Value Bet Execution

[freeindeed]

I value bet on football. I lay odds & make back bets. I have a nice edge, but feel that I lose a lot of value with poor market reading and bet execution.

I find it hard to get my desired bet size matched on some markets, and so have been trying to get my bets on early in the hope of getting fully matched. I use Odds Portal as a guide to the current price, but often find that once the market matures closer to kick off, I have a large bet at a terrible price in relation to the closing odds.

Maybe this is just the way the markets go, or is there a way to predict the likely direction the odds will move?

Should I simply wait until around 45 mins before KO when the market has matured and take whatever money is there?

If you have your selections made and ready to execute - what would your process be to execute your bets in an effective manner?

I feel a bit lost in this area. Fear it is having a large negative impact on my bottom line, and would really appreciate any suggestions or guidance offered.

[Derek27]

I value bet on football. I lay odds & make back bets. I have a nice edge, but feel that I lose a lot of value with poor market reading and bet execution.

I find it hard to get my desired bet size matched on some markets, and so have been trying to get my bets on early in the hope of getting fully matched. I use Odds Portal as a guide to the current price, but often find that once the market matures closer to kick off, I have a large bet at a terrible price in relation to the closing odds.

Maybe this is just the way the markets go, or is there a way to predict the likely direction the odds will move?

Should I simply wait until around 45 mins before KO when the market has matured and take whatever money is there?

If you have your selections made and ready to execute - what would your process be to execute your bets in an effective manner?

I feel a bit lost in this area. Fear it is having a large negative impact on my bottom line, and would really appreciate any suggestions or guidance offered.

There is a bit of a contradiction in your first sentence. You say you have a nice edge but that the same time your market reading and bet execution is poor?

If I thought a bet is value at 2.5 I would just back it at 2.5 or higher, unless I had reason to believe it was going to drift. Or have some on at 2.5, reserve some of the bet for a higher price.

[freeindeed]

There is a bit of a contradiction in your first sentence. You say you have a nice edge but that the same time your market reading and bet execution is poor?

If I thought a bet is value at 2.5 I would just back it at 2.5 or higher, unless I had reason to believe it was going to drift. Or have some on at 2.5, reserve some of the bet for a higher price.

I arrive at my edge from a different angle, which is from patterns in big data that make profit against the closing odds. I believe that a solid approach to executing the selections could further improve my bottom line. I'm quite inexperienced in this aspect, hence the search for some wisdom from more experienced bettors.

[jamesedwards]

There is a bit of a contradiction in your first sentence. You say you have a nice edge but that the same time your market reading and bet execution is poor?

If I thought a bet is value at 2.5 I would just back it at 2.5 or higher, unless I had reason to believe it was going to drift. Or have some on at 2.5, reserve some of the bet for a higher price.

I arrive at my edge from a different angle, which is from patterns in big data that make profit against the closing odds. I believe that a solid approach to executing the selections could further improve my bottom line. I'm quite inexperienced in this aspect, hence the search for some wisdom from more experienced bettors.

If it was possible to predict which way the odds will move then that would be a holy grail in itself. If I was betting without any insider knowledge (team news etc) then I would simply prime my bets to trigger when the market is as close to 100% as possible. eg you could set them to trigger at <101% with 3 hours left, then <102% with 2 hours left, and <103% with one hour left etc to make sure your bet is placed.

[ShaunWhite]

I arrive at my edge from a different angle, which is from patterns in big data that make profit against the closing odds. I believe that a solid approach to executing the selections could further improve my bottom line. I'm quite inexperienced in this aspect, hence the search for some wisdom from more experienced bettors.

Has your data got volume info? It just sounds like you're expecting to get more money on than is available. And you'll usually get some degree of reduction in your numbers when you go from the idealised world of data to the messy real world anyway. If you're just asking for a target price then I can't see much about the execution that could be wrong..... maybe your model is over performing live?

[Anbell]

I arrive at my edge from a different angle, which is from patterns in big data that make profit against the closing odds.

If you are profitable against closing odds, I'd try to time my bets as close as possible to closing price (which is probably when the market is also most liquid?)