Please can you help me? I am close to depression

[ShaunWhite]

This explains all the talk of the 'cash out' button.
We've got to page 11 before finding out he can't work out how to close a position. It's not just lost in translation.

Luca you really need to slow down. But I'm guessing you're young, have some money and want to make more an easy way so you won't take advice.

You recognise that trading is 'the hardest job', but can't see that you know almost nothing. You also need some humility...umiltà. Did da Vinci paint a masterpiece on his first day at school? No, he made a mess just like you're going to do unless you are prepared to work and work and work some more.

Stop doing screen shots and looking at girls playing tennis and read instead.

[Derek27]

You need to be honest with yourself as well. If you haven't learnt the very basics of trading such as calculating your closing stake and knowing how much you are risking, to call yourself a talented little champion when it comes to trading - that's probably what you want to be or believe!

[phrenetic]

@Lucacrebbe

As you cannot log in to betfair.com, the odds that you are seeing are NOT representative of the current market conditions. When you are not logged in, the odds that are displayed on the screen are DELAYED odds.

Here is an example screenshot - betfair.com (not logged in) on the left, BA on the right. This is a single screenshot, with both browser and BA on my screen at the same time (i.e. the pictures show the exact same moment in time)

tennis_delayed.png

[Derek27]

I've just had a look at betfair.it, the Kicker v Tiafoe match. I may be missing something but Kicker was available to lay at 4.4 in Italy while at the same time he was available to back on the UK exchange at 5.5.

Thanks Phrenetic, that explains what I was missing.

[Lucacrebbe]

@Lucacrebbe

As you cannot log in to betfair.com, the odds that you are seeing are NOT representative of the current market conditions. When you are not logged in, the odds that are displayed on the screen are DELAYED odds.

Here is an example screenshot - betfair.com (not logged in) on the left, BA on the right. This is a single screenshot, with both browser and BA on my screen at the same time (i.e. the pictures show the exact same moment in time)

tennis_delayed.png

yes maybe are a little bit delayed, but I 'd have baked Pavliucenko at 21 anyway, because looking at the previous match, she had won 3 matches to 1, so statistically that odd was overpriced.
That's it. And too much overpriced, also.

Anyway you are right, it's impossible to get an idea without being logged in.


I am a speed trader... I think that being fast is all in this game.

In 3 seconds you can't calculate how much you would lose if you enter in a trade... for example I saw that 21 price, I realized it was a value bet, so I jumped in with average confidence, because I knew chances that odd will have been lower were in my favour

If there was a software that in real time shows you the potential profit / loss , based ON THE LIQUIDITY in the lay side would be great

Because let's immagine that in the lay side there was no liquidity... I would be burnt.... there is no point that a lay price is lower than the price you back, if there isn't enough liquidity in the lay side to cover your loss or boost your profits up

Tennis trader could be helpful for this problem? (to calculate the liquidity in the lay side)?

[Derek27]

I am a speed trader... I think that being fast is all in this game.

In 3 seconds you can't calculate how much you would lose if you enter in a trade... for example I saw that 21 price, I realized it was a value bet, so I jumped in with average confidence, because I knew chances that odd will have been lower were in my favour

A good trader should be able to estimate fairly accurately and quickly how much you can lose before opening a trade, otherwise you will be overstaking. I don't think you need to be good at mental arithmetic, it comes with experience (unless all dart players are mathematicians).

The fact that you had to ask how much you would have lost on this forum suggests that you can't calculate how much you would lose in 3 hours - it's hardly speed trading, having to ask on a forum what your risk is, especially with tennis, where you just have 10 seconds or less to make a decision!!!

You really need to get some trading software (don't know if Bet Angle works with betfair.it), and learn to use it, so it can do all the calculations for you.

But first you need to learn the maths behind trading. You shouldn't even use trading software if you don't understand what it's doing or how it calculates green-ups.

[Dallas]

tbh from his earlier posts in his current situation, he is not going to be able to access any exchange. Bet Angel only works with Betfair.com accounts and won't work with either Betfair.es or Betfair.it

If he moves to Germany as he said he was near the start of the thread he won't have access to any exchange with a German IP, you can only use the Sportsbook in Germany

His only option is open a Betfair.com from a country where the Betfair exchange is permitted then once his address etc has been verified he could use a VPS or VPN if moving to another country that has restrictions.

[ShaunWhite]

I am a speed trader... I think that being fast is all in this game.

But you said that nothing was better than technical anaysis?

Luca you are NOT a 'speed trader'. You are not any type of trader while you keep saying the things you do.

and...

In 3 seconds you can't calculate how much you would lose if you enter in a trade...

I know in 1 second what it's going to be closer than you worked it out taking a long time. I know that because I have 1000s of hours of experience.

I'm all for helping and encouraging people but you need to start listening to some of the advice people are giving you.

[Lucacrebbe]

I know in 1 second what it's going to be closer than you worked it out taking a long time. I know that because I have 1000s of hours of experience.

I'm all for helping and encouraging people but you need to start listening to some of the advice people are giving you.

