Newcastle AW

[elofan0]

one of the good things about newcastle is its one of the four tracks that record sectional times in their results
as seen in this example on at the races past result of one of todays runners mambo dancer
http://www.attheraces.com/form-popup/ra ... id=1064588

[bobs71]

Newcastle is quite unique in the All weather world in that it is the only AW track that has a straight mile. That mile is quite testing , and rises around 31 feet from start to the finish line , with the majority of that incline (21 ft) coming between 3f out and the finishing line.

Newcastle straight.JPG

That uphill finish has a slowing effect on the times and last furlong sectionals are comparable only to Southwell (which has the slowest final sectionals of all AW tracks) - The other variable the track is prone to due to situation is wind , particularly strong westerly winds which blow right down the home straight into the faces of the runners. The clerk of the course James Armstrong is a decent guy (also covers Hexham over the jumps) and responds to any questions about the track through email or on twitter and usually posts up decent info about the tracked being worked on , wind speeds (he takes them with an anemometer) etc. The surface Tapeta is generally a fair compound but can tighten up over the winter and this can also have an effect on the times.
The track is not as front runner friendly as say Chelmsford or Southwell , and you see a lot of finishes decided well inside the last furlong.
Runstyle data / Std Final / Sectional Times attached

Newcastle Runstyle.PNG

Std Times.PNG

[bobs71]

One thing worth knowing about the track seeing that it shares the "same" surface as Wolverhampton - Tapeta
Horses running at Newcastle whose last race at Wolverhampton have a horrible record compared to the other AW tracks - punters might assume some correlation in surface type but historically since the track opened it is not there and if anything the reverse is true - they win as a group just over 8% and only Southwell is worse (Fibresand) - the reason for this is probably that the manufacturers of Tapeta (created by ex-trainer Michael Dickinson)are continually improving / upgrading the compound , so no two track layings are alike - Wolverhampton was done in 2014 and Newcastle in 2016. Whether this continues remains to be seen , although the chi-score is high enough in significance to believe it will.

Newcastle AW by Last race.PNG

The other thing is that Newmarket trained horses have a significant record at the track and a higher than average win , win/place % - considering the distance and round trip they have to travel. They win as a group around 20% of the time from a decent sample size and only lose around 3% to BFSP

Newcastle - Newmarket trained horses.PNG

[wearthefoxhat]

Newcastle is quite unique in the All weather world in that it is the only AW track that has a straight mile. That mile is quite testing , and rises around 31 feet from start to the finish line , with the majority of that incline (21 ft) coming between 3f out and the finishing line.Newcastle straight.JPG That uphill finish has a slowing effect on the times and last furlong sectionals are comparable only to Southwell (which has the slowest final sectionals of all AW tracks) - The other variable the track is prone to due to situation is wind , particularly strong westerly winds which blow right down the home straight into the faces of the runners. The clerk of the course James Armstrong is a decent guy (also covers Hexham over the jumps) and responds to any questions about the track through email or on twitter and usually posts up decent info about the tracked being worked on , wind speeds (he takes them with an anemometer) etc. The surface Tapeta is generally a fair compound but can tighten up over the winter and this can also have an effect on the times.
The track is not as front runner friendly as say Chelmsford or Southwell , and you see a lot of finishes decided well inside the last furlong.
Runstyle data / Std Final / Sectional Times attachedNewcastle Runstyle.PNGStd Times.PNG

Nice info bobs71!

[ruthlessimon]

I have to say Newcastle is interesting (I wish I knew why #reversible-losers)

Really does stick like a sore thumb on this strategy.

& as a bonus, the fact Windsor's top, almost certainly means it's correlated to one of Peter's strategies

[ShaunWhite]

I have to say Newcastle is interesting (I wish I knew why #reversible-losers)

You've got a "Newc" and a "Newcastle" in there Simon, makes it even more of a standout when they're summed.
Are these scaled according to how many races there were?

[ShaunWhite]

ditto Leic and Leicester, Kemp and Kempton, Wolv and Wolverhampton too....and Wind and Windsor.
I think you need and alphabetic sort first to get rid of the wrinkles.

Ling and Lingfield, Bri and Brighton.........is it deliberate?

[ruthlessimon]

You've got a "Newc" and a "Newcastle" in there Simon, makes it even more of a standout when they're summed.
Are these scaled according to how many races there were?

yeah I just noticed that too, similarly Windsor gets a boost. This is gonna take some grunt work to clean (a problem due to holes in the data.. )

That's a good shout, I'll add that metric - watch dis space

[ShaunWhite]

This is gonna take some grunt work to clean (a problem due to holes in the data.. )

Make sure you record all those find/replaces as a big fat macro....it can go in your data scrubbing toolbox then.

[SeaHorseRacing]

Newcastle is quite unique in the All weather world in that it is the only AW track that has a straight mile. That mile is quite testing , and rises around 31 feet from start to the finish line , with the majority of that incline (21 ft) coming between 3f out and the finishing line.Newcastle straight.JPG That uphill finish has a slowing effect on the times and last furlong sectionals are comparable only to Southwell (which has the slowest final sectionals of all AW tracks) - The other variable the track is prone to due to situation is wind , particularly strong westerly winds which blow right down the home straight into the faces of the runners. The clerk of the course James Armstrong is a decent guy (also covers Hexham over the jumps) and responds to any questions about the track through email or on twitter and usually posts up decent info about the tracked being worked on , wind speeds (he takes them with an anemometer) etc. The surface Tapeta is generally a fair compound but can tighten up over the winter and this can also have an effect on the times.
The track is not as front runner friendly as say Chelmsford or Southwell , and you see a lot of finishes decided well inside the last furlong.
Runstyle data / Std Final / Sectional Times attachedNewcastle Runstyle.PNGStd Times.PNG

How are you working out the increase in height in the track? Additionally, would love to have a go and doing so at other tracks.

[ruthlessimon]

Made in quite a bit of haste, but i think it's right

[ruthlessimon]

Interesting that York is worse than Newcastle (avg p&l) - but York's sample was 4 races, which could be a factor.

Even so, for such a quality course, I'd expect it at least midway - not bottom!

[ruthlessimon]

This has got me thinking.

The strategy above was a lay strategy (liveshow only)

I'm now going to look at a completely uncorrelated strategy (backing strategy) - but has a very similar p&l & trade frequency to the lay strat above.

I'm fascinated to see where Newcastle sits - if it's still one of the worst, there's gotta be an exploitable bias lurking

[ruthlessimon]

I'm fascinated to see where Newcastle sits - if it's still one of the worst, there's gotta be an exploitable bias lurking

Got that wrong

But the AW argument certainly doesn't stack up, in terms of "impossible to trade" - maybe it's just down to the veteran traders not being able to deploy those 4fig stakes

Windsor comes out 3rd - maybe Peter knows this one too

[foxwood]

I'm fascinated to see where Newcastle sits - if it's still one of the worst, there's gotta be an exploitable bias lurking

Wind direction is also supposedly relevant at Newcastle - forecasts for tracks at http://www.myweather2.com/Horse-Racing/ ... harts.aspx

As soon as you work out what the edge was it will probably have vanished now you've publicised it so much