Yeah, it really seems that way. I’ve been able to place closing bets (to make a trade) by offering money to the market, but you don’t know whether that will be possible - or if there’s anyone out there - when you enter the market.
Today's Cycling
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Lynskey888
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sionascaig
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Have dabbled in the TdF market on occasions.Lynskey888 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:51 pm
Yeah, it really seems that way. I’ve been able to place closing bets (to make a trade) by offering money to the market, but you don’t know whether that will be possible - or if there’s anyone out there - when you enter the market.
My thoughts with these markets (that are well covered) is that there will be someone somewhere sweeping up anything of value very close to real time. i.e. in the event of a crash or a rider blowing up say, so best option, once your bets are placed, is just to monitor the market via a bot and look for price spikes - using those spikes to exit otherwise could be giving away too much value.. (and sometimes using the spikes to enter the market as there is often an over-reaction)...
Anyhow, either way it's worth looking into using automation to help monitor what is going on and sending you alerts if big moves as it can be used on other markets too.
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Lynskey888
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That's much more advanced than anything I'm doing just now. Really interesting, though. I'll take a note and return to the idea in the future. Thanks a lot.
Today's Dwars door Vlaanderen saw a horrible, high-speed crash with 67km to go. Pedersen, Girmay, Stuyven and race favourite Van Aert were among the riders who went down. Only Pedersen was able to remount. I won't reveal more in case anyone is waiting to watch the highlights.
The market for the race appeared very late - on the day of the event, I think. Most of the money matched was on Van Aert. I got the impression there a lots of individual backers in the market, but far fewer people doing the laying.
Van Aert broke his collarbone and several ribs in the DDV crash. He will miss the Ronde, Paris-Roubaix and Amstel Gold. Mathieu van der Poel moved to odds-on favourite for Sunday in the immediate aftermath of the incident.
Today's Dwars door Vlaanderen saw a horrible, high-speed crash with 67km to go. Pedersen, Girmay, Stuyven and race favourite Van Aert were among the riders who went down. Only Pedersen was able to remount. I won't reveal more in case anyone is waiting to watch the highlights.
The market for the race appeared very late - on the day of the event, I think. Most of the money matched was on Van Aert. I got the impression there a lots of individual backers in the market, but far fewer people doing the laying.
Van Aert broke his collarbone and several ribs in the DDV crash. He will miss the Ronde, Paris-Roubaix and Amstel Gold. Mathieu van der Poel moved to odds-on favourite for Sunday in the immediate aftermath of the incident.
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Lynskey888
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Is anyone trading (or watching) the Tour of the Basque Country?
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Lynskey888
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Yeah, the consequences of that crash could have been much more serious and the GC is wide open as a result.
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Lynskey888
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Liege-Bastogne-Liege tomorrow, the fourth monument of 2024. Tadej Pogacar is the overwhelming favourite. This is his first race since the Volta a Catalunya on 24th March where he took the GC and four individual stages.
Pogacar has traded between an early price of 1.7 (shortly after the market opened) and a low of 1.53. There's been enthusiastic backing of the Slovenian with punters taking whatever prices have been on offer. The layers have been much cagier with about a grand's worth of back requests above 1.65 still sitting in the market. The bookies have shortened their prices on Pogacar, too.
Eurosport coverage starts at 12:30pm on Sunday.
Pogacar has traded between an early price of 1.7 (shortly after the market opened) and a low of 1.53. There's been enthusiastic backing of the Slovenian with punters taking whatever prices have been on offer. The layers have been much cagier with about a grand's worth of back requests above 1.65 still sitting in the market. The bookies have shortened their prices on Pogacar, too.
Eurosport coverage starts at 12:30pm on Sunday.
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Lynskey888
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I've been doing OK in cycling markets, learning along the way and taking a little over 500 quids' worth of profit since my first trade at Milan-San Remo in March. The Giro d'Italia has not been so rosy. I've handed back about £160 over the last week. Today's effort was feeble, so poor in fact that I feel the need to vent. Move along if you're offended by stupidity. 
Stage 7 today, an individual time trial over 40.6km. Bet365 initially had former world time trial champion Filippo Ganna as favourite with race leader Tadej Pogacar second in the betting at 6/4. That lasted about half an hour before they shortened the Slovenian to evens which made him the new market leader. Other bookies started with Pogacar as the odds on favourite. By the time Betfair added the stage winner market, Pogacar was trading around 1.9. He was gradually backed into 1.7s overnight.
Why the difference of opinion? Well, the parcours featured 30km of flat roads (thought to favour powerfully-built TT specialist Ganna) followed by a 10km uphill finale containing a steep 1.3km section with average gradients of 10.5% (thought to favour GC man Pogacar.)
I stayed out of the market till it went in-play. Ganna set a blistering time of 52:01, nearly two minutes faster than the previous leading rider at that point. Anyone who backed Ganna at 3.0 upwards was in a great position as his price came in to around 1.5. I entered at this point by backing Ganna, surmising that no-one bar Pogacar could threaten his lead and that Pogacar would be slower over the flat 18.5km to the first intermediate time check. This would bring Ganna's price in further and allow me to trade out for a profit.
