Rule 4 Issues & Greening

[MartinJWilliams]

I have a multiple versions of Dallas's DOB bot set-up with different percentages, depending on how I think the horse is going to run.
The log below is from the the 2030 at Wolverhampton this evening. I used the bot to back Tio Mio, with a percentage of just 10%, expecting the price to just come in a little. The horse went on to win the race but I ended up with a chunky liability. I've tried to dissect the log to understand what happened but wanted clarification and an idea as to how to avoid this in the future.

As the bet amounts on my Betfair account don't match (Betfair shows the original matched back bet at 44.62 rather than 60) with the log and the favourite refused to enter the stalls, I'm guessing a rule 4 was applied after the race which turned a winning trade into a big losing one. Did I just get unlucky here in backing a large priced outsider for a small profit and got stung with a Rule 4 after the race finished which screwed up all of my greening or was it something else?

Trying to avoid this happening in the future. Thanks

04/12/2023 20:29:58: [G_Auto 1] : Store Value for Tio Mio: exit3 = 60 - 10% = 55
04/12/2023 20:29:58: [G_Auto 1] : £ 5.00 Back bet placed on Tio Mio at 55. Fully matched at 60. Ref: 330857394611
04/12/2023 20:32:39: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended
04/12/2023 20:32:40: Guardian has detected that the market is in-play
04/12/2023 20:32:40: Guardian has detected that the market is now unsuspended
04/12/2023 20:32:42: [G_Auto 1] : Store Value for Tio Mio: new exit3 = 48 + 2 ticks = 55
04/12/2023 20:32:43: [G_Auto 1] : Store Value for Tio Mio: new exit3 = 38 + 2 ticks = 42
04/12/2023 20:32:45: [G_Auto 1] : Placed closure bet with greening on Tio Mio by Laying 6.52 at 46
04/12/2023 20:32:49: [G_Auto 1] : Placed closure bet with greening on Tio Mio by Laying 0.48 at 44
04/12/2023 20:32:52: [G_Auto 1] : Store Value for Tio Mio: new exit3 = 20 + 2 ticks = 22
04/12/2023 20:32:54: [G_Auto 1] : Store Value for Tio Mio: new exit3 = 15.5 + 2 ticks = 16.5
04/12/2023 20:32:55: [G_Auto 1] : Store Value for Tio Mio: new exit3 = 13.5 + 2 ticks = 14.5
04/12/2023 20:32:58: [G_Auto 1] : Placed closure bet with greening on Tio Mio by Laying 0.02 at 15.5
04/12/2023 20:34:01: [G_Auto 1] : Store Value for Tio Mio: new exit3 = 13 + 2 ticks = 14
04/12/2023 20:34:02: [G_Auto 1] : Store Value for Tio Mio: new exit3 = 6.2 + 2 ticks = 6.6
04/12/2023 20:34:03: [G_Auto 1] : Store Value for Tio Mio: new exit3 = 5.1 + 2 ticks = 5.3
04/12/2023 20:34:05: [G_Auto 1] : Store Value for Tio Mio: new exit3 = 3.4 + 2 ticks = 3.5
04/12/2023 20:34:10: [G_Auto 1] : Store Value for Tio Mio: new exit3 = 1.8 + 2 ticks = 1.82
04/12/2023 20:34:14: [G_Auto 1] : Store Value for Tio Mio: new exit3 = 1.66 + 2 ticks = 1.68
04/12/2023 20:34:29: [G_Auto 1] : Store Value for Tio Mio: new exit3 = 1.65 + 2 ticks = 1.67
04/12/2023 20:34:31: [G_Auto 1] : Store Value for Tio Mio: new exit3 = 1.35 + 2 ticks = 1.37
04/12/2023 20:34:32: [G_Auto 1] : Store Value for Tio Mio: new exit3 = 1.25 + 2 ticks = 1.27
04/12/2023 20:34:33: [G_Auto 1] : Store Value for Tio Mio: new exit3 = 1.09 + 2 ticks = 1.11
04/12/2023 20:34:34: [G_Auto 1] : Store Value for Tio Mio: new exit3 = 1.06 + 2 ticks = 1.08
04/12/2023 20:34:35: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended

[weemac]

Yep, rule 4 screwed you and there's no way to avoid it that I know of. Happened to me many times so I stopped doing it.

[jamesedwards]

When a horse is withdrawn late (and not removed from the market before the off), a retrospective rule 4 deduction is applied after the race is complete.

The deduction applies only to bets placed before the market is turned in-play. There is no deduction applied to any bets placed in-play.

So your back bet before the off had a deduction applied but your lay cover bets placed in-running didn't. This meant once Betfair retrospectively applied the deduction it left you with an unexpected liability.

[MartinJWilliams]

Thanks James. I guess an easy fix for this happening again in the future is to trigger the bet 1 second in-play rather than just before the off and and this shouldn't occur again?

... feels like everything you learn along the way seems to cost you something

[Morrid4]

Hi Martin,
I'm feeling your pain this morning. Cost me £40 in the exact same boat. Obviously if he hadn't held on to win at 44/1, we would have been fine
I think what you said above might work (placing the back just in play) but the problem then is you have those heavy fluctuations once just in play which might cause the bet not to get matched so which is the lesser of two evils? The deduction was roughly 25% in the end BTW.

I haven't seen any other way around it so unless someone can reply here, I think we have to live with it.

This occurs rarely enough but of course depends on your strategy and the amount of bets you are placing so just need to factor it in.
Stick with it,
Dave

[jamesedwards]

Thanks James. I guess an easy fix for this happening again in the future is to trigger the bet 1 second in-play rather than just before the off and and this shouldn't occur again?

... feels like everything you learn along the way seems to cost you something

Trouble is, if you place a bet just after in-play then you are often subject to a much bigger spread and volatile price. Without testing, I'd expect you'd be worse off overall, than just sucking up an occasional loss from a late withdrawal.