I have been testing a similar idea of crossing 2 and numbers just above and below and found an edge of 2.5% over 100 runs, the problem as is stated by Peter in one of his videos that the odds are typically "about right" so we have to content with the randomness of it.
To prove this point I made an excel sheet populated with 1000 cells of random numbers between 0 and 1, then pressed enter a few hundred times and noted the sum of all 1000 and assumed > 500 = winning bets and less than 500 = losing bets. ( I never go an exact 500 result )
I was able to get deviations of up to 79 full points to the upside and 64 to the downside.
Basically from there I concluded that although a slight edge IS achieved it is not enough of an edge to overcome to large biases that a flip of a coin can deliver after a high number of trials. There is no guaranteed after 10 million spins of a coin that 5 million wins will result, theory and practice suggests it could be way off in either direction.
However, there are other ways to add to this tiny edge ( at least I believe there are ) as Dallas said somewhere, it is the selection of appropriate markets that can boost a betting strategy.
My thoughts are to limit the number of runners in the race to something like 6, 7 or 8 to use this type of idea, and to increase the distances of the races to something like > 2 mile 4 furlongs on jumps or minimum of 1 mile 2 furlongs on flat.
A further edge can be gained by avoiding handicaps or seemingly close contests and the best result is when one horse gradually asserts and wins. In form trainer with one horse and out of form trainers with the others etc.
Talking of close contests, the attached photo shows a very old race of the two best sprinters in the world about 50 yards from the finish line, the horse nearest in blue was cruising past and all set to win by about half a length to a full length. Personally I would happily bet a lung on 1.8 and maybe down as low as 1.4 in running here but something went wrong, and it was something nobody could have predicted and such things mess up systems such as the above!
If you remember this race, keep it secret and see if anyone here can guess the answer. Nothing was wrong with either horse, neither horse blew up, no third horse headed them, nobody ran out on the track, can you guess what happened?
Will post the video of the race after a while.
Back all Runners if They Trade Below 3.0 Automation Bot
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Hi Dallas
Can this bot be modified to back ANY horse that trades between two price parameters but only once and pre-race only? I'd be looking at a couple of minutes before the scheduled start time. Not interested in in-play trading. Many thanks
Can this bot be modified to back ANY horse that trades between two price parameters but only once and pre-race only? I'd be looking at a couple of minutes before the scheduled start time. Not interested in in-play trading. Many thanks
Yes, but it would be easier to create a new one from scratch rather than modify this one
All you need is a 'Place back bet' or 'place lay bet' rule applied to Every selection
Then add two 'Fixed Odds Conditions' as shown in this post
viewtopic.php?f=47&t=17622
Thanks Dallas, that worked a treat!Dallas wrote: ↑Mon May 30, 2022 1:01 pmYes, but it would be easier to create a new one from scratch rather than modify this one
All you need is a 'Place back bet' or 'place lay bet' rule applied to Every selection
Then add two 'Fixed Odds Conditions' as shown in this post
viewtopic.php?f=47&t=17622
I even won £3 in the two test races I set
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Can you change that or make a rule to only back at a certain price. Say I want to back a horse only when it reaches 2 in running, can you put a rule in so that your money is first or do you have to set a trigger so it places only when the price hits 2 in running?
You can't ensure your money is matched first, you need to use a 'Fixed Odds Condition' to test the price is <2.0 which then triggers the betiangrant230 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 01, 2022 9:30 amCan you change that or make a rule to only back at a certain price. Say I want to back a horse only when it reaches 2 in running, can you put a rule in so that your money is first or do you have to set a trigger so it places only when the price hits 2 in running?
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Dallas wrote: ↑Thu Sep 01, 2022 3:52 pmYou can't ensure your money is matched first, you need to use a 'Fixed Odds Condition' to test the price is <2.0 which then triggers the betiangrant230 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 01, 2022 9:30 amCan you change that or make a rule to only back at a certain price. Say I want to back a horse only when it reaches 2 in running, can you put a rule in so that your money is first or do you have to set a trigger so it places only when the price hits 2 in running?
I thought so, can you set a trigger where it is if a certain amount is matched at a price then that’s what triggers the bot to place a trade?
Yes, you can add a 'Set/Modify Stored Value' rule and on the Stored Value tab store the volume traded at the current back, lay or LTPiangrant230 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 05, 2022 9:07 amDallas wrote: ↑Thu Sep 01, 2022 3:52 pmYou can't ensure your money is matched first, you need to use a 'Fixed Odds Condition' to test the price is <2.0 which then triggers the betiangrant230 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 01, 2022 9:30 am
Can you change that or make a rule to only back at a certain price. Say I want to back a horse only when it reaches 2 in running, can you put a rule in so that your money is first or do you have to set a trigger so it places only when the price hits 2 in running?
