We Are The Dumb Money!!!!!

[ruthlessimon]

There is a clear difference. I'm an intelligent person with a good understanding of trading but I have occasionally let frustration or carelessness get the better of me, resulting in some fairly amateurish mistakes. This is clearly a mindset/psychology issue.

Personally, I think that's the minority position - i.e. being up there with the Peter's, Dallas's, Jolly's etc.

You've brushed over how you came to that "good understanding" assuming everyone has that - they don't. I reckon 90% don't

[ruthlessimon]

Someone who is dumb as a rock can watch a trading video, apply the approach being shown, and make money if they are disciplined enough.

Jeff

I must have missed that video, got a link Jeff?

[Iron]

https://www.youtube.com/user/betangeltv

Someone who is dumb as a rock can watch a trading video, apply the approach being shown, and make money if they are disciplined enough.

Jeff

I must have missed that video, got a link Jeff?

[Derek27]

OK, fine. But I'd love to see an example of one of these obvious errors I hear so much about.

The list of obvious errors so far:

A. Overstaking
B. Backing at the bottom of the spread and vice versa.
C. Erm, that's it.

Jeff

I think it's stretching it to call that conventional trading wisdom - I have always offered and taken from the market, as appropriate. It's certainly not an error and in very volatile markets where somebody places an order at a daft price, you would have to be bonkers not to take it - if you don't somebody else will and the opportunity is gone.

...not paying attention to the start time and missing the off, forgetting to cancel an unmatched bet which gets matched just before the off, getting distracted by the beauty of Priscilla Schmidt, just a few examples of where I've gone wrong.

[ruthlessimon]

The list of obvious errors so far:

A. Overstaking
B. Backing at the bottom of the spread and vice versa.
C. Erm, that's it.

This again furthers my point. It's extremely easy to point out the error, but solving the error is completely different.

I was just reading this: https://www.tradeciety.com/common-trading-mistakes/

& I hate it!!

stuff like "keep a journal" - Keep journal of good porn? "don't change a strategy after (x) losses" - so what's your protection for the development of what turns out to be a random strategy? "adapt to changing markets".. just make sure you don't before 5 losses in a row etc etc

[Derek27]

There is a clear difference. I'm an intelligent person with a good understanding of trading but I have occasionally let frustration or carelessness get the better of me, resulting in some fairly amateurish mistakes. This is clearly a mindset/psychology issue.

Personally, I think that's the minority position - i.e. being up there with the Peter's, Dallas's, Jolly's etc.

You've brushed over how you came to that "good understanding" assuming everyone has that - they don't. I reckon 90% don't

I would have thought that anyone who consistently profits from trading is either extremely lucky or has a good understanding of trading - I don't regard myself as an exception, I would presume many on this forum have a good understanding of trading. Haven't a clue where you get 90% from.

[Iron]

OK, so now we have:

A. Overstaking
B. Backing at the bottom of the spread and vice versa.
C. Getting distracted by attractive TV presenters (not sure that's a mistake, but I'll keep it in!).
D. Missing the off
E. Forgetting to cancel unmatched bets

I would add:

F. Doubling down when the market runs away from your position.
G. Not cutting your losses when it's prudent to do so (if you are employing a strategy where you use a stop).

Not making those Homer Simpson like errors means I won't lose my shirt as quickly as someone who does (but unless I have a lot more in the tank, lose it I will).

Peter talks about the gap between not making mistakes like the above and profitability as being small, but unless you have some way of generating repeatable alpha, aka an edge, then it might as well be a mile-wide chasm.

Jeff

[Derek27]

Backing at the bottom of the spread or laying at the top isn't necessarily a mistake, there will be instances where you feel the market will sharply move in that direction.

[Iron]

I would have thought that anyone who consistently profits from trading is either extremely lucky or has a good understanding of trading - I don't regard myself as an exception, I would presume many on this forum have a good understanding of trading. Haven't a clue where you get 90% from.

Having a long-term edge doesn't mean that you need to have a good understanding of trading.

This forum shows that many traders disagree strongly about the market.

All you need is to have a long term edge. It may well work despite what you think is going on in the market, rather than because of it.

[ruthlessimon]

I would have thought that anyone who consistently profits from trading is either extremely lucky or has a good understanding of trading - I don't regard myself as an exception, I would presume many on this forum have a good understanding of trading. Haven't a clue where you get 90% from.

I've heard this before, & yes I think it's true. But the Sunday league footballer could absolutely learn something from Harry Kane. Does the Sunday league footballer have a good understanding of football? Imo, to the right person, but it's a tricky one. To a spanking new newbie to football, yes - but at the same time he's only Sunday league. Eventually, if the newbie wants to continue his development - he needs to find Harry Kane

[Iron]

We can nit pick about what items should make the cut, but my central point stands!

Jeff

Backing at the bottom of the spread or laying at the top isn't necessarily a mistake, there will be instances where you feel the market will sharply move in that direction.

[Euler]

We can nit pick about what items should make the cut, but my central point stands!

Jeff

Your central point merely shows where the dumb money is, it's quite ironic really.

[Derek27]

We can nit pick about what items should make the cut, but my central point stands!

Jeff

Backing at the bottom of the spread or laying at the top isn't necessarily a mistake, there will be instances where you feel the market will sharply move in that direction.

It won't happen often in UK markets but in France you sometimes get a back overround of 95%, which means backing every horse at the bottom of the spread can be profitable. True, most horses are only available to back for a few quid but ironically it's usually the favourite that's the giveaway.

[Derek27]

I would have thought that anyone who consistently profits from trading is either extremely lucky or has a good understanding of trading - I don't regard myself as an exception, I would presume many on this forum have a good understanding of trading. Haven't a clue where you get 90% from.

Having a long-term edge doesn't mean that you need to have a good understanding of trading.

This forum shows that many traders disagree strongly about the market.

All you need is to have a long term edge. It may well work despite what you think is going on in the market, rather than because of it.

The fact that football pundits disagree about football doesn't mean one of them lacks understanding.

I know some people may have found a profitable strategy but if you're 100% manual trader and consistently profitable you must have a good understanding of trading. In fact, I can't think of a skilled trade where one can be successful without a good understanding of the trade.

[ruthlessimon]

The fact that football pundits disagree about football doesn't mean one of them lacks understanding.

John Terry doesn't agree!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQq4_JjHQXA