Dutching EW Markets

[thepressure]

Is there a way to show this correctly, as the below shows me I should only lose on a couple of horses if I pick the winner, but in fact, I picked the winner and 2 places, and still lost 84p

Is there a way to correctly dutch & show the outcome of the EW markets?

ew1.JPG

[thepressure]

no ideas?

[Safeway]

Its an interesting idea you have here and I ought to look at place markets more.

I know liquidity in the place markets can be a bit tight.......is that the problem? Are you sure that the full calculated dutch stake was matched on every runner?

If that is the problem then pull up the unmatched bets from the bottom of the screen and close any at the best price available - spoils the dutch a bit but unfortunately that's commonplace

[sionascaig]

mmm - was talking nonsense in original reply

[thepressure]

Its EW tho, not the place markets differnet.

[thepressure]

No BA gurus to let me know why it's not showing properly ?

[Safeway]

Sorry - I went off on liquidity issues earlier which is still an issue in the place and each way markets no matter what anybody says.

A few years ago when I first bought BA, I tried it on 'place' horse racing place markets and it didn't work for (I guess) the same reasons its not working for you on 'each way.'

I'm straining my memory but my strong feeling is this superb dutching and bookmaking tool works on win markets only. Each runner can only have a binary result....it wins or it doesn't and if there's something in between the calculation will be meaningless.

Please anybody correct me if I'm wrong but I think your best concentrating on your other ideas.

Good luck by the way!

[Euler]

That's correct, the 'winner' tab is there to adjust the values of the outcome of the market. So for a win market it will be one, but more when there is more than one winner.

You can only use traditional dutching in a win market.

[thepressure]

Thats fair enough, any way I can calcuate some kind of dutching for EW markets?

[Derek27]

Thats fair enough, any way I can calcuate some kind of dutching for EW markets?

I'm not sure if it's mathematically possible because you have two books, win and place. Dutching involves placing precise bets to balance your book, but with EW betting you can't do that. You have the same amount on win and place.

Even some bookies don't like EW betting and only do it for public demand. Sometimes you have a maiden where the second favourite has no chance of winning but is almost certain to get placed. Therefore EW bookies are prohibited from offering odds well above 5/1 and it ruins the book.

[thepressure]

What do you mean by that, arent all odds fair representations of the given horses chance?

[Safeway]

What do you mean by that, arent all odds fair representations of the given horses chance?

I don't believe they are at all. For one you have to allow for the bookies' profit (over-round.) If on Betfair you have to cater for commission and Premium Charge for the sufficiently successful.

Even without these costs which we have to pay, we would never arrive at a 'true odds' figure because 'true-odds' simply don't exist or if they do only God knows them.

You only know what was a value bet when its run and you've received profit by winning or trading out at profit
If your horse lost or you couldn't trade out at profit then it wasn't 'value.'

I am sure that 99% of successful Betfair traders make it on 'feel' and the mathematical relationship between different sets of odds eg. back & lay or odds at KO v odds at half time etc.

[Derek27]

What do you mean by that, arent all odds fair representations of the given horses chance?

Not EW markets, the place odds are a fixed fraction of the win odds, just like bookies do. But in reality a horses chances of being placed do not directly correlate to their win odds. That's why bookies don't allow you to bet place only, or if they do they'll have an entirely independent place market.

[thepressure]

What do you mean by that, arent all odds fair representations of the given horses chance?

Not EW markets, the place odds are a fixed fraction of the win odds, just like bookies do. But in reality a horses chances of being placed do not directly correlate to their win odds. That's why bookies don't allow you to bet place only, or if they do they'll have an entirely independent place market.

When you look at place markets though these are all in line with the win odds though, the highest odd horse is still always the highest odds to place. At its core, if the horse is 100/1 to win, then its mever going to be say 2/1 to place, this is because to place/to win its got to be up the front, its got to be that end of the race, so the 100/1 horse is always around say 25/1 to place on a top 4.

All i say id like to do is really bet on the win but with some insurance for places, why I was looking at the EW markets, im just trying to limit variance.

[Derek27]

What do you mean by that, arent all odds fair representations of the given horses chance?

Not EW markets, the place odds are a fixed fraction of the win odds, just like bookies do. But in reality a horses chances of being placed do not directly correlate to their win odds. That's why bookies don't allow you to bet place only, or if they do they'll have an entirely independent place market.

When you look at place markets though these are all in line with the win odds though, the highest odd horse is still always the highest odds to place. At its core, if the horse is 100/1 to win, then its mever going to be say 2/1 to place, this is because to place/to win its got to be up the front, its got to be that end of the race, so the 100/1 horse is always around say 25/1 to place on a top 4.

All i say id like to do is really bet on the win but with some insurance for places, why I was looking at the EW markets, im just trying to limit variance.

There will be an approximate correlation but it won't be precise. If you divide the win odds by the place odds the result will vary slightly, and that would make dutching the two together impossible.