I appreciate your advices, thank you

But you have the ladder on Betangel software, I think you can see all the money waiting to be matched on both sides before making any choise, anyway a software that can calculate the potencial PROFIT / LOSS BEFORE you try to OPEN a position would be great.

Does Betangel have this kind of option?

As I know Betangel it has Tennis trader tool that calcultes the RISK/REWARD before opening a position, but it's not based on liquidity , I think it's based on tennis player statistics....

So that kind of software would not be useful for me... because it would be a too approsimativly statistic way, to calculate odds and risk / reward.

It will never work (otherwise everyone would have been rich just using this kind of software, lol)

I think it fails because it's too semplicistic in the way to calculate the real odd and risk/reward

No robot will ever beat a potential brain

'''Your brain is like a quantum computer'' (quote from an successful investitors, I don't remember the name)

It would be better to programmate your own software... but it would never be the same as you to use your (potencial) brain before open a trade

Basically I don't trust any robot of this kind, cause AI it's on its infancy

Only when Quantum computers will start to appear there will be a good way to predict financial markets, or sports events.

For now human brain is the bst quantum computer you have.

I am not saying statistics are trash... they are useful, but you don't need to relay only on statistics, or you will lose


That being said, yes baking 1000$ has been an hazard... you are right, maybe staking 300$ would have been the right choise.

But consider that of 1000$ 800$ was pure (virtual) profit that I had made in previous bets and mathes

Basically I have staked 800$ of ''free money''

In this point of wiev it''s not that hazard at all... profit money , easy come, easy go.


Anyway yesterday I have lost roughly 400$ making a bad trade, staking 1000$ on Christine Machale vs Gabrine Muguruza.

Was able to quit fast enough to do not lose more (discipline).

That's a good sign.

Why have lost them?

Weak trade.... I didn't kew much of Machale... and I baked her.

Too lazy to search accuratley informations about her, and I analized her statistics prematch in a superficial way.

This kindd of ''sin's' you pay them in trading, with money loss.

So 800- 420 = roughly 380 $ profits

(They could be less, but I don't calculate them accuratley because I KNOW I WILL be in profit at the end of month. Too skilled at this game to fail)

Profit money = easy come, easy go.

YOUR MONEY = WATCH OUT AND BE CAREFUL in every trade you enter

[ShaunWhite]

I don't calculate them accuratley because I KNOW I WILL be in profit at the end of month.

Too skilled at this game to fail ...." Too lazy to search accuratley informations about her, and I analized her statistics prematch in a superficial way".

And too lazy to learn what trading is? You are not trading, you are gambling. Nothing you are doing is being done from a trading point of view.

Trading is not a back bet and a lay bet. That is just 2 gambles.

Why have lost them?

What strike rate were you hoping to get? 100% ?

The help is here but you don't want it, i give up.

[Lucacrebbe]

I don't calculate them accuratley because I KNOW I WILL be in profit at the end of month.

Too skilled at this game to fail ...." Too lazy to search accuratley informations about her, and I analized her statistics prematch in a superficial way".

And too lazy to learn what trading is? You are not trading, you are gambling. Nothing you are doing is being done from a trading point of view.

Sir, I follow tennis since one year.

I am not like many who scalp the horsing races.. or enter into a trade in a sport they don't know nothing about, just because ''the weight of money indicators is moving''

If indicators could help in the 40% of trading choises, you would have seen a lot of rich people around the world.

The reality is that indicators help you at a rate of 10% when it comes to making a good trade, especially in sport trading that is too fast and less liquid than financial market
Everyone who relay on indicators in sport trading will lose long term.
That's my opinion.

I think that a 10% every month is totally achievable. And with a minimum risk.
At least for me. For what I have seen since one year I am in the game.


Want to know what is the problem?

The problem is that from a stake of 1000 $ even if 100$ every month is way too easy to achieve, it costs too much hassle and researchs.

If the market (Betfair.com) was so liquid that at every odd offer you could see 10k/20k , I would confortably staked 10k

10% out of 10 k > 1000 $ per month.

And this is almost a wage salary, man. So the revenue worth the efforts. AND AT A minimum risk (at least for me)


But in this illiquid market I would never put 10k, I'll be crazy if I would put 10k on Betfair.com when with spread and illiquid offers it could be easly reduced by the half with a simple bad trade.

That would be really crazy.


I see how the odds move, I have traced a ''pattern'' ..... it's always the same: when we are close to the end of the match and we are at the match point (near to the end of the match) magically at the price of 1,03 they starts to appear in back and lay an increadible ammount OF MONEY

REALLY, this pattern is real, ask every tennis trader.

It starts to appear at 1.03 price offers of (20, 30k)... yesterday even 65k !! (kerber vs Pavliucenka)

That is all the dumb money of the people that want ''a piece'' of the cake (of the match) and that want to achieve a ''sure profit'' with a match point

On the other side (the back side), there are a TON of people laying the player who is going to play the match point, ''hoping'' for him to fails, and so assuring themself a little secure profit..

