It my favourite time of the year again. Champions day.. then Breeders Cup classic in 2 weeks.
Thought Id start a thread as this year looks very top class and I expected liquidity to be huge.
Champions Day 2017- Ascot
- SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Yes. Personally I think Aidens best chance is Caravggio today.
Order of St George cumming 4th in probably best arc in many years is step to far for me. He ran in the Arc last year and same race. Both Arc and long distance cups were weaker last year. He only managed 4th in this race last year at 4/6. I think Order of St George layed at a place is huge value. Clearly one of the best horses around but so many things point to a good lay for me.
Order of St George cumming 4th in probably best arc in many years is step to far for me. He ran in the Arc last year and same race. Both Arc and long distance cups were weaker last year. He only managed 4th in this race last year at 4/6. I think Order of St George layed at a place is huge value. Clearly one of the best horses around but so many things point to a good lay for me.
I agree.SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Sat Oct 21, 2017 10:00 amYes. Personally I think Aidens best chance is Caravggio today.
I think it'll play out like the Commonwealth Cup where one of the pacemakers will make sure HA doesn't get an easy lead. Softer ground and massive winds will bring stamina into question and that can only help Carravaggio even more.
- SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
I have spent most of my spare time this week working on my speed ratings for Champions day and I will share them for anyone who they may be of any use.
1.25 Long Distance Cup:
Recent Performance:
1. Stradivarious: Rating: 1865
2. Desert Skyline: Rating: 1852(Cheek-pieces has given improvement for each run) 4th run with Cheek-pieces today.
3. Order Of St George: Rating: 1421
Stradivarious and Oder of St George both have recently raced in tough races. Where it is likely they were fully aimed and targeted for those races. ( A Classic and Europe's most prestige race)
If Desert Skyline has improved just a smidge should be hard to beat.
PICK: Desert Skyline Top speed forecast of: 1892
2.00 Champions Sprint:
Recent Performance:
1. Caravaggio: Rating: 1994
2. Harry Angel: Rating: 1854
If you can forgive two poor runs from Caravaggio his recent 5f performance in Ireland was the fastest 5f race since 2015 according to my records.
Based on the pace of the race, going and the weight carried it is ranked better then any performance of Harry Angels.
Harry Angel has done nothing wrong and there will be no surprise if he wins easily.. however the speed figures tell me that Caravaggio is still the better horse.
Can see this race being a photo finish.
PICK: Caravaggio top speed forecast of: 1995
2.40 Fillies and Mares
Recent Performance
1. Bateel: Rating: 1506
2. Journey: Rating: 1445
3. Hydrangea: Rating: 1385
Bateel along with Harry Angel has the most consistent form today imo. However Journey produced a rating of 1648 last year in this race.
Journey looks as if nothing other then this race has been the aim and considering he had bit of a break in the summer and first run back to finish just behind Bateel in a group 1 tells me shes back to her best.
Not sure if Bateel will have any further improvement this year.
PICK: Journey top speed forecast: 1600
3.15 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
Recent Performance
1. Ribchester: Rating: 1908
2. Beat The Bank: Rating 1768 (Improvement expected)
3. Churchill: Rating 1196
Ribchester's form is clear and above nearly anything on the day. Ability wise the best horse running today. However on soft ground his rating suggests hes a good Group 2 horse.
Churchill's Guineas win is still not that impressive on speed ratings and I am leaning towards this horse is just not special when racing against older horses.
Beat the Bank having a age for weight allowance running on soft ground should see him pass Ribchester on the day.
PICK: Beat The Bank top speed forecast of: 1825 (Ribchester runs to around 1750/1800 on soft ground)
3.50 Champion Stakes:
Recent Performance
1. Barney Roy: Rating: 1568
2. Poets Word: Rating: 1418 (Improvement expected)
3. Cracksman: Rating 1230 (Improvement expected)
4. Brametot: Rating ????
Cracksman still hasnt shown me on the clock how good he is. All of his data is a bit over the place. Been running in some very strange and tactical races. His recent run In France is to much of mess to get accurate data for this race.
Poets Word could be a surprise as I cant figure out how much improvement to come.
Brametot... Who Knows how good he is. Cannot source enough accurate data to know how good he is.
On ratings I actually think this is the weakest race of the day (excluding the handicap) but the most open and competitive.
Barney Roy for me has shown the best form and it is still slightly short of top draw.
Anyone's race tbh. Even an outsider.
PICK: Barney Roy top speed forecast of: 1650
(If Barney Roy does win this race I will assume that this years Champion stakes is not as strong as we think.
FOR A POINT OF REFERENCE: FRANKEL RECORDED A SPEED RATING OF 2666 IN THE QUEEN ANNE AT ROYAL ASCOT IN 2012.
