It's 50% if you put your bank on one coin flip, if you play a martingale you've got a 36% chance of doubling your bank or a 64% chance of blowing it.thepressure wrote: ↑Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:12 amSorry, isnt a coin flip 50%? How do you get to 36% and then what is the 50%?Derek27 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:44 pmI'd rather lose £15 than £167. Ultimately, there is no logic in the plan as the chances of one is not affected by the result of the previous. When you have a losing run your stakes will be well above average whereas when you have a winning run your stakes will be well below average.Crazyskier wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:36 pm
I say this with reluctance. because I know many other will try to blow ANY loss-recovery system out of the water, however when looking at evens shots, either to win in horse races or to place in dog races (where the favourites are often around evens to place) there is something called 'extended fibonacci sequence' that I often have a surprising amount of fun with. Move up one on a loss and back 2 on a win. Like anything, stakes make a big difference to the overall win / loss amounts, so proceed with caution.
I also warn you that you can spend many happy hours on the dogs following this for dozens of races and end up right where you started, so it won't win lots or lose lots. The only reason I mention it is it gives you a flavour of the game without risking your entire bank.
For example, a tiny bank of just £167 will sustain you through a whopping 15 losses in a row which is incredibly rare on evens shots, so it's a great learning tool with almost no chance of blowing the bank.
CS
Using a Martingale on an even money coin-flip gives you a 1 / e or about a 36% chance of doubling your bank when you would have had a 50% of doubling your bank without it. The plan you're suggesting would also reduce the chances of doubling the bank.
Recovery System
Last edited by Derek27 on Thu Jun 16, 2022 3:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
84% if you had a few drinks before.Derek27 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 16, 2022 1:12 pmIt's 50% if you put your bank on one coin flip, if you play a martingale you've got a 36% chance of doubling your bank or a 74% chance of blowing it.thepressure wrote: ↑Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:12 amSorry, isnt a coin flip 50%? How do you get to 36% and then what is the 50%?Derek27 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:44 pm
I'd rather lose £15 than £167. Ultimately, there is no logic in the plan as the chances of one is not affected by the result of the previous. When you have a losing run your stakes will be well above average whereas when you have a winning run your stakes will be well below average.
Using a Martingale on an even money coin-flip gives you a 1 / e or about a 36% chance of doubling your bank when you would have had a 50% of doubling your bank without it. The plan you're suggesting would also reduce the chances of doubling the bank.
But If you reinvest all your earnings back into
into the strategy, the probability of doubling your money will be exactly 1/2.
- Crazyskier
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I popped it in bold for you to search ''extended fibonacci sequence''. This allows 15 losses in-a-row to cost you only 167 x starting stake.Good luck.thepressure wrote: ↑Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:07 amSo advice is to play around but you'll be at breakeven eventually if youre lucky? E.g its a losing proposition Where is this detailed, i dont see how you can handle 15 losses in a row?Crazyskier wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:36 pmI say this with reluctance. because I know many other will try to blow ANY loss-recovery system out of the water, however when looking at evens shots, either to win in horse races or to place in dog races (where the favourites are often around evens to place) there is something called 'extended fibonacci sequence' that I often have a surprising amount of fun with. Move up one on a loss and back 2 on a win. Like anything, stakes make a big difference to the overall win / loss amounts, so proceed with caution.thepressure wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:10 amI know Martingale blows up very quickly, but does *anyone* run any kind of smaller recovery system with ther trading sucessfully?
If so, any advice?
I also warn you that you can spend many happy hours on the dogs following this for dozens of races and end up right where you started, so it won't win lots or lose lots. The only reason I mention it is it gives you a flavour of the game without risking your entire bank.
For example, a tiny bank of just £167 will sustain you through a whopping 15 losses in a row which is incredibly rare on evens shots, so it's a great learning tool with almost no chance of blowing the bank.
CS
CS
Nothing is more effective in calculating stakes than Kelly criterion.Crazyskier wrote: ↑Thu Jun 16, 2022 2:40 pmI popped it in bold for you to search ''extended fibonacci sequence''. This allows 15 losses in-a-row to cost you only 167 x starting stake.Good luck.thepressure wrote: ↑Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:07 amSo advice is to play around but you'll be at breakeven eventually if youre lucky? E.g its a losing proposition Where is this detailed, i dont see how you can handle 15 losses in a row?Crazyskier wrote: ↑Wed Jun 15, 2022 5:36 pm
I say this with reluctance. because I know many other will try to blow ANY loss-recovery system out of the water, however when looking at evens shots, either to win in horse races or to place in dog races (where the favourites are often around evens to place) there is something called 'extended fibonacci sequence' that I often have a surprising amount of fun with. Move up one on a loss and back 2 on a win. Like anything, stakes make a big difference to the overall win / loss amounts, so proceed with caution.
I also warn you that you can spend many happy hours on the dogs following this for dozens of races and end up right where you started, so it won't win lots or lose lots. The only reason I mention it is it gives you a flavour of the game without risking your entire bank.
For example, a tiny bank of just £167 will sustain you through a whopping 15 losses in a row which is incredibly rare on evens shots, so it's a great learning tool with almost no chance of blowing the bank.
CS
CS
If you've blown your bank you don't have any earnings to reinvest. If you've doubled your money then the probability of doubling your money is 100%, as you've already done it, or have I misunderstood?Trader724 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 16, 2022 2:11 pm84% if you had a few drinks before.Derek27 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 16, 2022 1:12 pmIt's 50% if you put your bank on one coin flip, if you play a martingale you've got a 36% chance of doubling your bank or a 74% chance of blowing it.thepressure wrote: ↑Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:12 am
Sorry, isnt a coin flip 50%? How do you get to 36% and then what is the 50%?
But If you reinvest all your earnings back into
into the strategy, the probability of doubling your money will be exactly 1/2.