Lay the Draw Guardian Automation Bot for Football

[Tenable]

If you expect there is going to be goals in a match you would lay the draw at the start and look to green up after a goal is scored,, why sit and wait for an early goal to then lay at even higher odds and hope they hold on,, I see no sense in this approach !

[jonnyg]

If you expect there is going to be goals in a match you would lay the draw at the start and look to green up after a goal is scored,, why sit and wait for an early goal to then lay at even higher odds and hope they hold on,, I see no sense in this approach !

make a very interesting point < I have never met a person or model who can predict expectation of goal production in a game before it starts to a high accuracy <

the reason is that expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score = game state , added to the time of the opening goal in an individual league >

if you think you can predict goals to a high accuracy before a game starts then contact me

[Dallas]

I have never met a person or model who can predict expectation of goal production in a game before it starts to a high accuracy <

the reason is that expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score = game state , added to the time of the opening goal in an individual league >

if you think you can predict goals to a high accuracy before a game starts then contact me

I know one person who has done it very accurately for many many years and shares them for others to use, and not including myself I know of several very successful football traders including a few members of this forum who consistently profit from football markets and all do it by first being able to predict with good accuracy the expected amount of goals a match will product then deploying a strategy to suit that.

Without having some idea how many goals are expected you can't possibly decide which strategy to use or which match to target

[jonnyg]

I have never met a person or model who can predict expectation of goal production in a game before it starts to a high accuracy <

the reason is that expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score = game state , added to the time of the opening goal in an individual league >

if you think you can predict goals to a high accuracy before a game starts then contact me

I know one person who has done it very accurately for many many years and shares them for others to use, and not including myself I know of several very successful football traders including a few members of this forum who consistently profit from football markets and all do it by first being able to predict with good accuracy the expected amount of goals a match will product then deploying a strategy to suit that.

Without having some idea how many goals are expected you can't possibly decide which strategy to use or which match to target

Without having some idea how many goals are expected you can't possibly decide which strategy to use or which match to target > that would be irrelevant if you bet in play / trade in play around the events that occur

but YES I am interested in the thought that people predict goals to a high accuracy in a game before it starts at a consistent level

I would assume in terms of strategy if they think a game will have a high goal production then they back goals

if you are going to advise that they look at the expected goal totals re the chance creation in historical games then I would be surprised if they are making long term profits having seen this strategy in action >

[minipeg]

hello ive just done prem 16-17 season
106 games out of 380 away team winning at h/t
5 games ended up home wins so less than 5%
is it possiblle to automate at h/t lay home team if under a certain price cheers paul

[Dallas]

hello ive just done prem 16-17 season
106 games out of 380 away team winning at h/t
5 games ended up home wins so less than 5%
is it possiblle to automate at h/t lay home team if under a certain price cheers paul

Yes it is, you would just need to change the lay bet to be armed at HT and from being applied to Betfair row 3 to Betfair row 1then add a 'Fixed odds condition' and specify the max price

[minipeg]

cheers dallas will try that

[jonnyg]

hello ive just done prem 16-17 season
106 games out of 380 away team winning at h/t
5 games ended up home wins so less than 5%
is it possiblle to automate at h/t lay home team if under a certain price cheers paul

Yes it is, you would just need to change the lay bet to be armed at HT and from being applied to Betfair row 3 to Betfair row 1then add a 'Fixed odds condition' and specify the max price

swansea beat WBA , 0-1 HT Hull beat West ham 0-1 HT West Brom beat Hull 0-1 HT City beat Arsenal 0-1 HT , spurs beat WHU 0-1 HT , Hull beat southampton 0-1 HT

that is already 6 games >

bourne v liverpool 0-2 Ht

7 games

I make it 92 games last season where away team winning HT in PL and 7/92 home wins

apologies < when it comes to football data < I am very anal <

[deansaccount]

hello ive just done prem 16-17 season
106 games out of 380 away team winning at h/t
5 games ended up home wins so less than 5%
is it possiblle to automate at h/t lay home team if under a certain price cheers paul

Yes it is, you would just need to change the lay bet to be armed at HT and from being applied to Betfair row 3 to Betfair row 1then add a 'Fixed odds condition' and specify the max price

swansea beat WBA , 0-1 HT Hull beat West ham 0-1 HT West Brom beat Hull 0-1 HT City beat Arsenal 0-1 HT , spurs beat WHU 0-1 HT , Hull beat southampton 0-1 HT

that is already 6 games >

bourne v liverpool 0-2 Ht

7 games

I make it 92 games last season where away team winning HT in PL and 7/92 home wins

apologies < when it comes to football data < I am avery anal <

So the criteria is..
* away team scored in first 20 mins
* score 0-1 at half time.
only 7 out of those 92 games resulted in away team win?

So lay away team or lay current score?

[minipeg]

its my old eyes jonnyg

[robinG]

Why do you need to wait 90s after an unsuspended before greening?

[Dallas]

Why do you need to wait 90s after an unsuspended before greening?

Its to allow the prices to settle and market to begin reforming

[robinG]

Thanks for the reply.

I can see what you are saying but does this mean you get a lower price, since often you find from the betfair graph that the price has gone higher than the one taken by the bot?

[Dallas]

Thanks for the reply.

I can see what you are saying but does this mean you get a lower price, since often you find from the betfair graph that the price has gone higher than the one taken by the bot?

No its the opposite, if you greened immediately after a goal you would green for a big loss as you'll be need to take a very bad price.

The 90secs is not set in stone you can change this to whatever you wish but i wouldn't go much lower than 60secs especially if trading on an illiquid match

[robinG]

Thank you Dallas for your patience with my questions but I am confused by your last answer saying you would green for a loss. I thought green means profit and that a loss would mean not greening so how is this possible?

However I am interested in how you could maximise your profit by changing the delay, how would you go about testing the best delay to use?