Tournament starts 21st of June in Egypt.
Most matches will be played in hot conditions, with temperatures of 30C+ and 40%+ humidity.
Group stage is made of 6 groups of 4 teams, meaning even finishing 3rd gives you a 66% chance of advancing to the Knockout Stage.
I remember Euro 2016, with a similar formula that meant the Group Stage was a pretty dull affair, with 25 matches out of 36 being under 2.5 goals and teams taking it easy.
It means that 69.4% of matches finished with less than 3 goals, meaning fair average odds would have been 1.44.
Heat combined with relative ease of advancing to next round: this makes me suggest to blindly back Under 2.5 goals on every single Group Stage match of this Africa Cup Of Nations.
You can currently get odds of 1.55+ on Under 2.5 Goals for 11 out of 12 first round of matches (there will be 36 in total in the Group Stage).
Good luck.
Africa Cup Of Nations 2019
- northbound
- Posts: 737
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You’re probably right about the separate thread, but I wanted to have a place to track this specific betting angle and perhaps discussing it with other.
- northbound
- Posts: 737
- Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm
A quick update on this strategy idea of backing Under 2.5 Goals (U25) in every single Group Stage match.
So far:
- 12 out of 36 matches have been played.
- 9 out of 12 ended U25.
- Blindly backing U25 on every match with £1 returned a profit of £3.23.
- Expected Value of £0.27 per match.
For the sake of simplicity, the odds were fetched from Bet365 for all matches on the first day of the tournament.
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So far:
- 12 out of 36 matches have been played.
- 9 out of 12 ended U25.
- Blindly backing U25 on every match with £1 returned a profit of £3.23.
- Expected Value of £0.27 per match.
For the sake of simplicity, the odds were fetched from Bet365 for all matches on the first day of the tournament.
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Pretty darn good. I wonder, have you looked at an historical info? Keep us updated NBnorthbound wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2019 10:09 pmA quick update on this strategy idea of backing Under 2.5 Goals (U25) in every single Group Stage match.
So far:
- 12 out of 36 matches have been played.
- 9 out of 12 ended U25.
- Blindly backing U25 on every match with £1 returned a profit of £3.23.
- Expected Value of £0.27 per match.
For the sake of simplicity, the odds were fetched from Bet365 for all matches on the first day of the tournament.
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Screenshot 2019-06-25 at 23.01.48.png
- northbound
- Posts: 737
- Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm
No historical info. It was just a hunch based on the ease of advancing to the Knockout Stage (reminiscent of Euro 2016) AND the hot weather conditions.
On the other hand, the current Copa America has a similar format where even finishing 3rd gives you a 66% of advancing. The Under/Over distribution there has been 50-50 in the Group Stage, so probably this strategy would have failed there.
On the other hand, the current Copa America has a similar format where even finishing 3rd gives you a 66% of advancing. The Under/Over distribution there has been 50-50 in the Group Stage, so probably this strategy would have failed there.
- northbound
- Posts: 737
- Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm
The second round of Group Stage games confirmed the same U25 Goals trend, with 11 out of 12 games having less than 3 goals.
Funny story: yesterday morning, looking at these stats and the Correct Scores, I was amazed to see that in spite of so many U25 results, there had not been a single 0-0. So I toyed with the idea of placing a mug acca on yesterday's three games to end exactly 0-0. It would have paid 200/1+. I didn't place it and of course all three games ended 0-0...
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Funny story: yesterday morning, looking at these stats and the Correct Scores, I was amazed to see that in spite of so many U25 results, there had not been a single 0-0. So I toyed with the idea of placing a mug acca on yesterday's three games to end exactly 0-0. It would have paid 200/1+. I didn't place it and of course all three games ended 0-0...
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Absolutely horrific games, not much to do other than scalp but the prices are terrible as well. Would be very interested in seeing the % of ball out of play, seems like some matches have a ridiculous amount of fouls and set pieces etc.
