland   - 150 to 34 : £34.12
Louis Oosthuizen - 200 to 70 : £18.57
Brian Harman - 270 to 80 : £23.75
Ryan Moore - 290 to 190 : £5.26
Byeong Hun An - 390 to 270 : £4.44
Thorbjorn Olesen - 350 to 38 : £82.11
Sean O'Hair - 380 to 270 : £4.07
Bud Cauley - 460 to 110 : £31.82
Sung Kang - 550 to 220 : £15.00
Pat Perez - 530 to 180 : £19.44
Grayson Murray - 570 to 90 : £53.33
Jordan Smith - 560 to 210 : £16.67
Graham Delaet - 660 to 200 : £23.00
Jim Herman - 990 to 250 : £29.60
D.A. Points - 1000 to 180 : £45.56
Hideto Tanihara - 1000 to 660 : £5.15
Satoshi Kodaira - 1000 to 810 : £2.35
Chris Stroud - 1000 to 170 : £48.82
redbasil
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:50 pm

Thanks for the update peter... if it's an answerable question do you Dutch or flat back your selections?
Also an answer to an earlier question the coverage is also on BBC iplayer, great to hear eccentric alliss again.
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