Compared to Betfair SP historical csv files your results are different had you placed bets at SP on the 9th March would have given the 1st Fav an overall profit of £21.33 all the rest were loses (4th Fav minus -£38.95)
Over a 30 day rolling period 3 selections would be in the money, with only 1 selection making decent money.
Little Experiment
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spreadbetting
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I think it simply confirms that if you put no effort into your opening bet and take whatevers on offer you'll never win long term. Maybe you should simply compare the odds you took against the BSP and it'll show how bad the odds you were prepared to take were.
On the contrary, I think those results are quite encouraging to dog punters. If you can make a loss of only £4.60 by blindly backing the favourites in each race it does show that the odds for the favourite are quite competitive and there may be some value to be found by a punter who's more selective.MemphisFlash wrote: ↑Sun Mar 10, 2019 10:11 amRight, the results are in and it makes pretty dismal reading.
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spreadbetting
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You should know by now one day's results are hardly indicative of how a market will behave long term , Derek.
Hate to fuel the negativity fire but I must point out that you've fallen prey to selection bias there Derek in cherrypicking the 6th Fav's P&L.
Punters should in fact be discouraged because the average result of blind-backing favs was -£37.48.
From £179 total bets for the day — that's a 21% loss, worse than the average slot machines!
Only mention it as I know you'll benefit from not doing this in the future.
Also Memphis I'm curious why you hedged when profit achieved a 10% return, seems like it'd just skew the results unnecessarily.
I'm guessing this has proved favourable in the long run for you elsewhere.
Punters should in fact be discouraged because the average result of blind-backing favs was -£37.48.
From £179 total bets for the day — that's a 21% loss, worse than the average slot machines!
Only mention it as I know you'll benefit from not doing this in the future.
Also Memphis I'm curious why you hedged when profit achieved a 10% return, seems like it'd just skew the results unnecessarily.
I'm guessing this has proved favourable in the long run for you elsewhere.
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MemphisFlash
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- Location: Leicester
no this was just a test as i wanted to know if people followed blindly any sort of thing like this,
like backing the fav or only backing trap 3 or only following one particular jockey would actually work.
i chose greyhounds for test as there are so many per day and things like weather and conditions have little or no
effect on dogs. This is not a strategy i have ever used. just wanted to know so i set the test up.
I was more pleased that my laptop
stood up to 10 versions of Bet angel being open, along with streaming, and excel all at same time.
like backing the fav or only backing trap 3 or only following one particular jockey would actually work.
i chose greyhounds for test as there are so many per day and things like weather and conditions have little or no
effect on dogs. This is not a strategy i have ever used. just wanted to know so i set the test up.
I was more pleased that my laptop
stood up to 10 versions of Bet angel being open, along with streaming, and excel all at same time.
I never suggested they are indicative of anything. I was basically saying they are not dismal reading but encouraging.spreadbetting wrote: ↑Sun Mar 10, 2019 3:47 pmYou should know by now one day's results are hardly indicative of how a market will behave long term , Derek.
I misread those results, I thought it was the 1st fav that had a loss of £4.60.eightbo wrote: ↑Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:49 pmHate to fuel the negativity fire but I must point out that you've fallen prey to selection bias there Derek in cherrypicking the 6th Fav's P&L.
Punters should in fact be discouraged because the average result of blind-backing favs was -£37.48.
From £179 total bets for the day — that's a 21% loss, worse than the average slot machines!
Only mention it as I know you'll benefit from not doing this in the future.
Also Memphis I'm curious why you hedged when profit achieved a 10% return, seems like it'd just skew the results unnecessarily.
I'm guessing this has proved favourable in the long run for you elsewhere.
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MemphisFlash
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the hedge for 10p was probably a mistake. i put it into the 6th fav first, then copied the rule for the other five.
my thinking at the time was that the 6th fav would vary rarely come in so i was looking to that for greening up
more an insurance thing. and then i wanted an even test, so left it in.
my thinking at the time was that the 6th fav would vary rarely come in so i was looking to that for greening up
more an insurance thing. and then i wanted an even test, so left it in.
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eatyourgreens
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So, if backing all of them produced a loss at the end of the day, would laying them all have shown a profit !! 
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MemphisFlash
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- Location: Leicester
probably not. i am not going to lay a 6th fav for £1 to lose say £13 when it romps in.
And the first Fav winnings were probably not enough to get into the positive either.
And the first Fav winnings were probably not enough to get into the positive either.