And that's pretty much how it went. 77 riders tried and failed to beat Ganna's stage leading time. Magnus Sheffield was closest with a 52:33, 32 seconds adrift. At the first time check, Pogacar was 44 seconds slower than Ganna and the Italian's price tumbled down, trading as low as 1.06. Decent amounts of money, too, but with gaps of more than a few ticks between the prices.
Here's where it all went wrong. I had my closing order ready to go, but as I watched pictures of penultimate rider Geraint Thomas being buffeted by the rising wind, I was worried greening up was giving away value. Thomas was 52 seconds behind Ganna at the first time check and 1:27 behind at the second check. I wrongly assumed Pogacar would continue to lose time at a similar rate in the worsening conditions, but no, the Slovenian was only 47 seconds down at T2 and he more than made up for that on the climb to the finish line to take the stage win.
There was no chance to close for a red on Ganna. The price shot away from my entry point in leaps and bounds and the backing dried up. Not only did I miss the opportunity to green up by laying Ganna, I'm also fairly certain - depressingly - that I dozed through the chance to have greens on Pogacar and Ganna by backing the Slovenian. He was trading at silly prices around 9.0 as he made his way to T2.
Another learning experience. Fascinating watching the markets move and the money come in, but it's bloody annoying when you make such a mess of it all.
Well done for reading!
I feel a bit better for typing it out.
Stage 7 today, an individual time trial over 40.6km. Bet365 initially had former world time trial champion Filippo Ganna as favourite with race leader Tadej Pogacar second in the betting at 6/4. That lasted about half an hour before they shortened the Slovenian to evens which made him the new market leader. Other bookies started with Pogacar as the odds on favourite. By the time Betfair added the stage winner market, Pogacar was trading around 1.9. He was gradually backed into 1.7s overnight.
Why the difference of opinion? Well, the parcours featured 30km of flat roads (thought to favour powerfully-built TT specialist Ganna) followed by a 10km uphill finale containing a steep 1.3km section with average gradients of 10.5% (thought to favour GC man Pogacar.)
I stayed out of the market till it went in-play. Ganna set a blistering time of 52:01, nearly two minutes faster than the previous leading rider at that point. Anyone who backed Ganna at 3.0 upwards was in a great position as his price came in to around 1.5. I entered at this point by backing Ganna, surmising that no-one bar Pogacar could threaten his lead and that Pogacar would be slower over the flat 18.5km to the first intermediate time check. This would bring Ganna's price in further and allow me to trade out for a profit.
And that's pretty much how it went. 77 riders tried and failed to beat Ganna's stage leading time. Magnus Sheffield was closest with a 52:33, 32 seconds adrift. At the first time check, Pogacar was 44 seconds slower than Ganna and the Italian's price tumbled down, trading as low as 1.06. Decent amounts of money, too, but with gaps of more than a few ticks between the prices.
Here's where it all went wrong. I had my closing order ready to go, but as I watched pictures of penultimate rider Geraint Thomas being buffeted by the rising wind, I was worried greening up was giving away value. Thomas was 52 seconds behind Ganna at the first time check and 1:27 behind at the second check. I wrongly assumed Pogacar would continue to lose time at a similar rate in the worsening conditions, but no, the Slovenian was only 47 seconds down at T2 and he more than made up for that on the climb to the finish line to take the stage win.
There was no chance to close for a red on Ganna. The price shot away from my entry point in leaps and bounds and the backing dried up. Not only did I miss the opportunity to green up by laying Ganna, I'm also fairly certain - depressingly - that I dozed through the chance to have greens on Pogacar and Ganna by backing the Slovenian. He was trading at silly prices around 9.0 as he made his way to T2.
Another learning experience. Fascinating watching the markets move and the money come in, but it's bloody annoying when you make such a mess of it all.
Well done for reading!
I feel a bit better for typing it out.
Last edited by Lynskey888 on Sat May 11, 2024 1:01 am, edited 3 times in total.
It's a good read. Keep them coming. Butchering a decent position is always a bitter pill. 1.15 and below on coin flips is hardly ever giving away value for manual traders. The best of the best tend to find ways of raising the bar and delivering the goods if they are in the shake up for a stage win in the grand tours. Full gas up that climb. What a rider. Nicely done on the 500 up to the giro.
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Lynskey888
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Cheers, henbet. Your earlier observation about the difficulties in dumping a losing position proved somewhat prophetic today.
Yeah, Pogacar is a wonderful rider. Ganna was caught on camera in the hot seat imploring Pogacar to go more slowly up the final climb. I was doing the same thing (in more colourful language!) but I’m full of admiration for how Pogacar paced his TT effort to take the stage.
Yeah, Pogacar is a wonderful rider. Ganna was caught on camera in the hot seat imploring Pogacar to go more slowly up the final climb. I was doing the same thing (in more colourful language!) but I’m full of admiration for how Pogacar paced his TT effort to take the stage.