The main one I am interested in is over/under 2.5 goals. When the odds are lower for one suggesting the market thinks that will win how often is it right, please?
The similar market stats would be cool too if possible.
How often does the market predict the number of goals correctly based on price?
- Kafkaesque
- Posts: 886
- Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am
I think you need to specify your query, and quantify it more precisely.
Unless I'm missing something, even if you do get the answer to your question, as it stands, said answer would be of zero value.
No matter if the market is correct 5, 55, or 95 percent of the time on the OU 2.5, that doesn't mean anything without taking into account the distribution among the shortest price of the two selections.
- Kafkaesque
- Posts: 886
- Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am
Martingale? Just a stab, based on your request and (your) history, so fire at will if I'm out of bounds....
I'll be on the other side of your "the price doesn't matter" in OU 2.5 goals-markets, so now that I've tried advice once, then by all means don't let me stop you....
I'll be on the other side of your "the price doesn't matter" in OU 2.5 goals-markets, so now that I've tried advice once, then by all means don't let me stop you....
- Kafkaesque
- Posts: 886
- Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am
Still sounds strange to me. Be that as it may, I stand corrected. Apologies and all the best with it Hope you find the data you need...
All good mate.Kafkaesque wrote: ↑Mon Apr 08, 2019 1:02 amStill sounds strange to me. Be that as it may, I stand corrected. Apologies and all the best with it Hope you find the data you need...
- firlandsfarm
- Posts: 2720
- Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am
In an attempt to give you a guideline and nothing more ...
Season: 2017/18
League: EPL
MAtches: All (380)
Market: OU 2.5 only
Reasoning: Lowest Odds is Market Prediction
Odd Source: best bookmaker (Don't have Betfair odds)
Over-round Adjustment: adjusted to 100% book
Prediction Count: Yes=216 (57%) No=164 (43%)
But I totally agree with Kafkaesque it's not if correct but how correct and for that you have to include the actual odds.
Season: 2017/18
League: EPL
MAtches: All (380)
Market: OU 2.5 only
Reasoning: Lowest Odds is Market Prediction
Odd Source: best bookmaker (Don't have Betfair odds)
Over-round Adjustment: adjusted to 100% book
Prediction Count: Yes=216 (57%) No=164 (43%)
But I totally agree with Kafkaesque it's not if correct but how correct and for that you have to include the actual odds.
- firlandsfarm
- Posts: 2720
- Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am
To demonstrate Kafkaesque's point. If you had placed a best bookie bet (so no commission) on the 'predicted' outcome of each of the matches analysed in my previous post you would have made a loss of 14.84 points. It's not if you win but how much you win.Kafkaesque wrote: ↑Sun Apr 07, 2019 6:59 pmUnless I'm missing something, even if you do get the answer to your question, as it stands, said answer would be of zero value.
No matter if the market is correct 5, 55, or 95 percent of the time on the OU 2.5, that doesn't mean anything without taking into account the distribution among the shortest price of the two selections.