Removing Errors and Increasing Focus and Discipline

[Crazyskier]

Hi all,

So after 10 years or so of refining my auto trading on the dogs and horses daily, I noticed that Betfair's own website now has a new 'My Profit and Loss' section in account details.

I was perusing the stats below and it occurred to me that while my gains are still very modest, they are becoming increasingly consistent and growing over a meaningful time period. Those who have read my 'penny-pinching' strategy posts of some years back on this forum may recall that I have a limited bank of around £2000 which I withdraw from every month, but have until recently been over-staking fixed amounts and was for years suffering 'one step forward, two steps back. Eureka! moments became crash-n-burn!

Since last summer I have a new bank management rule that only allows stakes to be increased when the amount already won on a given strategy exceeds the new larger maximum liability divided by the daily number of events. This means that even should all 12 dog races at a given meeting lose on any given day, the loss total is lower than I have already won on the same strategy and track previously. It's a principle that I'm sure Peter et al have used for some time to sensibly scale up successful strategies, but I must confess it only really made sense to me relatively recently, and the P&L figures on the new 30 / 90 and 365 day tabs all bear this out. As you can see, this time last year I was in deficit and it's only using the more disciplined and patient stake management rules that have allowed me to achieve consistent greens across longer periods. It's also minimised the 'peaks and troughs' of my bankroll and removes the fear of loss, which for me as a long-time impulsive gambler, I have really had to work on.

I share my modest results as demonstration of the critical nature of good bankroll management and how essential it is to achieve consistent, long term gains. I hope that some newer traders might find this helpful, as I will always be grateful to Jimbit, Dallas, JollyGreen, Peter and many others who have shared invaluable advice and tips over the years.

30 Days P&L.jpg

90 Days P&L.jpg

365 Days P&L.jpg

Kind regards to all,

CS

[Michael5482]

Great work and progress CrazySkier, have you checked it against your actual P&L I had a look a couple of months ago a matter of interest. When I go into My P&L doesn't marry up to the Betting Activity Profit and Loss page 7 Days, 30 Days, 3 Months or 1 Year adding/removing commission it still doesn't add up nor does it add up to my P&L spreadsheet which is accurate to the penny.

Nice to look at but no good to man nor beast to me wish it was as it has me winning more money than I actually have.

[Fugazi]

Im curious what your barrier is to scaling. I know liquidity is an issue on greyhounds. But surely with some adjustments to the strategy you could be raking it in on other markets ?

[Crazyskier]

Great work and progress CrazySkier, have you checked it against your actual P&L I had a look a couple of months ago a matter of interest. When I go into My P&L doesn't marry up to the Betting Activity Profit and Loss page 7 Days, 30 Days, 3 Months or 1 Year adding/removing commission it still doesn't add up nor does it add up to my P&L spreadsheet which is accurate to the penny.

Nice to look at but no good to man nor beast to me wish it was as it has me winning more money than I actually have.

Thanks Michael,

I can only see up to 3 months on my usual P&L tab, but the figures seem to match broadly.

As you can see, it's a close-run thing between my horse versus dogs strategies!

3 Months.jpg

CS

EDIT: Just noticed that I've traded over 5,000 markets in the last 90 days too! This gives an indication of the very, very small gains per race. The only problem with my scaling is that while safe, I'll be 1,047 years old before I make six figures!

[jamesedwards]

Great work and progress CrazySkier, have you checked it against your actual P&L I had a look a couple of months ago a matter of interest. When I go into My P&L doesn't marry up to the Betting Activity Profit and Loss page 7 Days, 30 Days, 3 Months or 1 Year adding/removing commission it still doesn't add up nor does it add up to my P&L spreadsheet which is accurate to the penny.

Nice to look at but no good to man nor beast to me wish it was as it has me winning more money than I actually have.

They should match exactly. Either you're not comparing exact like for like dates/times or you're forgetting about other Betfair P&L, as the new profit and loss includes all Betfair channels such as sports book, casino etc.

[eightbo]

@cs Are you using unique bankrolls per track?

I use upper/lower P&L marks to decrease/increase size per strategy.

Didn't think about unique bankroll per strategy per track,
I think it would take so long to scale from small stakes per track but perhaps a switch to this approach could be useful when strategy roughly hits it's upper scaling limit

[Crazyskier]

@cs Are you using unique bankrolls per track?

I use upper/lower P&L marks to decrease/increase size per strategy.

Didn't think about unique bankroll per strategy per track,
I think it would take so long to scale from small stakes per track but perhaps a switch to this approach could be useful when strategy roughly hits it's upper scaling limit

Hiya eightbo,

Yes - each dog track has a specific strategy and stake size, though in some cases I do use the same strategy on more than one track, however the increases and decreases of stake size are dependent upon daily track-specific results and the formula above to calculate.

For horses it's the same strategy at a small number of selected tracks that meet specific criteria that have proven successful over a year+. This has different rules re scaling as I'm betting well before the off in illiquid markets and by necessity to avoid spooking the market, the stakes must be small to succeed.

I hope that makes sense. And yes, the scaling is the issue using this formula, with only a dozen or so events per track daily. That said, it's a far better scenario of consistent wins, albeit very small ones, than the frustrating peaks and troughs of more aggresive scaling that I've tried previously.

CS

[The Silk Run]

Lovely flight path CS. Commendable indeed ...
VWD Sir

[Kai]

Lovely flight path CS. Commendable indeed ...
VWD Sir

You are quite commendable yourself if you don't mind me saying, don't think it went unnoticed

Drawing inspiration from everyone and not afraid to say so, with zero hater mentality or envy etc and projecting positive vibes only

If only a fraction of people out there could do a fraction of that mindset what an incredible trading community we would have overall

[Kai]

Kind regards to all,

CS

KUTGW CS, people rarely post the details of their journey

[Crazyskier]

Kind regards to all,

CS

KUTGW CS, people rarely post the details of their journey

Not quite sure what the letters stand for, sorry.

The main reason for sharing in the newbie thread is to try to help prevent others from snatching at stuff. I'm quite sure that like me, many find their way to Bet Angel as a result of wishing to be more efficient and disciplined in their gambling, yet struggle to control their impulses, in particular when bets go against you, or strategies seem fab for a while, then bite you hard.

It's taken me well over a decade to stop chasing and iron out those peaks and troughs somewhat. Hindsight is always 20/20 but I like others I suspect, lost a LOT of hard-earned cash for a long time simply due to poor bankroll management and discipline. Removing emotion is advice that this forum is full of, but like many addictions, you have to experience it for yourself to truly learn.

CS

[Kai]

Kind regards to all,

CS

KUTGW CS, people rarely post the details of their journey

Not quite sure what the letters stand for, sorry.

It means keep up the good work!