There's no easy way round market efficiency. If its 2.0 it's 50% going to win/lose. If its 4.0 then it's 25/75.Radio Rod wrote: ↑Sun Sep 04, 2022 9:47 pmInteresting insight on the flip Shaun. I find that at the business end of a race when the losing horses are starting to fade away the lay odds rise steadily but the back odds can vary hugely from a couple of ticks away from the lay odds to suddenly 10-20 ticks away from the lay and then immediately back again. This can be enough to trigger my stop prematurely, where it looks as if it shouldn’t have triggered at all.
It’s making my head hurt figuring ways around this so maybe I need a new approach.
It's not much of an insight really, you only make money betting (trading) by getting value bets. The situation you describe eg 10 or 20 tick moves in very short timescales probably doesn't represent the real world change in likelihood, so the appropriate approach is to maintain offers say 15 ticks either side of the current price..... and a lesser offset earlier in the race when there's less volatility.
Don't get hung up on greening and stops, if you're not doing it at a fair price then it's going to cost you money. Also, are you taking prices or offering? If you're taking then you're filling the pockets of the people making smart offers. If you're offering then that's less likely. You mention a new approach, the first thing would be to realise the market doesn't care about your position therefore its not something you should use as a decision to bet.
Imo losing new traders aren't doing much more than having multiple bets, people who do OK have understood their part in the ecosystem. It should be trading 101 but rarely if ever gets mentioned here.