I thought so, can you set a trigger where it is if a certain amount is matched at a price then that’s what triggers the bot to place a trade?
Then on your back/lay rule add a Stored Value condition to test that stored value you've just created above is greater than (whatever you set it as)
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I’ve tried to figure that out there but struggling, would you be able to add an automation download or go through it step by step please?Dallas wrote: ↑Mon Sep 05, 2022 9:23 pmYes, you can add a 'Set/Modify Stored Value' rule and on the Stored Value tab store the volume traded at the current back, lay or LTPiangrant230 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 05, 2022 9:07 amI thought so, can you set a trigger where it is if a certain amount is matched at a price then that’s what triggers the bot to place a trade?
Then on your back/lay rule add a Stored Value condition to test that stored value you've just created above is greater than (whatever you set it as)
What I’m looking for is once the automation nominated selection has more than £100 traded on it at 2 then the bot puts in a trade to back the selection at the best market price.
£100 traded at 2.0 if that's also the current best back, lay or ltp?iangrant230 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 06, 2022 11:50 amI’ve tried to figure that out there but struggling, would you be able to add an automation download or go through it step by step please?Dallas wrote: ↑Mon Sep 05, 2022 9:23 pmYes, you can add a 'Set/Modify Stored Value' rule and on the Stored Value tab store the volume traded at the current back, lay or LTPiangrant230 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 05, 2022 9:07 am
I thought so, can you set a trigger where it is if a certain amount is matched at a price then that’s what triggers the bot to place a trade?
Then on your back/lay rule add a Stored Value condition to test that stored value you've just created above is greater than (whatever you set it as)
What I’m looking for is once the automation nominated selection has more than £100 traded on it at 2 then the bot puts in a trade to back the selection at the best market price.
Or trigger it no matter what the current price is once there is over £100 traded?
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Yeah as soon as £100 is traded at 2 trigger then no matter what the price isDallas wrote: ↑Tue Sep 06, 2022 12:42 pm£100 traded at 2.0 if that's also the current best back, lay or ltp?iangrant230 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 06, 2022 11:50 amI’ve tried to figure that out there but struggling, would you be able to add an automation download or go through it step by step please?Dallas wrote: ↑Mon Sep 05, 2022 9:23 pm
Yes, you can add a 'Set/Modify Stored Value' rule and on the Stored Value tab store the volume traded at the current back, lay or LTP
Then on your back/lay rule add a Stored Value condition to test that stored value you've just created above is greater than (whatever you set it as)
What I’m looking for is once the automation nominated selection has more than £100 traded on it at 2 then the bot puts in a trade to back the selection at the best market price.
Or trigger it no matter what the current price is once there is over £100 traded?
So on your 'Set/Modify a Stored Value' rule the Stored Value tab should look like thisiangrant230 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 06, 2022 4:30 pmYeah as soon as £100 is traded at 2 trigger then no matter what the price isDallas wrote: ↑Tue Sep 06, 2022 12:42 pm£100 traded at 2.0 if that's also the current best back, lay or ltp?iangrant230 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 06, 2022 11:50 am
I’ve tried to figure that out there but struggling, would you be able to add an automation download or go through it step by step please?
What I’m looking for is once the automation nominated selection has more than £100 traded on it at 2 then the bot puts in a trade to back the selection at the best market price.
Or trigger it no matter what the current price is once there is over £100 traded?
Then on your back or lay rule you'd add a 'Stored Value Condition' which looks like this
Where I've put 100 you'de enter whatever amount you want to see traded at 2.0 before the rule triggers
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That’s great cheers Dallas, I’ve tried it this afternoon but it hasn’t triggered anything I’m thinking it could be more to do with the fact it’s so specific to a certain price, can it be set so that if £100 is matched at any price under 2 it will trigger?Dallas wrote: ↑Tue Sep 06, 2022 4:41 pmSo on your 'Set/Modify a Stored Value' rule the Stored Value tab should look like thisiangrant230 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 06, 2022 4:30 pmYeah as soon as £100 is traded at 2 trigger then no matter what the price is
SV.JPG
Then on your back or lay rule you'd add a 'Stored Value Condition' which looks like this
SVC.JPG
Where I've put 100 you'de enter whatever amount you want to see traded at 2.0 before the rule triggers