I found Edge!!

[Snopyman]

Hello everyone, I think I found my edge in the market.. Something that works for me and my mental and psychological abilities. After almost 2 years of jumping from sport to sport, many recorded markets and everything else that I believe each of you has passed here, I finally think that this is it..

Of course, I am aware that this is only the beginning, and considering my previous problems where the market annoys me and I start chasing the price, the rest you know how it ends for me

However, I haven't found the holy grail, but usually a strategy that brings a certain percentage in the long term.
I have the feeling that I am too optimistic, and I know that the market will test me in all ways.

My question is, does anyone have any advice when it comes to scaling the stakes (since the minimum stakes are currently in question), something to pay attention to, given that my tolerance for red is not good at all (at least for now).

I have to mention that it is a manual way of trading

How to break through those mental blocks, it should be easier now with a proven strategy that works, right?

Cheers!

[Kai]

How did you prove it exactly? I see some potential red flags in your post

For scaling you may look into the Kelly criterion formula, altho imo it would depend on type of edge

[Snopyman]

How did you prove it exactly? I see some potential red flags in your post

For scaling you may look into the Kelly criterion formula, altho imo it would depend on type of edge

During the previous 6 months, I have done over 3500 markets, the average profit is much higher than the average loss, also the hitrate is over 70%, even if I reveal here I don't have any problem, but I will leave it for myself anyway because it is about in a manual way that can be easily automated (that's my next plan after scaling stakes).

Yes i have heard about the Kelly criterion staking method, i will have to give myself time to do some more research, thanks!

Constant profit from month to month, I worked like a robot for the first time, I didn't blow anything on my side, as far as the edge is mechanical - as it sounded, it has nothing to do with sports, so I don't depend on statistics live or before the game, exclusively from ladders.

I hope I have clarified a bit.

[jamesedwards]

Tread very carefully with raising stakes. I've found there is often a heavy relationship between ↑stakes and ↓ROI%.

[Euler]

When I started to scale stakes I just did it very gently. It soon became apparent where the limit was as it started to affect the rate at which I was getting filled. So I stopped raising at that point and worked on variations of the strategy.

[Anbell]

Euler has it exactly right of course. DO it slowly and find other ways to profit from the same idea.

[Kai]

How to break through those mental blocks, it should be easier now with a proven strategy that works, right?

It was for me, the discipline came after the edge. Unsure if most people have it the other way around, that seemed unnecessarily more difficult, but never dwelled on it.

By "mental blocks" you mean you don't have a good tolerance for reds, like you say? But nobody really has it initially

That's why you build that tolerance, through exposure. I can understand why you say that though, 3500 manual markets on minimal stakes is a lot for 6 months, assuming it's football.

That being said, seen many people fail miserably despite developing a proven +EV strategy, they wanted to scale stakes quickly but forgot to scale their confidence first!

[jimibt]

How to break through those mental blocks, it should be easier now with a proven strategy that works, right?

That being said, seen many people fail miserably despite developing a proven +EV strategy, they wanted to scale stakes quickly but forgot to scale their confidence first!

spot on - that's the differentiator and why so many of us fail on scale!

[Anbell]

How to break through those mental blocks, it should be easier now with a proven strategy that works, right?

That being said, seen many people fail miserably despite developing a proven +EV strategy, they wanted to scale stakes quickly but forgot to scale their confidence first!

spot on - that's the differentiator and why so many of us fail on scale!

My basic position is that if you have an edge you dont need to rush to exploit it

[Snopyman]

How to break through those mental blocks, it should be easier now with a proven strategy that works, right?

It was for me, the discipline came after the edge. Unsure if most people have it the other way around, that seemed unnecessarily more difficult, but never dwelled on it.

By "mental blocks" you mean you don't have a good tolerance for reds, like you say? But nobody really has it initially

That's why you build that tolerance, through exposure. I can understand why you say that though, 3500 manual markets on minimal stakes is a lot for 6 months, assuming it's football.

That being said, seen many people fail miserably despite developing a proven +EV strategy, they wanted to scale stakes quickly but forgot to scale their confidence first!

Very nicely said, you gave me a good picture not to rush raising the stakes.
Hvala puno drug:)

Thank you very much everyone for the advice, it helped me a lot to get a clearer picture.

