Winning Warlock be careful of wrong horse data

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ANGELS15
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I've been using Winning Warlock site for a while and generally find it an excellent resource and it's free too.
However I've noticed on a number of occasions that they link data to the wrong horse. On occasions when this happens it turns out to be a horse with the same name from previous years.

The latest example in the 9.00 Wolverhampton tonight a 1m 1/2 f maiden there is a horse listed there called 'Mutineer'. This race is a 3yo+ maiden race. I recall a horse called 'Mutineer' back in the mid 2000's. Anyway today's Winning Warlock formguide card lists Mutineer as having 2 wins to it's name. Now this is not impossible as winning NH horses can run in flat maidens. However due to the young age of the horse I thought I'd investigate further, lo and behold in the Winning Warlock formguide 'Mutineer' won a 3m chase in Ireland in 2008!

So yet again they have linked a horse with the the same name. As I say I still think it's a good site but you just need to be careful.
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Euler
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Depressing to see Wolverhampton on the card again!
chris2785
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HI, I have actually spoke to the guy that runs this site (on email) about another issue, he responds very quick and puts things right straightway if there is an error - that was my experiance anyway..
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ANGELS15
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Thanks Chris 2785 I may look into emailing him. Hopefully it's a simple fix.
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dlbanks2015
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Location: North Wales

Hi peeps,

Ok......So.... If anyone could possibly give me a little advice on this please??

I obviously understand that the bars at the end are the speed rating...back/lay prices, stars blah blah blah blah and all the rest of it....

What I'm a little unsure of is the percentages columns and what they're telling me...

Is it the amount they've drifted/come in on the given number of races? I can see that there are colours on some and not on others too.

I just need a clearer picture of what it's telling me if anyone can help please??

Thanks In Advance
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Dallas
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If you take Brian Power its telling you its traded at 50% below its BSP 91% of the time (10 runs out of 11)
and on more than half its runs has traded down as low as 10% of its BSP (90% shorter than its BSP)
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dlbanks2015
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Location: North Wales

Dallas,

You are a font of knowledge.
Thank you. Now that I know what I'm looking at I can trim down some of my selections via process of elimination to a little finer detail.

That's helped a lot.. CHEERS :D
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northbound
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I believe that Winning Warlock's percentages are misleading. To me, the percentage formula should be IPMIN / BSP * 100.

For example, if BSP=5.00 and IPMIN=2.50, percentage should be 2.50 / 5.00 * 100 = 50%.

A classic DOB.

Take a look at this:
http://www.winningwarlock.com/results-history/01/2018

The first horse in the list, Willoughby Court, has BSP=2.92 and IPMIN=2.30. Hence the percentage should be 2.30 / 2.92 * 100 = 78%.

However, the website gives you 68%, because it subtracts 1 from bot BSP and IPMIN: 1.30 / 1.92 = 68%.

This makes it look like the horse traded much lower inplay than it really did. So I believe it's misleading.

Am I missing something?
iambic_pentameter
Posts: 443
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm

When I first started looking at B2L's, Winning Warlock was my site of choice - bearing in mind though, at that point I hadn't given any consideration to any other factors and I didn't even know what the difference was between a hurdle and a chase!

There are, in my opinion, far better sites out there; the excellent Patternform and also TImeform being two obvious examples.

One of most important lessons I've been taught, is to try and look for reasons NOT to get involved with a B2L trade.

For example, just because a horses has traded 50% lower in 70% of it's previous runs, doesn't mean it will do so on it's next run. It's important to look at the bigger picture.

Iambic
phrenetic
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northbound wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:10 pm
I believe that Winning Warlock's percentages are misleading. To me, the percentage formula should be IPMIN / BSP * 100.

For example, if BSP=5.00 and IPMIN=2.50, percentage should be 2.50 / 5.00 * 100 = 50%.

A classic DOB.

Take a look at this:
http://www.winningwarlock.com/results-history/01/2018

The first horse in the list, Willoughby Court, has BSP=2.92 and IPMIN=2.30. Hence the percentage should be 2.30 / 2.92 * 100 = 78%.

However, the website gives you 68%, because it subtracts 1 from bot BSP and IPMIN: 1.30 / 1.92 = 68%.

This makes it look like the horse traded much lower inplay than it really did. So I believe it's misleading.

Am I missing something?
Whilst I can't speak about DOBbing per se, I would say that their % movement calculation is correct. If you have a horse at 4/1 then half its price would be 2/1 - turn that into decimal odds and you are talking 5.0 and 3.0 (not 5.0 and 2.5).

Or take the absolute extreme - what is half the price of odds of 1.02 ?
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northbound
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phrenetic wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:34 pm
Whilst I can't speak about DOBbing per se, I would say that their % movement calculation is correct. If you have a horse at 4/1 then half its price would be 2/1 - turn that into decimal odds and you are talking 5.0 and 3.0 (not 5.0 and 2.5).
I'm sure that the website owner provides that rating / percentages table as a resource for dobbers. So we can't really put dobbing aside in this discussion.

In fractional odds terms you're right, but I'm sure that most people when they see on that website that a horse traded inplay at 50% BSP, they think that if BSP was 5.00, the horse traded at 2.50 or below inplay.

Which is clearly not the case with Winning Warlock's figures.

In any case, not a biggie.
phrenetic
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I didn't speak about DOBbing per se as I am not sure of the official definition of DOBbing - it's not something that I have ever done.

If DOBbing is defined as trading at 50% of the BSP odds (i.e. trading at BSP odds / 2), then I assume you can never DOB using a horse that has a BSP less than 2.0
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northbound
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phrenetic wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:05 pm
If DOBbing is defined as trading at 50% of the BSP odds (i.e. trading at BSP odds / 2), then I assume you can never DOB using a horse that has a BSP less than 2.0
Almost correct, basically you can never DOB using a horse with BSP < 2.02.
spreadbetting
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I'd always had the same opinion as phrenetic that dobbing referred to horses trading at half their odds in running not half their BSP , there's a big % between getting a 2.02 shot down to 1.01 as opposed to getting 100 down to 50. I'd imagine most people using those stats are expecting 50% of the true odds not BSP.
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Dallas
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The term DOBing stands for 'Double or Bust' and is used to describe a runner who's odds have traded at 50% of its BSP (or 50% below the price when backed) because at 50% odds you can green up for the value of your stake - hence you have doubled your money (bust if it does not reach 50%).

it's not the change in 'Implied percentage' which is a lot of people get caught out.

So a runner backed at 8.0 that trades at 4.0 has traded at 50% and therefore DOB'ed
Using implied percentage the change from 8.0 to 4.0 is only 12.5%
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