How much do you vary staking level

A place to discuss anything.
Post Reply
stueytrader
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

I'm not meaning going on tilt and chucking the bank on a lay just to clarify first.. :D

But how much do you deliberately alter stake range. And for what reasons?

I know there is price range for selections traded, that is certainly my basic criteria for altering stake. But other factors, for example your degree of confidence, views on possible larger moves etc?
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 22674
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

Excluding adjusting them depending on the liquidity and how much a market can take about the only reason I have for changing my staking is the degree of confidence I have in whats happening in the market
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

If you look at Newmarket today there is £300k in prize money and only £30k at Chepstow so I will ramp up stakes at Newmarket and gently prod the market at Chepstow with smaller stakes unless I feel confident it is trading well.
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Same as Dallas, stakes for me are simply decided due to the available liquidity because you either don't want to spook the market or miss out on the increased liquidity of bigger meetings. Other than that it comes down to the confidence you have in where you assume the market's moving.
stueytrader
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

So, mostly the liquidity seems the biggest criteria for upping or downing staking from the replies above.

I can see that the amount the market can take is a good issue to consider, though possibly would anyone ever consider that putting a larger amount is a positive? E.g. moving a market into a position you wanted. I realise that comes under the 'spoofing' area of trading of course.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23476
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

stueytrader wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:18 am
So, mostly the liquidity seems the biggest criteria for upping or downing staking from the replies above.

I can see that the amount the market can take is a good issue to consider, though possibly would anyone ever consider that putting a larger amount is a positive? E.g. moving a market into a position you wanted. I realise that comes under the 'spoofing' area of trading of course.
The main problem with that is that if the money's taken you may not be able to close trade. You could have £500 backed at 4.0 and find there's just a few £5/10/20 bets all the way up to 20!
User avatar
SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Imo vary staking is the one aspect in trading which takes the longest to learn. For some it could take years as until your using big stakes it’s hard to know what the market will take.
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 22674
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

stueytrader wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:18 am
So, mostly the liquidity seems the biggest criteria for upping or downing staking from the replies above.

I can see that the amount the market can take is a good issue to consider, though possibly would anyone ever consider that putting a larger amount is a positive? E.g. moving a market into a position you wanted. I realise that comes under the 'spoofing' area of trading of course.
A general rule of thumb is watching the next three prices behind you and if the stake you're about to use exceeds whats available at these then you have a problem if you need to get out quickly without taking a bigger loss than needed
stueytrader
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

Dallas wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:24 am
stueytrader wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:18 am
So, mostly the liquidity seems the biggest criteria for upping or downing staking from the replies above.

I can see that the amount the market can take is a good issue to consider, though possibly would anyone ever consider that putting a larger amount is a positive? E.g. moving a market into a position you wanted. I realise that comes under the 'spoofing' area of trading of course.
A general rule of thumb is watching the next three prices behind you and if the stake you're about to use exceeds whats available at these then you have a problem if you need to get out quickly without taking a bigger loss than needed
I do get the points about needing sufficient liquidity to make the exit, I agree. Though that does sort of suggest that the entire concept of spoofing/manipulation would never work in any market, so is that true....?
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 22674
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

stueytrader wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:39 am
Dallas wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:24 am
stueytrader wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:18 am
So, mostly the liquidity seems the biggest criteria for upping or downing staking from the replies above.

I can see that the amount the market can take is a good issue to consider, though possibly would anyone ever consider that putting a larger amount is a positive? E.g. moving a market into a position you wanted. I realise that comes under the 'spoofing' area of trading of course.
A general rule of thumb is watching the next three prices behind you and if the stake you're about to use exceeds whats available at these then you have a problem if you need to get out quickly without taking a bigger loss than needed
I do get the points about needing sufficient liquidity to make the exit, I agree. Though that does sort of suggest that the entire concept of spoofing/manipulation would never work in any market, so is that true....?
If you were intentionally spoofing you need to know exactly what you're doing and select the right times etc, even then there is always a risk of it being taken. If you do it at near random or without any idea of what you're doing you will get caught out sooner rather than later.

I've certainly lost count of the times over the years I've seen someone try to manipulate a price only to have their entire stake swallowed - its then quite comical watching them (and profiting) from their panic as they try to get out with next to no money available
User avatar
to75ne
Posts: 2413
Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2009 5:37 pm

stueytrader wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:39 am
Dallas wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:24 am
stueytrader wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:18 am
So, mostly the liquidity seems the biggest criteria for upping or downing staking from the replies above.

I can see that the amount the market can take is a good issue to consider, though possibly would anyone ever consider that putting a larger amount is a positive? E.g. moving a market into a position you wanted. I realise that comes under the 'spoofing' area of trading of course.
A general rule of thumb is watching the next three prices behind you and if the stake you're about to use exceeds whats available at these then you have a problem if you need to get out quickly without taking a bigger loss than needed
I do get the points about needing sufficient liquidity to make the exit, I agree. Though that does sort of suggest that the entire concept of spoofing/manipulation would never work in any market, so is that true....?
spoofing can only work well if the participants in the market dont know or realise there is an attempt going on to spoof it.

if they can spot it, it can be exploited, or treated as noise (depending on various factors as to which).
stueytrader
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

I may have slightly moved this discussion away into a discussion about market manipulation, so I do take onboard those points certainly about that aspect of staking. However, can anyone say how much (without specific amounts, if talking actual amounts is slightly rude :) ) they actually vary their staking in across the markets - I mean are we talking large differences or rather small changes in your staking planning?

I vary currently from my smallest (let's call it 1 unit) to my largest (about 4.5 units) in my staking planning at the moment. Is that a large variation for others or small?

And are there any times when you feel an opportunity is so good you would risk breaking your normal staking planning entirely (a dangerous area I know)?
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

stueytrader wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:14 pm
I vary currently from my smallest (let's call it 1 unit) to my largest (about 4.5 units) in my staking planning at the moment. Is that a large variation for others or small?

And are there any times when you feel an opportunity is so good you would risk breaking your normal staking planning entirely (a dangerous area I know)?
You should simply be staking what you're comfortable with, I vary my stakes very rarely and usually bet up to a liability if laying first. There's always another market and if something looks too good to be true there's usually a sting in the tail from my experience.
CallumPerry
Posts: 575
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:12 pm
Location: Wolverhampton

Has anybody explored varying EVERY ONE of their stakes based on the Kelly Criteria? Say I have a formula that calculates how confident I am on a move happening soon (0-100%) and I have a trigger on i.e. 60% I think the price is likely to drift soon then you'd use 0.6 in the Kelly criteria to calculate your stake. Maybe you have a few triggers at 0.7 and 0.8 and 0.9 too.

Or do people just use the Kelly Criteria to scale up their total stake unit size every so often when their total pot builds? Interested to know people's thoughts.
User avatar
to75ne
Posts: 2413
Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2009 5:37 pm

CallumPerry wrote:
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:56 pm
Has anybody explored varying EVERY ONE of their stakes based on the Kelly Criteria? Say I have a formula that calculates how confident I am on a move happening soon (0-100%) and I have a trigger on i.e. 60% I think the price is likely to drift soon then you'd use 0.6 in the Kelly criteria to calculate your stake. Maybe you have a few triggers at 0.7 and 0.8 and 0.9 too.

Or do people just use the Kelly Criteria to scale up their total stake unit size every so often when their total pot builds? Interested to know people's thoughts.
that sounds like an awfully complex way of staking.

reading various posts on the this forum lately, seems that complexity seems to be the fashion now in trading (with tons of graphs to)
Post Reply

Return to “General discussion”