1.25 Long Distance Cup:
Recent Performance:
1. Stradivarious: Rating: 1865
2. Desert Skyline: Rating: 1852(Cheek-pieces has given improvement for each run) 4th run with Cheek-pieces today.
3. Order Of St George: Rating: 1421
Stradivarious and Oder of St George both have recently raced in tough races. Where it is likely they were fully aimed and targeted for those races. ( A Classic and Europe's most prestige race)
If Desert Skyline has improved just a smidge should be hard to beat.
PICK: Desert Skyline Top speed forecast of: 1892
2.00 Champions Sprint:
Recent Performance:
1. Caravaggio: Rating: 1994
2. Harry Angel: Rating: 1854
If you can forgive two poor runs from Caravaggio his recent 5f performance in Ireland was the fastest 5f race since 2015 according to my records.
Based on the pace of the race, going and the weight carried it is ranked better then any performance of Harry Angels.
Harry Angel has done nothing wrong and there will be no surprise if he wins easily.. however the speed figures tell me that Caravaggio is still the better horse.
Can see this race being a photo finish.
PICK: Caravaggio top speed forecast of: 1995
2.40 Fillies and Mares
Recent Performance
1. Bateel: Rating: 1506
2. Journey: Rating: 1445
3. Hydrangea: Rating: 1385
Bateel along with Harry Angel has the most consistent form today imo. However Journey produced a rating of 1648 last year in this race.
Journey looks as if nothing other then this race has been the aim and considering he had bit of a break in the summer and first run back to finish just behind Bateel in a group 1 tells me shes back to her best.
Not sure if Bateel will have any further improvement this year.
PICK: Journey top speed forecast: 1600
3.15 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
Recent Performance
1. Ribchester: Rating: 1908
2. Beat The Bank: Rating 1768 (Improvement expected)
3. Churchill: Rating 1196
Ribchester's form is clear and above nearly anything on the day. Ability wise the best horse running today. However on soft ground his rating suggests hes a good Group 2 horse.
Churchill's Guineas win is still not that impressive on speed ratings and I am leaning towards this horse is just not special when racing against older horses.
Beat the Bank having a age for weight allowance running on soft ground should see him pass Ribchester on the day.
PICK: Beat The Bank top speed forecast of: 1825 (Ribchester runs to around 1750/1800 on soft ground)
3.50 Champion Stakes:
Recent Performance
1. Barney Roy: Rating: 1568
2. Poets Word: Rating: 1418 (Improvement expected)
3. Cracksman: Rating 1230 (Improvement expected)
4. Brametot: Rating ????
Cracksman still hasnt shown me on the clock how good he is. All of his data is a bit over the place. Been running in some very strange and tactical races. His recent run In France is to much of mess to get accurate data for this race.
Poets Word could be a surprise as I cant figure out how much improvement to come.
Brametot... Who Knows how good he is. Cannot source enough accurate data to know how good he is.
On ratings I actually think this is the weakest race of the day (excluding the handicap) but the most open and competitive.
Barney Roy for me has shown the best form and it is still slightly short of top draw.
Anyone's race tbh. Even an outsider.
PICK: Barney Roy top speed forecast of: 1650
(If Barney Roy does win this race I will assume that this years Champion stakes is not as strong as we think.
FOR A POINT OF REFERENCE: FRANKEL RECORDED A SPEED RATING OF 2666 IN THE QUEEN ANNE AT ROYAL ASCOT IN 2012.
- Dublin_Flyer
- Posts: 692
- Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am
It's bucketing down in Dublin now, if the rain hasn't hit Ascot yet and this rain hits it, expect ground conditions to deteriorate rapidly. Absolutely great days racing lined up, hope the weather doesn't fxck it up.
Storm Brian, who would have named a storm after such a sexy, intelligent, witty, handsome bastard?
No word from my buddy in Ballydoyle on anything today yet, I'll probably try take a few ticks in play on the pacemakers and go for a DOB plus or minus a bit on Seamie Heffs rides.
If I was a gambling man which I am, I'd go for a forecast in the 2.40, Journey/Wild Irish Rose. For no reason other than I'm going on holidays on tuesday and getting away from wild irish roses!
Storm Brian, who would have named a storm after such a sexy, intelligent, witty, handsome bastard?
No word from my buddy in Ballydoyle on anything today yet, I'll probably try take a few ticks in play on the pacemakers and go for a DOB plus or minus a bit on Seamie Heffs rides.
If I was a gambling man which I am, I'd go for a forecast in the 2.40, Journey/Wild Irish Rose. For no reason other than I'm going on holidays on tuesday and getting away from wild irish roses!
- Crazyskier
- Posts: 1172
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm
Thanks Seahorse, some good work there.
CS
CS
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Think there is a very good chance of a PB today so long as BF behaves itself
You've jinxed yourself nowdragontrades wrote: ↑Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:14 pmThink there is a very good chance of a PB today so long as BF behaves itself
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- Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2010 7:08 pm
2.4m matched at the off. Phenomenal card at Ascot today, really is great for the racing geek's amongst us
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