EDIT: Whoops was talking about Copa America, haven't fully woken up yet
EDIT: Whoops was talking about Copa America, haven't fully woken up yet
- northbound
- Posts: 737
- Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm
I don't have that figure, but here are some generic stats for Group Stage games in the this year's AFCON and COPA AMERICA.
Score
[Shots On Target]
{Dangerous Attacks}
Code: Select all
AFCON 2019 - GROUP STAGE (SO FAR)
21 Jun / Egypt v Zimbabwe 1-0 [8-2] {47-35}
22 Jun / Congo DR v Uganda 0-2 [2-5] {38-25}
22 Jun / Nigeria v Burundi 1-0 [3-5] {57-38}
22 Jun / Guinea v Madagascar 2-2 [3-3] {40-22}
23 Jun / Morocco v Namibia 1-0 [6-0] {82-20}
23 Jun / Senegal v Tanzania 2-0 [9-0] {61-26}
23 Jun / Algeria v Kenya 2-0 [4-0] {39-26}
24 Jun / Ivory Coast v South Africa 1-0 [3-0] {46-32}
24 Jun / Tunisia v Angola 1-1 [2-2] {34-48}
24 Jun / Mali v Mauritania 4-1 [9-2] {34-39}
25 Jun / Cameroon v Guinea-Bissau 2-0 [5-0] {66-29}
25 Jun / Ghana v Benin 2-2 [3-4] {33-31}
26 Jun / Nigeria v Guinea 1-0 [4-0] {50-40}
26 Jun / Uganda v Zimbabwe 1-1 [1-3] {33-31}
26 Jun / Egypt v Congo DR 2-0 [3-3] {26-55}
27 Jun / Madagascar v Burundi 1-0 [4-2] {38-49}
27 Jun / Senegal v Algeria 0-1 [2-2] {49-30}
27 Jun / Kenya v Tanzania 3-2 [9-4] {37-23}
28 Jun / Tunisia v Mali 1-1 [2-3] {27-29}
28 Jun / Morocco v Ivory Coast 1-0 [4-2] {44-38}
28 Jun / South Africa v Namibia 1-0 [7-0] {56-37}
29 Jun / Mauritania v Angola 0-0 [0-1] {32-33}
29 Jun / Cameroon v Ghana 0-0 [2-2] {42-23}
29 Jun / Benin v Guinea-Bissau 0-0 [0-1] {48-19}
Code: Select all
COPA AMERICA 2019 - GROUP STAGE (ALL GAMES EXCEPT TWO)
15 Jun / Brazil v Bolivia 3-0 [5-1] {84-16}
15 Jun / Venezuela v Peru 0-0 [5-7] {33-33}
15 Jun / Argentina v Colombia 0-2 [6-2] {45-41}
17 Jun / Japan v Chile 0-4 [0-5] {39-52}
18 Jun / Bolivia v Peru 1-3 [2-10] {22-57}
19 Jun / Brazil v Venezuela 0-0 [4-2] {76-23}
19 Jun / Colombia v Qatar 1-0 [6-3] {93-15}
20 Jun / Argentina v Paraguay 1-1 [3-2] {49-16}
20 Jun / Uruguay v Japan 2-2 [10-4] {58-34}
21 Jun / Ecuador v Chile 1-2 [2-3] {39-33}
22 Jun / Peru v Brazil 0-5 [1-9] {22-55}
22 Jun / Bolivia v Venezuela 1-3 [3-5] {20-43}
23 Jun / Colombia v Paraguay 1-0 [6-2] {46-30}
23 Jun / Qatar v Argentina 0-2 [2-7] {25-59}
24 Jun / Chile v Uruguay 0-1 [3-2] {38-52}
24 Jun / Ecuador v Japan 1-1 [2-8] {56-27}
- northbound
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Group Stage ended today, the strategy of straight backing Under 2.5 Goals in every single match was a success.
36 games
£1 bet per game (notional)
£7.35 overall profit
20% expected value
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36 games
£1 bet per game (notional)
£7.35 overall profit
20% expected value
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