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[northbound]

Ultimately the objective of an alert is simply to inform you of a specific situation.

An alert should not be viewed as “hey you, it’s time to enter the market”.

Before opening a position, check the odds and assess whether in your opinion they represent value.

[Kai]

Northbound, why specifically when a team is 3 goals up? And why specifically at half time interval? Just because then you can lay at very low odds? Because then you'd be missing out on strong teams that by a flukey accident let in, say, 3 goals in the first 20 mins and then strike back already before half time...

Do you trade out all your stake as soon as the other team gets a goal back or wait till they reduce the deficit to one goal? (I'd guess with your selective strategy, waiting till the goal deficit is only one goal, or even for the unlikely event when a draw is reached, gives more value).

Sometimes it's not a bad idea to wait for halftime, the game resets and the 2nd half can turn out very differently as you're well aware. There's also a common theme among top football traders, that (early) 2 goal leads can often create some value as well.

[Derek27]

One of my preferred trades is laying teams that take a 3 goal lead during the first half.

When I used to tinker with football I remember quite a few occasions when a team 3 goals down came back to level the score. I bet you must have had the odd massive swing/payout using that strategy?

[northbound]

One of my preferred trades is laying teams that take a 3 goal lead during the first half.

When I used to tinker with football I remember quite a few occasions when a team 3 goals down came back to level the score. I bet you must have had the odd massive swing/payout using that strategy?

I did it quite religiously for a few months in 2016 and yes, you get used to plenty of small losses and the occasional big payout.

After a few months I was breaking even, so stopped, but still get involved occasionally now if there are two evenly matched teams and one scored 3 goals with 3 attempts and there’s still more than 45min to play.

[Speculator_3]

One of my preferred trades is laying teams that take a 3 goal lead during the first half.

When I used to tinker with football I remember quite a few occasions when a team 3 goals down came back to level the score. I bet you must have had the odd massive swing/payout using that strategy?

I did it quite religiously for a few months in 2016 and yes, you get used to plenty of small losses and the occasional big payout.

After a few months I was breaking even, so stopped, but still get involved occasionally now if there are two evenly matched teams and one scored 3 goals with 3 attempts and there’s still more than 45min to play.

Do you remember how many matches you traded before you came to the conclusion that you are only breaking even?

[northbound]

Do you remember how many matches you traded before you came to the conclusion that you are only breaking even?

Probably between 200-500 matches over a period of 6 months.

From what I recall, I was also often laying teams 2 goals up with 20min to go, if they were actively creating scoring opportunities.

[Kai]

Do you remember how many matches you traded before you came to the conclusion that you are only breaking even?

Probably between 200-500 matches over a period of 6 months.

From what I recall, I was also often laying teams 2 goals up with 20min to go, if they were actively creating scoring opportunities.

What kinda price were you looking to jump on with those? Or were you for the most part ignoring the price on offer?

Nice work with the bot alerts btw, not many would share these.

[northbound]

What kinda price were you looking to jump on with those? Or were you for the most part ignoring the price on offer?

Nice work with the bot alerts btw, not many would share these.

Thanks Kai.

Usually I checked the odds and if they felt low I layed right away. If they felt high, I offered a lower price until matched, especially if the game was still in the first half.

BTW do you always watch the match for a while before entering a trade or also dive in simply because of stats/metrics you saw for example on Sofascore?

[Kai]

I feel that's a good approach, from what I've seen most people ignore the prices and just trade what they think is going to happen.

I prefer not to watch a game if I don't have to, you can usually get a feel for the game after 10-20mins, everyone has their own style but for me personally watching every game just feels like I'm getting diminishing returns, and with that approach I would have no time to trade other markets either. If there's no obvious early inplay trend to jump on and if I'm not trying to catch that first goal, generally I like looking for weird results, undeserved goals, shock early leads etc, the earlier the better so that the result has plenty of time of reverting to mean if that makes sense, ideally with a semi free trade before time decay starts kicking in. That being said I'm more of a technical trader primarily so while I wait for a goal l I usually prefer trading the ebb and flow, particularly on the unders, a bit contrarian but somehow it works out.

[northbound]

Ebb and flow is something I wouldn’t normally associate with unders, though. They tend to go down in price except when there’s a set piece or a long injury time has been announced. What am I missing?

[Kai]

Well time decay markets like the unders aren't as robotic as perhaps they should be in their movements, there's a lot of technical traders that can effectively trade them (Psychoff is a good example since he showcased his approach on the unders but he most likely wouldn't discuss it on a public forum). There's generally a lot more depth to the inplay markets than people think, but football traders (besides the Portuguese) rarely develop strong technical ladder-based skills unless they have a lot of experience with horse racing.

[northbound]

Thanks Kai

[Speculator_3]

Do you remember how many matches you traded before you came to the conclusion that you are only breaking even?

Probably between 200-500 matches over a period of 6 months.

From what I recall, I was also often laying teams 2 goals up with 20min to go, if they were actively creating scoring opportunities.

Since you were laying at very low odds, maybe a sample of 200-500 matches is not that large to conclusively determine if you break even / make a profit/loss long term?

I am also wondering what would happen if instead of waiting for a losing team to get all 3 goals back, you would have trade out a part of your stake when the team got 2 goals back? And let the rest of the stake run till the end. Then of course you wouldn't get massive occasional payouts but you'd get more frequent trades that result in small profit... Would you still only end up at break even over a long term period?

[Speculator_3]

There's also a common theme among top football traders, that (early) 2 goal leads can often create some value as well.

Interesting - could you point me to relevant info? On this forum, there was a poster called "johnnyg" who I'm sure you know of - he flooded the forum with posts about teams scoring an early goal. But I am sure you are not referring to him though!

[northbound]

I am also wondering what would happen if instead of waiting for a losing team to get all 3 goals back, you would have trade out a part of your stake when the team got 2 goals back? And let the rest of the stake run till the end. Then of course you wouldn't get massive occasional payouts but you'd get more frequent trades that result in small profit... Would you still only end up at break even over a long term period?

You make some good points and the only way to find out is, if you have enough time and patience, to perhaps give it a go, tracking every single trade manually in Excel for a year and see what the numbers say.