15.40 Sthl and 15.50 folk ... were they FIXED?

[bagata88]

I have a NH horse in training who ran a couple of weeks back. He opened at 12-1 and went off 9-2 fav.
I didn't have a bean on him and neither did the trainer - he needed the run as he is difficult to get fit at home (he didn't win!)
I would never blindly follow the money as a rule.

Let's imagine your horse is running in the race enzabella is writing about .
Smart money know ,that two horses for sure will not win -which one will win -they are completely not interested in that issue .
One of other horses have to win for sure .Will you call smart money backing the potencial winner and follow the money ?

[Iron]

I wonder whether it was engineered by the bookies.

If I were a bookie, I'd rather lay a false favourite than a real one...

Jeff

No idea at all. I was stood there scratching my head!
Made no sense at all to be honest - everyone who asked me I told them he would need the run.

[freddy]

I have a NH horse in training who ran a couple of weeks back. He opened at 12-1 and went off 9-2 fav.
I didn't have a bean on him and neither did the trainer - he needed the run as he is difficult to get fit at home (he didn't win!)
I would never blindly follow the money as a rule.

Let's imagine your horse is running in the race enzabella is writing about .
Smart money know ,that two horses for sure will not win -which one will win -they are completely not interested in that issue .
One of other horses have to win for sure .Will you call smart money backing the potencial winner and follow the money ?

Just yesterday a Horse was backed in from 5.5 - 2.0,
as you would expect in the same race there was a big drifter too from 2.8 - 6.0,

but where was the smart money in this race ???

the Drifter won the race and the streamer lost .

This is not unusual at all and is exactly why following the money is pointless, unless of cause you are trading.

[Iron]

The attached chart from a race a couple of days ago is a case in point (the horse didn't even place, btw).

The price dropped in literally 3 seconds from about 1.95 to 1.77, and over 50 K was matched in that period.

What do you guys think caused it that to happen?

Jeff

I've noticed that favourites often drop suddenly and severely in price, and often the price doesn't recover to anything like its previous levels.

[SilentDave]

Who knows! I've been sat in racecourse bars when a whisper starts for a "good thing". This spreads like wildfire - people back it, phone their mates and tell them to back it and before you know it has steamed.
Of course they invariably go on to lose (particularly if I happen to have have backed it!).
Not saying this is what happened here but it goes to show how easy it is for horses to steam for no reason particularly in relatively low grade races. This is why I would very rarely follow the money although there are some races such as bumpers where it can pay to keep an eye on the market.

[freddy]

The attached chart from a race a couple of days ago is a case in point (the horse didn't even place, btw).

The price dropped in literally 3 seconds from about 1.95 to 1.77, and over 50 K was matched in that period.

What do you guys think caused it that to happen?

Jeff

I've noticed that favourites often drop suddenly and severely in price, and often the price doesn't recover to anything like its previous levels.

If it was a few days ago, Thursday i think it was ,
then it was probably the high roller who was backing the favorite in every race for large amounts,
there are a couple of threads on here about it.
probably a footballer or someone with money to burn they never seem to do that well .

[Predicton]

This is a vexed question. in addition to all that's been said, I'm old enough to remember Flockton Grey, so races do get fixed. More recently there was the high profile case involving Keiron Fallon, whom, in my punting days I mistrusted to a great degree. It probably just doesn't happen as regularly as disgruntled punters suggest,

cheers, P

[Iron]

It should be added that the judge ordered the jury to find Fallon not guilty, as there was no case to answer.

And it wasn't as if the police didn't investigate the matter thoroughly - £10 million was spent on the case, according to Wikipedia.

Jeff

More recently there was the high profile case involving Keiron Fallon, whom, in my punting days I mistrusted to a great degree. It probably just doesn't happen as regularly as disgruntled punters suggest,

cheers, P

[Predicton]

the judge ordered the jury to find Fallon not guilty

Indeed he did