Cheers!

[Kai]

Of course, I am aware that this is only the beginning, and considering my previous problems where the market annoys me and I start chasing the price, the rest you know how it ends for me

Tbh if you want a clearer picture you just have to look at your previous posts. I've had a glance at a couple of your opening ones in the meantime and can see why you feel annoyed and why you feel like you have no tolerance for losses.

How could you build any tolerance if you don't even have any losses? You basically had 98% strike rates on all your P&L's here and your only losses came from chasing losses, which were probably a direct result of this imbalance, so basically your only real exposures to losses were traumatic experiences.

You simply have to accept that losses are an integral part of profitable trading, not only did you not need such high strike rates but they can also work against you. Imagine a trader being always right 100% of the time, it doesn't sound very healthy for the mind, does it, if he knows how to win but doesn't know how to lose. There has to be a level of maturity as well, and that is coming from someone that posted 1000 memes We can't just throw a tantrum every time a trade goes against us like a spoiled brat or a dopamine addict, we have to man up to our mistakes as well.

If you are 27 like your profile suggests it would be pretty impressive if you could build more confidence going forward with this refined edge and I realize how difficult that is, since I was around a similar age when I started as well.

So I'm speaking from personal experience here, when I've sometimes remarked in the past that I needed more losses on my P&L as well it wasn't meant to be a humblebrag remark but a genuine "issue" that I saw, albeit a good one to have. What I think it means for me is you're not pushing the boundaries of your edge, you are effectively trading away some of the edge for a smoother trading process emotionally and mentally. I think it's OKAY to make this trade-off since everyone naturally gravitates towards their comfort zone, but it is not very efficient, even if it is pretty optimized. (These are similar terms but with nuanced differences, efficient meaning trading with minimal waste, and optimized meaning fine-tuning your trading for best performance.)

In any case, hopefully now you can get used to this new balance of 60-70% strike rates

[Snopyman]

Of course, I am aware that this is only the beginning, and considering my previous problems where the market annoys me and I start chasing the price, the rest you know how it ends for me

Tbh if you want a clearer picture you just have to look at your previous posts. I've had a glance at a couple of your opening ones in the meantime and can see why you feel annoyed and why you feel like you have no tolerance for losses.

How could you build any tolerance if you don't even have any losses? You basically had 98% strike rates on all your P&L's here and your only losses came from chasing losses, which were probably a direct result of this imbalance, so basically your only real exposures to losses were traumatic experiences.

You simply have to accept that losses are an integral part of profitable trading, not only did you not need such high strike rates but they can also work against you. Imagine a trader being always right 100% of the time, it doesn't sound very healthy for the mind, does it, if he knows how to win but doesn't know how to lose. There has to be a level of maturity as well, and that is coming from someone that posted 1000 memes We can't just throw a tantrum every time a trade goes against us like a spoiled brat or a dopamine addict, we have to man up to our mistakes as well.

If you are 27 like your profile suggests it would be pretty impressive if you could build more confidence going forward with this refined edge and I realize how difficult that is, since I was around a similar age when I started as well.

So I'm speaking from personal experience here, when I've sometimes remarked in the past that I needed more losses on my P&L as well it wasn't meant to be a humblebrag remark but a genuine "issue" that I saw, albeit a good one to have. What I think it means for me is you're not pushing the boundaries of your edge, you are effectively trading away some of the edge for a smoother trading process emotionally and mentally. I think it's OKAY to make this trade-off since everyone naturally gravitates towards their comfort zone, but it is not very efficient, even if it is pretty optimized. (These are similar terms but with nuanced differences, efficient meaning trading with minimal waste, and optimized meaning fine-tuning your trading for best performance.)

In any case, hopefully now you can get used to this new balance of 60-70% strike rates

You are absolutely right, it definitely not helped me that I had a good hitrate on the horses, that's why the ratio of average profit and loss was terrible..

This edge in football sometimes requires taking less frequent reds, so it certainly helps me to get used to less red, I will definitely listen to every advice, build confidence and security (so that I don't blow something like before) on the market and slowly raise the stakes. .

You may have over 1000 memes on the forum , but posts like these are very valuable as some I have read before, you have really made a huge contribution to this community , Thanks!

[Snopyman]

Thanks for every advice it means a lot to me!