An interesting strat one of my spreadsheets chucked out today
Losing strategies wanted
- ruthlessimon
- Posts: 2095
- Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm
A tasty one!
So bad even excel's going on tilt after 400ish races
.. I've got farrr too much time on my hands
So bad even excel's going on tilt after 400ish races
.. I've got farrr too much time on my hands
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- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
I've been trying to develop something that lays favourites once the price drifts. I've looked at all sorts of trigger points based on the IPMAX data of winning favourites. If I go for the 'sweet' spot - like an early warning something may be off with the favourite - I can't make it work. If I go for an ultra cautious record setting trigger point, I win little very frequently but still lose long term.
The only conclusion I have is I should actually BACK favs on odds drift. This should lose regularly but every so often win big. I've also tried this but lost long term.
Maybe TPD is the answer...
The only conclusion I have is I should actually BACK favs on odds drift. This should lose regularly but every so often win big. I've also tried this but lost long term.
Maybe TPD is the answer...
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3240
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
zippus wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 6:09 amI've been trying to develop something that lays favourites once the price drifts. I've looked at all sorts of trigger points based on the IPMAX data of winning favourites. If I go for the 'sweet' spot - like an early warning something may be off with the favourite - I can't make it work. If I go for an ultra cautious record setting trigger point, I win little very frequently but still lose long term.
The only conclusion I have is I should actually BACK favs on odds drift. This should lose regularly but every so often win big. I've also tried this but lost long term.
Maybe TPD is the answer...
There was a poster on the forum who would back the favourite IP using automation (think it was PeterLe) and aim to get the big prices up to 1000-1. It seemed to occur more frequently that the 1000-1 odds suggested. So you could be on to something.
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Backing high and laying low in-running are about realising that prices fluctuate far more and far faster than the real world probability does.wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 8:32 amzippus wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 6:09 amI've been trying to develop something that lays favourites once the price drifts. I've looked at all sorts of trigger points based on the IPMAX data of winning favourites. If I go for the 'sweet' spot - like an early warning something may be off with the favourite - I can't make it work. If I go for an ultra cautious record setting trigger point, I win little very frequently but still lose long term.
The only conclusion I have is I should actually BACK favs on odds drift. This should lose regularly but every so often win big. I've also tried this but lost long term.
Maybe TPD is the answer...
There was a poster on the forum who would back the favourite IP using automation (think it was PeterLe) and aim to get the big prices up to 1000-1. It seemed to occur more frequently that the 1000-1 odds suggested. So you could be on to something.
A horse that has a slight stumble half way through or at the start of a 3mile race is no less likely to win or lose than it was 5s ago, but thanks to people panicking or using stops based on sudden moves the price can reach unrealistic levels quickly but briefly. TPD has only made in-running easier, people see every change in pace as an indication that it's significant and trigger really poor value bets, that's ideal for anyone who's playing the value game and continually offering those poor value prices. Winter jumps are better than summer flat racing obviously as there's for more chance of a horse to stick its nose in the mud, the price rockets, and then it recovers along with the price. Everyone using stops takes a red and the shrewder ones pocket their money.
1000/1 bets have some merit if used intelligently like PeterLe would but its a hell of a lot harder than just backing everything at 1000/1 which is a guaranteed losing idea.
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
When I say TPD has made it easier I mean because its resulted in a higher proportion of market money being IP vs PP than it was and a proliferation of naive bots.
- ilovepizza82
- Posts: 506
- Joined: Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:41 pm
- Location: Sewers
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1) lay a runner in running 20% below BSP. (not sure if its a losing system tho. Found it one of the forums. Guy insisted it worked and showed lots of daily examples. Cant remember the name of the forum tho. It was ages ago.)
2) Greyhound "system":
- lay 2nd fav 3.0 - 6.2 10secs pre off
- make sure you remove all of races that have a 1-3. Eg, A3, B2 etc
- no OR
- skip weekends
- https://greyhoundsystem.co.uk/
- I saved you £70. No need to thank me. (gh system II contains recovery system found in betbot and thats it : )
Look at that amazing eyecandy screenshot on the website
2) Greyhound "system":
- lay 2nd fav 3.0 - 6.2 10secs pre off
- make sure you remove all of races that have a 1-3. Eg, A3, B2 etc
- no OR
- skip weekends
- https://greyhoundsystem.co.uk/
- I saved you £70. No need to thank me. (gh system II contains recovery system found in betbot and thats it : )
Look at that amazing eyecandy screenshot on the website
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- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Anything with a round number eg '20' should be a red flag for anyone thinking ckearly. Why not 19 or 21.5 or better still, something that varies in a way that actually makes any sense.ilovepizza82 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 06, 2022 1:29 pm1) lay a runner in running 20% below BSP. (not sure if its a losing system tho. Found it one of the forums. Guy insisted it worked and showed lots of daily examples. Cant remember the name of the forum tho. It was ages ago.)
Ditto daily or weekly numbers.
Thankfully enough desperate people will suspend all logic when looking at bs like this to keep the money flowing our way.
You take a large number of random trades, you'll end up breakeven'ish
You then try to cut the losers, there comes the problem:
- Identifying the pattern of the losers, the tendency is to create a long term "cut" that loses more money
- eg. i'll make those big losses smaller by adding a stop loss..... !
You then try to cut the losers, there comes the problem:
- Identifying the pattern of the losers, the tendency is to create a long term "cut" that loses more money
- eg. i'll make those big losses smaller by adding a stop loss..... !
Latest greyhound trash strategy, spent a lot of thought about this setup...
Week 1 TOTAL : 3.30 for 109 bets
Week 2 TOTAL : -12.79 for 117 bets
Week 3 TOTAL : -26.00 for 131 bets
Week 4 TOTAL : -51.64 for 124 bets
Week 5 TOTAL : -61.62 for 138 bets
Week 6 TOTAL : -1.00 for 98 bets
Week 7 TOTAL : 36.22 for 137 bets
Week 8 TOTAL : -128.89 for 153 bets
Week 9 TOTAL : 4.99 for 130 bets
Week 10 TOTAL : -3.70 for 140 bets
Week 11 TOTAL : -0.51 for 8 bets
Steady loser...
Week 1 TOTAL : 3.30 for 109 bets
Week 2 TOTAL : -12.79 for 117 bets
Week 3 TOTAL : -26.00 for 131 bets
Week 4 TOTAL : -51.64 for 124 bets
Week 5 TOTAL : -61.62 for 138 bets
Week 6 TOTAL : -1.00 for 98 bets
Week 7 TOTAL : 36.22 for 137 bets
Week 8 TOTAL : -128.89 for 153 bets
Week 9 TOTAL : 4.99 for 130 bets
Week 10 TOTAL : -3.70 for 140 bets
Week 11 TOTAL : -0.51 for 8 bets
Steady loser...
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
If that happens then you know you're doing something wrong, so you try something else, and repeat. And when you really really can't think of anything else you sit there until you can think of something else because throwing the towel in isn't an option.
What you're describing is just a regular day at the office.