This is a curious pattern, that in my point of wiev could be '''exploited''' in some particular matches, to gain big , big profits

[Derek27]

It will never work (otherwise everyone would have been rich just using this kind of software, lol)

I think it fails because it's too semplicistic in the way to calculate the real odd and risk/reward

No robot will ever beat a potential brain

'''Your brain is like a quantum computer'' (quote from an successful investitors, I don't remember the name)

It would be better to programmate your own software... but it would never be the same as you to use your (potencial) brain before open a trade

Basically I don't trust any robot of this kind, cause AI it's on its infancy

Only when Quantum computers will start to appear there will be a good way to predict financial markets, or sports events.

For now human brain is the bst quantum computer you have.

I am not saying statistics are trash... they are useful, but you don't need to relay only on statistics, or you will lose

That being said, yes baking 1000$ has been an hazard... you are right, maybe staking 300$ would have been the right choise.

With all due respect Luca, you cannot say something won't work when you've never used it. Bet Angel and other trading software are not designed to make money - they are tools that traders use to trade. Ultimately it depends on the skill of the trader.

Let's be honest - you were unable to work out your loss for a trade opened at 21 and closed at 55. I can assure you it doesn't take a quantum computer to work it out, but a calculator can.

You did suggest statistics are trash and it was us that told you that you will lose if you rely purely on statistics!

I think $300 may be hazardous as well - how about minimum $2 stakes?

[ShaunWhite]

Yes you are describing (almost) what has happened for a very long time at short prices. You are explaining it as if I have never seen it before.

Dallas has already explained how to profit from the situation.

I seem to remember that last time you saw Wozniaki at 1.05 you backed her and then asked what went wrong. Now you say you have studied it for a long time and call the backers 'dumb' money?

You also say (incorrectly) that indicators will help you get 10% on your trade but 10% a month is not enough . That doesn't make sense. If you make 10% a trade you will make far far FAR more than 10% a month.

What do you expect your turnover a month to be? How many trades per month?

[Lucacrebbe]

Yes you are describing (almost) what has happened for a very long time at short prices. You are explaining it as if I have never seen it before.

Dallas has already explained how to profit from the situation.

I seem to remember that last time you saw Wozniaki at 1.05 you backed her and then asked what went wrong. Now you say you have studied it for a long time and call the backers 'dumb' money?

You also say (incorrectly) that indicators will help you get 10% on your trade but 10% a month is not enough . That doesn't make sense. If you make 10% a trade you will make far far FAR more than 10% a month.

What do you expect your turnover a month to be? How many trades per month?

I have not said that indicators will let you earn 10%, I have said that indicators WILL HELP you in a rate of 10% to achieve a sucsessful trade.

If you relay only on them you will be at 90% of loss. That's my point of wiev

Yes, I was stupid to back Wozniacki at 1.03, that are the kind of mistake to do not do, but it happens somtime. You have to be able to do not make these kind of errors. It's hard.

I think the most of people that back at 1.03 (and this is shown in the hig liquidity at 1.03) are in the most of cases stupids (including me who I have backed Wozniaki 1.03)

On the other hand, the other people who lay at 1.03, are not smart at all... cause they can be wrong as well. It depends.


But it's a fact that the dumb money comes in at the end.

Immagine laying a tennis player at 1.03 with 20'000, risking only 200$, and immagine this player would have lost the match point.

It doesn't happen often , but it happens. And if when it happen s you are smart enough to stay at right side of the ladder, you can earn so much profit risking almost nothing.

[Derek27]

I am not like many who scalp the horsing races.. or enter into a trade in a sport they don't know nothing about, just because ''the weight of money indicators is moving''

The reality is you don't know much about tennis either. You backed a tennis player simply because she won 4 out of 5 of the head-to-heads. That's hardly demonstrating expertise in tennis!

I think that a 10% every month is totally achievable. And with a minimum risk.
At least for me. For what I have seen since one year I am in the game.

Why???

If you can't even work out how to close a trade why to you feel a profit of any sort is achievable?

If the market (Betfair.com) was so liquid that at every odd offer you could see 10k/20k , I would confortably staked 10k

You mean you could comfortable LOSE $10,000. I don't know why you think you're going to make a 10% profit!

That is all the dumb money of the people that want ''a piece'' of the cake (of the match) and that want to achieve a ''sure profit'' with a match point

On the other side (the back side), there are a TON of people laying the player who is going to play the match point, ''hoping'' for him to fails, and so assuring themself a little secure profit..

This is a curious pattern, that in my point of wiev could be '''exploited''' in some particular matches, to gain big , big profits

That's very true, the problem is, your money is on the dumb side:-

The only people backing in that situation will of been gamblers/punters, it was not a 'Trading Opportunity' just about every serious or successful trader will of been looking at laying only

You risked $1000 to win $50 but only if she won the 2nd set

If you layed her at 1.06 (for the same $1000 risk) even if she stumbled or faced a break point her odds would of drifted a few ticks, if they drifted to just 1.09 which was hightly likely if facing a break point you could of traded out and made $450 (9 times the amount just through facing a break of serve) perhaps as early as the 1st game of the 2nd set!

Yes, I have been very stupid in that situation.